“‘Probability Theory’ Tag”,2019-11-12

Bibliography for tag statistics/probability, most recent first: 2 related tags, 106 annotations, & 40 links (parent).

• See Also
• Gwern
  • “A World Where the Gambler’s Fallacy Was True via Sampling-Without-Replacement”, Gwern2024
  • “Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, Gwern2016
  • “Leaky Pipelines”, Gwern2014
• Links
  • “Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”, Christiano et al 2024
  • “Sampling With SQL”, Moertel2024
  • “Statistical Patterns in the Equations of Physics and the Emergence of a Meta-Law of Nature”, Constantin et al 2024
  • “A Proof That HT Is More Likely to Outnumber HH Than vice Versa in a Sequence of n Coin Flips”, Segert2024
  • “How to Answer Questions of the Type: If You Toss a Coin n Times, How Likely Is HH to Show up More Than HT?”, Ekhad & Zeilberger2024
  • “Verified Neural Compressed Sensing”, Bunel et al 2024
  • “Impossible Hypotheses and Effect-Size Limits”, Tilburg & Tilburg2023
  • “Fair Coins Tend to Land on the Same Side They Started: Evidence from 350,757 Flips”, Bartoš et al 2023
  • “How Correlated Are You?”, Downey2023
  • “The Lindy Effect”, Ord2023
  • “Sciama’s Argument on Life in a Random Universe: Distinguishing Apples from Oranges”, Wang & Braunstein2023
  • “Distinct Elements in Streams: An Algorithm for the (Text) Book”, Chakraborty et al 2023
  • “Arithmetic Sampling: Parallel Diverse Decoding for Large Language Models”, Vilnis et al 2022
  • “Why Are Roman-Period Dice Asymmetrical? An Experimental and Quantitative Approach”, Eerkens & Voogt2022
  • “The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Autocorrelation”
  • “Policy Learning and Evaluation With Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo”, Arnold et al 2022
  • “A High-Dimensional Sphere Spilling out of a High-Dimensional Cube despite Exponentially Many Constraints”, Fort2022
  • “Learning in High Dimension Always Amounts to Extrapolation”, Balestriero et al 2021
  • “Can Humans Perform Mental Regression on a Graph? Accuracy and Bias in the Perception of Scatterplots”, Ciccione & Dehaene2021
  • “The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”, Tosh et al 2021
  • “A New Coefficient of Correlation”, Chatterjee2020
  • “Monte Carlo Gradient Estimation in Machine Learning”, Mohamed et al 2019
  • “Going Critical”, Simler2019
  • “Follow-Up: I Found Two Identical Packs of Skittles, among 468 Packs With a Total of 27,740 Skittles”, Farmer2019
  • “Scale-Free Networks Are Rare”, Broido & Clauset2019
  • “Finite Mixture Models”, McLachlan et al 2019
  • “Statistical Aspects of Wasserstein Distances”, Panaretos & Zemel2019
  • “Test Driving ‘Power of Two Random Choices’ Load Balancing”, Tarreau2019
  • “Tweedie Gradient Boosting for Extremely Unbalanced Zero-Inflated Data”, Zhou et al 2018
  • “How to Shuffle a Big Dataset”, Hardin2018
  • “Logistic Regression Is Not Fucked”, Westfall2018
  • “Information Flow Reveals Prediction Limits in Online Social Activity”, Bagrow et al 2017
  • “Requiem for a Shuffle: Why Steve Jobs Told Me He Loved the Littlest IPod—And Why We’re Going to Miss It”, Levy2017
  • “Varieties of Confidence Intervals”, Cousineau2017
  • “Asymptotically Optimal Amplifiers for the Moran Process”, Goldberg et al 2016
  • “Amplifiers and Suppressors of Selection for the Moran Process on Undirected Graphs”, Giakkoupis2016
  • “Categorical Reparameterization With Gumbel-Softmax”, Jang et al 2016
  • “The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables”, Maddison et al 2016
  • “Yule’s ‘Nonsense Correlation’ Solved!”, Ernst et al 2016
  • “Amplifiers for the Moran Process”, Galanis et al 2015
  • “Practical Probabilistic Programming With Monads”, Ścibior et al 2015
  • “Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics”, Hindersin & Traulsen2015
  • “What Teachers Should Know about the Bootstrap: Resampling in the Undergraduate Statistics Curriculum”, Hesterberg2014
  • “Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, Howe2014
  • “Asymptotic Expression for the Fixation Probability of a Mutant in Star Graphs”, Chalub2014
  • “Universality of Fixation Probabilities in Randomly Structured Populations”, Adlam & Nowak2014
  • “Fixation Probabilities on Superstars, Revisited and Revised”, Jamieson-Lane & Hauert2013
  • “On the Distribution of Job Performance: The Role of Measurement Characteristics in Observed Departures from Normality”, Beck et al 2013
  • “Star Performers in 21^st Century Organizations”, Aguinis & O’Boyle2013
  • “Stein’s Paradox [Blog]”, Wasserman2013
  • “Page Weight Matters”, Zacharias2012
  • “Indefinite Survival through Backup Copies”, Sandberg & Armstrong2012
  • “Predicting the Outcome of Roulette”, Small & Tse2012
  • “Uniform Random Generation of Large Acyclic Digraphs”, Kuipers & Moffa2012
  • “Counting YouTube Videos via Random Prefix Sampling”, Zhou et al 2011
  • “Emergence of Good Conduct, Scaling and Zipf Laws in Human Behavioral Sequences in an Online World”, Thurner et al 2011
  • “Quality of Random Number Generators Affects Results of Monte Carlo Simulations for Organic and Biological Systems”, Click et al 2011
  • “A New Car-Following Model Yielding Log-Normal Type Headways Distributions”, Li et al 2010
  • “Does Your IPod Really Play Favorites?”, Froelich et al 2009
  • “When to Stop: How to Gamble If You Must—The Mathematics of Optimal Stopping”, Hill2009
  • “Optimal Stopping of a Brownian Bridge”, Ekström & Wanntorp2009
  • “Weldon’s Dice, Automated”, Labby2009
  • “The Epic Story of Maximum Likelihood”, Stigler2007
  • “Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data”, Clauset et al 2007
  • “The Complex Dynamics of Collaborative Tagging”, Halpin et al 2007
  • “An Introduction to the Theory of Citing”, Simkin & Roychowdhury2007
  • “Isaac Newton As a Probabilist”, Stigler2006
  • “Modeling Bursts and Heavy Tails in Human Dynamics”, Vazquez et al 2005
  • “Continuous Parameter Estimation Model: Expanding the Standard Statistical Paradigm”, Gorsuch2005
  • “An Alternative to Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Tests”, Killeen2005
  • “Modelling the Recent Common Ancestry of All Living Humans”, Rohde et al 2004
  • “Stochastic Modeling of Citation Slips”, Simkin & Roychowdhury2004
  • “Copied Citations Create Renowned Papers?”, Simkin & Roychowdhury2003
  • “Solution to the OK Corral Model via Decoupling of Friedman’s Urn”, Kingman & Volkov2003
  • “Read Before You Cite!”, Simkin & Roychowdhury2002
  • “The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, Mitzenmacher et al 2001
  • “The Distribution of N-Grams”, Egghe2000
  • “Martingales In The Ok Corral”, Kingman1999
  • “A Primer on Regression Artifacts”, Campbell & Kenny1999
  • “The Ok Corral And The Power Of The Law (A Curious Poisson-Kernel Formula For A Parabolic Equation)”, Williams & McIlroy1998
  • “How Many Birds Are There?”, Gaston & Blackburn1997
  • “Another Comment on O’Cinneide”, Mallows1991
  • “The Mean Is within One Standard Deviation of Any Median”, O’Cinneide1990
  • “A Note on Stochastic Dominance and Inequality Measures”, Muliere & Scarsini1989
  • “Methods for Studying Coincidences”, Diaconis & Mosteller1989
  • “Randomness Conservation Inequalities; Information and Independence in Mathematical Theories”, Levin1984
  • “Application of the Buffon Needle Problem and Its Extensions to Parallel-Line Search Sampling Scheme”, Chung1981 (page 5)
  • “A Convergent Gambling Estimate Of The Entropy Of English”, Cover & King1978
  • “Characteristic Statistical Problems of Stochastic Geometry”, Watson1977 (page 12)
  • “Stabilization in Systems: Chreods and Epigenetic Landscapes”, Waddington1977
  • “A Markov Process of Gene Frequency Change in a Geographically Structured Population”, Maruyama1974
  • “Been A Long, Long Time”, Lafferty1970
  • “Estimating the Magnitude of Experimental Effects”, Fleiss1969
  • “How Deviant Can You Be?”, Samuelson1968
  • “A Simple Randomization Procedure”, Sandelius1962
  • “Generation of Random Permutations of Given Number of Elements Using Random Sampling Numbers”, Rao1961
  • “Chance Remarks”, Pierce1949
  • “The Limits of a Measure of Skewness”, Hotelling & Solomons1932
  • “There Is Still Only One Test”, Downey2024
  • “Visualizing Algorithms”
  • “Zero Tolerance for Bias”
  • “User Probabilityislogic”, probabilityislogic 2024
  • “Research Update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”
  • “How Long Does It Take to Become Gaussian?”
  • “The Infinitesimal Model: Definition, Derivation, and Implications”
  • “What Does Randomness Look Like?”
  • Wikipedia
• Miscellaneous
• Bibliography