Random assignment, typically seen as the standard in controlled trials, aims to make experimental groups statistically equivalent before treatment. However, with a small sample, which is a practical reality in many disciplines, randomized groups are often too dissimilar to be useful.
We propose an approach based on discrete linear optimization to create groups whose discrepancy in their means and variances is several orders of magnitude smaller than with randomization.
We provide theoretical and computational evidence that groups created by optimization have exponentially lower discrepancy than those created by randomization and that this allows for more powerful statistical inference.
Figure 5: The distribution of estimates of effect size under optimization (red) and randomization (blue) for k = 20 and effect sizes 0mg, 50mg, and 250mg (dashed lines). Note: The overlap of estimates under randomization of the nonzero effects and of the zero effect elucidate the low statistical power of randomization in detecting the nonzero effects.