“The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search”, Ruma Falk, Abigail Lipson, Clifford Konold2012-07-01 (insight porn, psychology, Hope function, survey; backlinks)⁠:

On Bayesian updating of beliefs in sequentially searching a set of possibilities where failure is possible, such as waiting for a bus; the psychologically counterintuitive implication is that success on the next search increases even as the total probability of success decreases.

• 15. The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search
  • 15.1 Standard Problems and Their Solution
    • 15.1.1 The Mathematical Long-Run and Short-Run Functions
    • 15.1.2 Further Explorations
      • Figure 15.1
      • Table 15.2
  • 15.2 Subjective Hope
    • 15.2.1 Directional and Numerical Assessments
      • Table 15.3
    • 15.2.2 Principal Assumptions Underlying Solution Strategies
    • 15.2.3 Other Strategies
    • 15.2.4 Toward a Solution
  • 15.3 The Hope Problem—Simplified
    • Figure 15.2
  • 15.4 Discussion
    • 15.4.1 Why Didn’t the Transfer Work?
    • 15.4.2 Possible Extensions
      • Figure 15.3
  • Acknowledgments
• External Links

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