“Do Certain Countries Produce Only Positive Results? A Systematic Review of Controlled Trials”, Andrew Vickers, Niraj Goyal, Robert Harland, Rebecca Rees1998-04 (; backlinks)⁠:

Objective: To determine whether clinical trials originating in certain countries always have positive results.

Data Sources: Abstracts of trials from MEDLINE (January 1966–June 1995).

Study Selection: Two separate studies were conducted. The first included trials in which the clinical outcome of a group of subjects receiving acupuncture was compared to that of a group receiving placebo, no treatment, or a non-acupuncture intervention.

In the second study, randomized or controlled trials of interventions other than acupuncture that were published in China, Japan, Russia/USSR, or Taiwan were compared to those published in England.

Data Extraction: Blinded reviewers determined inclusion and outcome and separately classified each trial by country of origin.

Data Synthesis: In the study of acupuncture trials, 252 of 1,085 abstracts met the inclusion criteria. Research conducted in certain countries was uniformly favorable to acupuncture; all trials originating in China, Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were positive, as were 39⁄1 of those published in Russia/USSR.

In studies that examined interventions other than acupuncture, 405 of 1,100 abstracts met the inclusion criteria. Of trials published in England, 75% gave the test treatment as superior to control. The results for China, Japan, Russia/USSR, and Taiwan were 99%, 89%, 97%, and 95%, respectively. No trial published in China or Russia/USSR found a test treatment to be ineffective.

Conclusion: Some countries publish unusually high proportions of positive results. Publication bias is a possible explanation. Researchers undertaking systematic reviews should consider carefully how to manage data from these countries.

[Keywords: randomized controlled trial, publishing, China, Russia, Taiwan, Japan, acupuncture, MEDLINE, meta-analysis, periodicals]

Table 1: Results of Controlled Clinical Trials of Acupuncture by Country of Research.
Country Total Trials Analyzed Number Favoring Test Treatment Percentage Favoring Test Treatment
USA 47 25 53%
China 36 36 100%
Sweden 27 16 59%
UK 20 12 60%
Denmark 16 8 50%
Germany 16 10 63%
Canada 11 3 27%
Russia/USSR 11 10 91%
Austria 9 8 89%
Italy 9 8 89%
Australia 6 1 17%
France 6 5 83%
Taiwan 6 6 100%
Japan 5 5 100%
Finland 4 2 50%
Hong Kong 3 3 100%
Netherlands 3 1 33%
New Zealand 3 2 67%
Poland 3 2 67%
Switzerland 3 1 33%
Bulgaria 2 2 100%
Brazil 1 1 100%
Croatia 1 1 100%
Israel 1 1 100%
Nigeria 1 1 100%
Sri Lanka 1 0 0%
Vietnam 1 1 100%
[Total] 252 171 68%
Table 2: Results of Controlled Clinical Trials of Interventions Other Than Acupuncture by Country.
Country of Publication Abstracts Screened Abstracts Included Number Favoring Test Treatment Percentage Favoring Test Treatment
China 196 109 108 99%
England 329 107 80 75%
Japan 317 120 107 89%
Russia/USSR 180 29 28 97%
Taiwan 78 40 38 95%
[Total] 1,100 405 361 89%
Table 3: Results Combining Randomized Trials from Both Studies.
Country of Publication Abstracts Included Number Favoring Test Treatment Percentage Favoring Test Treatment
China 121 120 99%
England 118 88 75%
Japan 120 107 89%
Russia/USSR 29 28 97%
Taiwan 45 43 96%
[Total] 433 386 89%