“‘Decision Theory’ Tag”,2018-12-12 ():
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Bibliography for tag
statistics/decision, most recent first: 6 related tags, 252 annotations, & 69 links (parent).
- See Also
- Gwern
- “Statistical Notes”, 2014
- “A/B Testing Long-Form Readability on Gwern.net”, 2012
- “Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, 2018
- “Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, 2018
- “Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, 2017
- “Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, 2021
- “Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, 2017
- “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, 2016
- “Redshift Sleep Experiment”, 2012
- “Solving Pascal’s Mugging With Dynamic Programming”, 2019
- “How Should We Critique Research?”, 2019
- “Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, 2012
- “Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, 2012
- “The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, 2016
- “Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, 2016
- “Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography”, 2019
- “History of Iterated Embryo Selection”, 2019
- “Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, 2015
- “When Should I Check The Mail?”, 2015
- “Internet WiFi Improvement”, 2016
- “AI Risk Demos”, 2016
- “Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, 2013
- “Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, 2015
- “Ethics of Lithotomy”, 2014
- “Console Insurance Is A Ripoff”, 2009
- Links
- “Centaur: a Foundation Model of Human Cognition”, et al 2024
- “Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”, et al 2024
- “An Intuitive Explanation of Black-Scholes: I Explain the Black-Scholes Formula Using Only Basic Probability Theory and Calculus, With a Focus on the Big Picture and Intuition over Technical Details”, 2024
- “Song Pong: Synchronizing Pong to Music With Constrained Optimization”, 2024
- “An Abundance of Katherines: The Game Theory of Baby Naming”, et al 2024
- “A Cellular Basis for Mapping Behavioral Structure”, El- et al 2023
- “A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax”, 2023
- “Using Temperature to Analyze the Neural Basis of a Time-Based Decision”, et al 2023
- “Combining Human Expertise With Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology”, et al 2023
- “You And Your Research”, 2023
- “Reinforcement Learning in Newcomb-Like Environments”, et al 2023
- “Conditional Causal Decision Theory Reduces to Evidential Decision Theory”, 2023
- “The Nematode Worm C. Elegans Chooses between Bacterial Foods As If Maximizing Economic Utility”, et al 2023
- “Can GPT-3 Produce New Ideas? Partially Automating Robin Hanson and Others § If You Never Miss a Plane…”, 2023
- “How Honey Bees Make Fast and Accurate Decisions”, MaBou et al 2023
- “Simulated Automated Facial Recognition Systems As Decision-Aids in Forensic Face Matching Tasks”, 2022
- “Too Much Efficiency Makes Everything Worse: Overfitting and the Strong Version of Goodhart’s Law”
- “Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21st-Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation”, 2022
- “Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, et al 2022
- “Modeling Bounded Rationality in Multi-Agent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, 2022
- “Learning With Differentiable Algorithms”, 2022
- “Revisiting the Temporal Pattern of Regret in Action Versus Inaction: Replication of 1994 With Extensions Examining Responsibility”, 2022
- “This Is Air: The ‘Non-Health’ Effects of Air Pollution”, Aguilar- et al 2022
- “The Forecast Trap”, 2022
- “Efficiently Irrational: Deciphering the Riddle of Human Choice”, 2022
- “A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety”, Adams- et al 2022
- “Which Findings Should Be Published?”, 2022
- “The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A Flexible and Portable Approach for Quantifying Predictive Accuracy With Binary Outcomes”, et al 2022
- “False Discovery in A/B Testing”, 2021
- “Noise Increases Anchoring Effects”, 2021
- “A Rational Reinterpretation of Dual-Process Theories”, et al 2021
- “Ν-SDDP: Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming”, et al 2021
- “Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future”, et al 2021
- “Strategically Overconfident (to a Fault): How Self-Promotion Motivates Advisor Confidence”, 2021
- “A Confirmation Bias in Perceptual Decision-Making due to Hierarchical Approximate Inference”, et al 2021
- “Enhanced Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorder”, et al 2021
- “TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands”, et al 2021
- “Steps of Reasoning in Children and Adolescents”, 2021
- “Learning to Hesitate”, et al 2021
- “Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, 2021
- “Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective”, et al 2021
- “Solving Mixed Integer Programs Using Neural Networks”, et al 2020
- “The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, 2020
- “Adversarial Vulnerabilities of Human Decision-Making”, et al 2020
- “Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes”, et al 2020
- “The Temporal Dynamics of Opportunity Costs: A Normative Account of Cognitive Fatigue and Boredom”, et al 2020
- “Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, 2020
- “Robust Decision Theory and Econometrics”, 2020
- “Speed-Accuracy Trade-Off in Plants”, et al 2020
- “Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice”, 2020
- “A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment With an Application to Playlist Generation”, Fernández- et al 2020
- “The Secret History of Facial Recognition: Sixty Years Ago, a Sharecropper’s Son Invented a Technology to Identify Faces. Then the Record of His Role All but Vanished. Who Was Woody Bledsoe, and Who Was He Working For?”, 2020
- “How People Decide What They Want to Know”, 2020
- “The Gambler’s Problem and Beyond”, et al 2019
- “On ‘Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science’, 2019”, 2019
- “The Vulnerable World Hypothesis”, 2019
- “A/B Testing With Fat Tails”, et al 2019
- “A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial”, et al 2019
- “Bayesian Persuasion and Information Design”, 2019
- “Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects”, et al 2019
- “Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design”, et al 2019
- “Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions”, et al 2019
- “Reinventing the Wheel: Discovering the Optimal Rolling Shape With PyTorch”, 2019
- “Test Driving ‘Power of Two Random Choices’ Load Balancing”, 2019
- “Accounting Theory As a Bayesian Discipline”, 2018
- “Test & Roll: Profit-Maximizing A/B Tests”, 2018
- “Computational Noise in Reward-Guided Learning Drives Behavioral Variability in Volatile Environments”, et al 2018
- “Effects of Non-Normal Performance Distributions on the Accuracy of Utility Analysis”, et al 2018
- “ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan”, et al 2018
- “Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning”, et al 2018
- “Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting Multi-Objective Decision Making”, et al 2018
- “Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention”, 2018
- “P-Hacking and False Discovery in A/B Testing”, et al 2018
- “How to Train Your Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Turbulent Youth in Operations Research and the Policy Sciences”, 2018
- “Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, et al 2017
- “Willpower Satisficing”, 2017
- “Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort”, et al 2017
- “Pricing the Future in the 17th Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition”, 2017
- “The Reinhardt Conjecture As an Optimal Control Problem”, 2017
- “The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, et al 2017
- “Bamboo Garden Trimming Problem (Perpetual Maintenance of Machines With Different Attendance Urgency Factors)”, et al 2017
- “Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin”, 2017
- “Was Angelina Jolie Right? Optimizing Cancer Prevention Strategies Among BRCA Mutation Carriers”, et al 2017
- “The Risk Elicitation Puzzle”, et al 2017
- “Search in Patchy Media: Exploitation-Exploration Tradeoff”
- “The Performance Pay Nobel”, 2016
- “Blood Sugar Level Follows Perceived Time rather than Actual Time in People With Type 2 Diabetes”, et al 2016
- “Brainless but Multi-Headed: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum Polycephalum”, 2015
- “Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous Control With Deep Reinforcement Learning”, et al 2015
- “Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory”, et al 2015
- “Costs and Benefits of Iodine Supplementation for Pregnant Women in a Mildly to Moderately Iodine-Deficient Population: a Modeling Analysis”, et al 2015
- “The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2015
- “When Causation Does Not Imply Correlation: Robust Violations of the Faithfulness Axiom”, 2015
- “Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, 2015
- “Selectiongain: an R Package for Optimizing Multi-Stage Selection”, et al 2015
- “Focusing on the Long-Term: It’s Good for Users and Business”, et al 2015
- “Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, 2014
- “Your Life in Weeks”, Why 2014
- “Entanglement Guarantees Emergence of Cooperation in Quantum Prisoner’s Dilemma Games on Networks”, 2014
- “On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2013
- “The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, 2013
- “Rerandomization to Improve Covariate Balance in Experiments”, 2012
- “Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, 2011
- “Utility of Human-Computer Interactions: Toward a Science of Preference Measurement”, et al 2011
- “Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, et al 2011
- “Travelers’ Types”, Brãnas- et al 2011
- “Improving Vineyard Sampling Efficiency via Dynamic Spatially Explicit Optimization”, et al 2011
- “The Time Resolution of the St Petersburg Paradox”, 2011
- “On the Heritability of Consumer Decision Making: An Exploratory Approach for Studying Genetic Effects on Judgment and Choice”, 2010
- “How to Improve R&D Productivity: the Pharmaceutical Industry’s Grand Challenge”, et al 2010
- “Drug Harms in the UK: a Multicriteria Decision Analysis”, et al 2010
- “Are Birds Smarter Than Mathematicians? Pigeons (Columba Livia) Perform Optimally on a Version of the Monty Hall Dilemma”, 2010
- “Convergence of Expected Utility for Universal AI”, 2009
- “When to Stop: How to Gamble If You Must—The Mathematics of Optimal Stopping”, 2009
- “Anp060–79 407..506”
- “Adversarial Risk Analysis”, et al 2009
- “Strategic Reliabilism: A Naturalistic Approach to Epistemology”, 2008
- “Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”, 2008
- “Convergence of Expected Utilities With Algorithmic Probability Distributions”, 2007
- “Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization”, et al 2007
- “The Guidelines Manual—Chapter 8: Incorporating Health Economics in Guidelines and Assessing Resource Impact”, NICE 2007
- “On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule—A Darwinian Approach”, Lensberg & Schenk-2007
- “The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, 2007
- “Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study”, Costa-2006
- “Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model”, et al 2006
- “Decision by Sampling”, et al 2006
- “Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, 2006
- “The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, 2006
- Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics, 2006
- “The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”, 2006
- “Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable”, 2006
- “A Systematic Review on Communicating With Patients about Evidence”, et al 2005
- “Uncertainty and the Value of Diagnostic Information, With Application to Axillary Lymph Node Dissection in Breast Cancer”
- “Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004
- “The Problem of Thinking Too Much”, 2003
- “Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data”, 2003
- “John W. Tukey: His Life and Professional Contributions”, 2002
- “DART: Revolutionizing Logistics Planning”, 2002
- “Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes”, 2002
- “William Sealy Gosset”, 2001
- “Bayesian Value-Of-Information Analysis: an Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer’s Disease”, 2001
- “The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, et al 2001
- “The Contributions of the Economics of Information to 20th Century Economics”, 2000
- “Should We Take Measurements at an Intermediate Design Point?”, 2000
- “Rational Choice Theory”, 2000
- “Averaging Expert Predictions”, 1999
- “Comparing Classifiers When the Misallocation Costs Are Uncertain”, 1999
- “Adding Risks: Samuelson’s Fallacy of Large Numbers Revisited”, 1999
- “A Representation Theorem for Causal Decision Theory”, 1999
- “A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)”, 1999
- “Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, 1998
- “‘Improving Ratings’: Audit in the British University System”, 1997
- “The Cold War, RAND, and the Generation of Knowledge, 1946–16196262ya”, 1997
- “The ‘Awful Idea of Accountability’: Inscribing People into the Measurement of Objects”, 1996
- “Comments on Tengs Et Al ‘Comparative Study of the Cost-Effectiveness of Life-Saving Interventions’”
- “Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, 1996b
- “Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Cost-Effectiveness”
- “Noise and Learning in Semiconductor Manufacturing”, 1995
- “Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence”, 1995
- “_Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory_”
- “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”, et al 1994
- “The Temporal Pattern to the Experience of Regret”, 1994
- “Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem”, 1993
- “Universal Portfolios”, 1991
- “Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles”, 1991
- F. P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers, 1990
- “‘Student’: A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset”, et al 1990
- “Weight or the Value of Knowledge”, 1990
- “The Total Evidence Theorem for Probability Kinematics”, 1989
- “Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory”, 1988
- “A Shortest Augmenting Path Algorithm for Dense and Sparse Linear Assignment Problems”
- “Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms”, et al 1986
- “Noise”, 1986
- “Can People Behave ‘Randomly’?: The Role of Feedback”, 1986
- “Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races”
- “An Examination of Two Alternative Techniques to Estimate the Standard Deviation of Job Performance in Dollars”, 1985
- “Game Theoretic Analysis of a Bankruptcy Problem from the Talmud”, 1985
- “Re-Evaluation of Decision Alternatives Dependent upon the Reversibility of a Decision and the Passage of Time”
- “Influence Diagrams”, 1984
- “The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature”, Christensen-1984
- “Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 1: General Collection”, 1983
- “Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 2: Professional Collection”, 1983
- “Belief in God: A Game-Theoretic Paradox”, 1982
- “The Variance of Discounted Markov Decision Processes”
- “What Good Are Warfare Models?”, 1981
- “Multi-Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory”, 1981
- “Reversible and Irreversible Decisions: Preference for Consonant Information As a Function of Attractiveness of Decision Alternatives”, 1981
- “The Statistical Research Group, 1942–3194579ya”, 1980
- “Prisoners’ Dilemma Is a Newcomb Problem”, 1979
- “Impact of Valid Selection Procedures on Work-Force Productivity”, et al 1979
- “Robustness in the Strategy of Scientific Model Building”, 1979
- Tools for Thought, 1977
- “Science and Statistics”, 1976
- Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy, et al 1976
- When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision, et al 1976
- “Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion”, 1975
- “Cross-Modality Matching of Money Against Other Continua”, 1974
- “The General Impossibility of Normative Accounting Standards”, 1973
- “An Evaluation of Consumer Protection Legislation: The 1962 Drug Amendments”, 1973
- “The Theory of Social Choice”, 1973
- “What Makes for a Beautiful Problem in Science?”, 1970
- “The Practicality Gap”, 1968
- “General Proof That Diversification Pays”, 1967
- “Optimal Dairy Cow Replacement Policies”, 1966
- “Systems Analysis Problems of Limited War”, 1966
- “Measuring Utility by a Single-Response Sequential Method”, et al 1964
- “Sequential Medical Trials”
- “A Model for Selecting One of Two Medical Treatments”, 1963
- “Probability, Statistical Decision Theory, and Accounting”, 1962
- “Studies of War, Nuclear and Conventional”
- Applied Statistical Decision Theory, 1961
- “Gradient Theory of Optimal Flight Paths”, 1960
- “Letter to the Editor—A Classroom Example of Linear Programming (Lesson Number 2)”, 1960
- “Rational Decision-Making In Portfolio Management”, 1959b
- “Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures”, 1959
- “Testing Statistical Hypotheses (First Edition)”, 1959
- Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics Under Uncertainty, 1959
- “An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions”, 1957
- “Evolutionary Operation: A Method for Increasing Industrial Productivity”
- “Unsolved Problems of Experimental Statistics”, 1954
- “Non-Cooperative Games”, 1951
- “The Economic Life of Industrial Equipment”, 1940
- “The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables”
- “”Student” As Statistician”, 1939
- “Presidential Address to the First Indian Statistical Congress”, 1938
- “On the Theory of Apportionment”
- “The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment”, 1933
- “Pasteurised and Raw Milk”, 1931
- “The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment [Student]”, 1931
- “On Testing Varieties of Cereals”, 1923
- “The Application Of The ‘Law Of Error’ To The Work Of The Brewery”, 1904
- “Brian Christian on Computer Science Algorithms That Tackle Fundamental and Universal Problems”
- “When RAND Made Magic in Santa Monica”
- Bayesian Optimization Book
- “In Praise of Sparsity and Convexity”, 2024 (page 518)
- “Measurement, Benchmarking, and Data Analysis Are Underrated”
- “Buy More Copies”, 2024
- “Solving Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe”, 2024
- “Jury Theorems”
- “Quantum-Bayesian and Pragmatist Views of Quantum Theory”
- “Scaling up Linear Programming With PDLP”
- “Why a Pro/con List Is 75% As Good As Your Fancy Machine Learning Algorithm”
- “The Science of Production”, 2024
- “The Battleships Game That Countered German U-Boat Attacks During WW2”
- “New Winning Strategies for the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma”
- “In Strategic Time, Open-Source Games Are Loopy”
- “Research Update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”
- “Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They’re Unbiased)”
- “Fat Tails Discourage Compromise”
- “Optimizing Crop Planting With Mixed Integer Linear Programming in Stardew Valley”
- “Leaky Delegation: You Are Not a Commodity”
- “Probable Points and Credible Intervals, Part 2: Decision Theory”
- Wikipedia
- Miscellaneous
- Bibliography