“‘Causality’ Tag”,2019-05-13 (cognitive bias)⁠:

Bibliography for tag statistics/causality, most recent first: 2 related tags, 148 annotations, & 53 links (parent).

[essay on this tag topic]

• See Also
• Gwern
  • “Against Caring About Subtle Poisons”, Gwern2023
  • “Statistical Notes”, Gwern2014
  • “Timecrimes: Time Travel In Hell”, Gwern2023
  • “Everything Is Correlated”, Gwern2014
  • “How Often Does Correlation=Causality?”, Gwern2014
  • “Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, Gwern2021
  • “Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation”, Gwern2014
  • “The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science”, Gwern2010
  • “How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern2019
  • “‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story”, Gwern2012
• Links
  • “When Machine Learning Tells the Wrong Story”
  • “Causal Inference on Human Behaviour”, Bailey et al 2024
  • “Evaluating the World Model Implicit in a Generative Model”, Vafa et al 2024
  • “Automated Social Science: Language Models As Scientist and Subjects”, Manning et al 2024
  • “Covid-19 Is (Probably) Not an Exogenous Shock or Valid Instrument”, Clement2024
  • “Robust Agents Learn Causal World Models”, Richens & Everitt2024
  • “Correcting for Endogeneity in Models With Bunching”, Carolina et al 2023
  • “A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax”, Research2023
  • “Do Models Explain Themselves? Counterfactual Simulatability of Natural Language Explanations”, Chen et al 2023
  • “Attributing Agnostically Detected Large Reductions in Road CO₂ Emissions to Policy Mixes”, Koch et al 2022
  • “The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality”, Daniels & Kupor2022
  • “Can Foundation Models Talk Causality?”, Willig et al 2022
  • “Clarifying the Causes of Consistent and Inconsistent Findings in Genetics”, Dattani et al 2022
  • “Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid”, Wallace et al 2022
  • “Sibling Comparison Studies”, Sjölander et al 2022
  • “Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models”, Kosoy et al 2022
  • “Causal Emergence Is Widespread across Measures of Causation”, Comolatti & Hoel2022
  • “Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioral Science”, Milkman et al 2021
  • “Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)”, Geiger et al 2021
  • “Testing the Structure of Human Cognitive Ability Using Evidence Obtained from the Impact of Brain Lesions over Abilities”, Protzko & Colom2021
  • “Providing a Lower-Bound Estimate for Psychology’s ‘Crud Factor’: The Case of Aggression”, Ferguson & Heene2021
  • “Is Coffee the Cause or the Cure? Conflicting Nutrition Messages in 2 Decades of Online New York Times’ Nutrition News Coverage”, Ihekweazu2021
  • “Causal Inference With Latent Treatments”, Fong & Grimmer2021
  • “Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A Systematic Language Evaluation”, Haber et al 2021
  • “Common Elective Orthopaedic Procedures and Their Clinical Effectiveness: Umbrella Review of Level 1 Evidence”, Blom et al 2021
  • “What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory”, Lundberg et al 2021
  • “The Revolution Will Be Hard to Evaluate: How Co-Occurring Policy Changes Affect Research on the Health Effects of Social Policies”, Matthay et al 2021
  • “The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”, Tosh et al 2021
  • “My Cat Chester’s Dynamical Systems Analysyyyyy7777777777777777y7is of the Laser Pointer and the Red Dot on the Wall: Correlation, Causation, or SARS-Cov-2 Hallucination?”, Armstrong & Chester2021
  • “Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More”, Stephan et al 2021
  • “Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective”, Everitt et al 2021
  • “Quantifying Causality in Data Science With Quasi-Experiments”, Liu et al 2021
  • “Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look”, Kirkegaard & Nyborg2021
  • “The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, Greenland2020
  • “Objecting to Experiments Even While Approving of the Policies or Treatments They Compare”, Heck et al 2020
  • “Commentary: Cynical Epidemiology”, Kaufman2020
  • “Generative Adversarial Phonology: Modeling Unsupervised Phonetic and Phonological Learning With Neural Networks”, Beguš2020
  • “Rethinking Causation for Data-Intensive Biology: Constraints, Cancellations, and Quantized Organisms: Causality in Complex Organisms Is Sculpted by Constraints rather than Instigators, With Outcomes Perhaps Better Described by Quantized Patterns Than Rectilinear Pathways”, Brash2020
  • “Health Recommendations and Selection in Health Behaviors”, Oster2020
  • “Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth”, Saylors & Trafimow2020
  • “Designing Agent Incentives to Avoid Reward Tampering”, Everitt et al 2019
  • “Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective”, Everitt et al 2019
  • “A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook”, Gordon et al 2019
  • “Correlation = Causation? Music Training, Psychology, and Neuroscience”, Schellenberg2019
  • “Effect of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health and Economic Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial”, Song & Baicker2019
  • “Why Scatter Plots Suggest Causality, and What We Can Do about It”, Bergstrom & West2018
  • “Using Genetic Data to Strengthen Causal Inference in Observational Research”, Pingault et al 2018
  • “Causal Language and Strength of Inference in Academic and Media Articles Shared in Social Media (CLAIMS): A Systematic Review”, Haber et al 2018
  • “Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio”, Huang et al 2018
  • “A Combined Analysis of Genetically Correlated Traits Identifies 187 Loci and a Role for Neurogenesis and Myelination in Intelligence”, Hill et al 2018
  • “Polygenic Prediction of the Phenome, across Ancestry, in Emerging Adulthood”, Docherty et al 2017
  • “Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Stable Angina (ORBITA): a Double-Blind, Randomized Controlled Trial”, Al-Lamee et al 2017
  • “Implicit Causal Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies”, Tran & Blei2017
  • “Bias and High-Dimensional Adjustment in Observational Studies of Peer Effects”, Eckles & Bakshy2017
  • “The Surprising Implications of Familial Association in Disease Risk”, Valberg et al 2017
  • “Graphical Models for Quasi-Experimental Designs”, Steiner et al 2017
  • “Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?”, Jonas & Kording2016
  • “Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—Results of a Global Index Benchmark”, Dill & Gebhart2016
  • “Coz: Finding Parallel Code That Counts With Causal Profiling”, Curtsinger & Berger2016
  • “Agreement of Treatment Effects for Mortality from Routinely Collected Data and Subsequent Randomized Trials: Meta-Epidemiological Survey”, Hemkens et al 2016
  • “Shared Genetic Aetiology between Cognitive Functions and Physical and Mental Health in UK Biobank (n = 112,151) and 24 GWAS Consortia”, Hagenaars et al 2016
  • “Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time”, Jones & Klenow2016
  • “A Test of Exogeneity Without Instrumental Variables in Models With Bunching”, Caetano2015
  • “The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao2015
  • “Mendelian Randomization With Invalid Instruments: Effect Estimation and Bias Detection through Egger Regression (MR-Egger)”, Bowden et al 2015
  • “Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions”, Krauth2015
  • “When Causation Does Not Imply Correlation: Robust Violations of the Faithfulness Axiom”, Kennaway2015
  • “When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52”, Shen et al 2014
  • “The Mystery Machine: End-To-End Performance Analysis of Large-Scale Internet Services”, Chow et al 2014 (page 2)
  • “Converting Rejections into Positive Stimuli”, Rubin2014
  • “Observational Studies Often Make Clinical Practice Recommendations: an Empirical Evaluation of Authors’ Attitudes”, Prasad et al 2013
  • “A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices”, Prasad2013
  • “The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules”, Rossi2012
  • “Correlation and Causation in the Study of Personality”, Lee2012
  • “Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, Lewis & Reiley2011
  • “Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Lewis et al 2011
  • “The Possibility of Unmeasured Confounding Variables in Observational Studies: a Forgotten Fact?”, Byrd & Ho2011
  • “Deming, Data and Observational Studies”
  • “Overestimation of the Effects of Adherence on Outcomes: a Case Study in Healthy User Bias and Hypertension”, LaFleur et al 2011
  • “Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology”, Foster2010
  • “Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins”, McGue et al 2010
  • “Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities”
  • “Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”, Ziliak2008
  • “Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare”, Knight2008
  • “Clustered Environments and Randomized Genes: A Fundamental Distinction between Conventional and Genetic Epidemiology”, Smith et al 2007
  • “Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception”, Körding et al 2007
  • “How Close Is Close Enough? Evaluating Propensity Score Matching Using Data from a Class Size Reduction Experiment”, Wilde & Hollister2007
  • “Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments”, Rutter2007
  • “Personality and the Prediction of Consequential Outcomes”, Ozer & Benet-Martínez2006
  • “Comparison of Evidence on Harms of Medical Interventions in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Papanikolaou et al 2006
  • “Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research”, Ioannidis2005
  • “Looking to the 21^st Century: Have We Learned from Our Mistakes, or Are We Doomed to Compound Them?”, Shapiro2004
  • “New Evidence for the Theory of the Stork”, Höfer2004
  • “Observational versus Randomized Trial Evidence”, Lawlor2004
  • “Testing Hypotheses about the Relationship between Cannabis Use and Psychosis”, Degenhardt et al 2003
  • “Personal Reflections on Lessons Learned from Randomized Trials Involving Newborn Infants, 1951^–₁₆1967_57ya”, Silverman2003
  • “Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review”, Glazerman et al 2002
  • “It Pays to Be Ignorant: A Simple Political Economy of Rigorous Program Evaluation”, Pritchett2002
  • “Can Nonexperimental Comparison Group Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-To-Work Programs? MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology”, Bloom et al 2002
  • “Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Ioannidis et al 2001
  • “Crosstalk and Specificity in Signaling: Are We Crosstalking Ourselves into General Confusion?”, Dumont et al 2001
  • “Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)”, Matthews2001
  • “Study Design and Estimates of Effectiveness”, MacLehose et al 2000
  • “Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs”, Dehejia & Wahba1999
  • “Interpreting the Evidence: Choosing between Randomized and Non-Randomized Studies”, McKee et al 1999
  • “Superadditive Correlation”, Giraud et al 1999
  • “Causality in Complex Systems”, Wagner1999
  • “Spurious Precision? Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies”, Egger et al 1998
  • “Choosing Between Randomized and Non-Randomized Studies”, Britton et al 1998
  • “Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine”, Altman1998
  • “The Unpredictability Paradox: Review of Empirical Comparisons of Randomized and Non-Randomized Clinical Trials”, Kunz & Oxman1998
  • “There Is a Time and a Place for Significance Testing”, Mulaik et al 1997
  • “Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods”, Friedlander & Robins1995
  • “Inferring the Direction of Causation in Cross-Sectional Twin Data: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations”, Duffy & Martin1994
  • “Testing Hypotheses about Direction of Causation Using Cross-Sectional Family Data”, Heath et al 1993
  • “Bias in Relative Odds Estimation owing to Imprecise Measurement of Correlated Exposures”, Phillips & Smith1992
  • “Smoking As ‘Independent’ Risk Factor for Suicide: Illustration of an Artifact from Observational Epidemiology?”, Smith et al 1992
  • “How Independent Are ‘Independent’ Effects? Relative Risk Estimation When Correlated Exposures Are Measured Imprecisely”, Phillips & Smith1991
  • “Developing Improved Observational Methods for Evaluating Therapeutic Effectiveness”, Horwitz et al 1990
  • “Memories of the British Streptomycin Trial in Tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial”, Hill1990
  • “The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs”, Fraker & Maynard1987
  • “Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs With Experimental Data”, LaLonde1986
  • “Why Do We Need Some Large, Simple Randomized Trials?”, Yusuf et al 1984
  • “Essence of Statistics (Second Edition)”, Loftus & Loftus1982
  • “The Paradoxes of Time Travel”, Lewis1976
  • Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins, Loehlin & Nichols1976
  • “On the Alleged Falsity of the Null Hypothesis”, Oakes1975
  • “Theory Confirmation in Psychology”, Swoyer & Monson1975
  • “On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses”, Keuth1973
  • “The Correlation between Targets and Instruments”, Peston1972
  • “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region”, Tobler1970
  • “Use and Abuse of Regression”, Box1966
  • “Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series”, Ames & Reiter1961
  • “The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test”, Rozeboom1960
  • “Cigarettes, Cancer, And Statistics”, Fisher1958
  • “The Influence of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers’ on the Development of the Science of Statistics”, Yates1951
  • “‘Superstition’ in the Pigeon”, Skinner1948
  • “A New Measure of Introversion-Extroversion”, Evans & McConnell1941
  • “”Student” As Statistician”, Pearson1939
  • “Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?–A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series”
  • “Behavior Genetic Frameworks of Causal Reasoning for Personality Psychology”
  • “Force Concept Inventory”
  • “The Initial Knowledge State of College Physics Students”
  • “Inventing the Randomized Double-Blind Trial: The Nürnberg Salt Test of 1835”
  • “Intellectual Hipsters and Meta-Contrarianism”
  • “Guessing the Teacher’s Password”
  • “Confounding Variables”
  • “Correlation”, Munroe2024
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    • policy-analysis
    • causation-analysis
    • causal-modeling
    • treatment-harms
    • causal-evaluation
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