“Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004 (; backlinks; similar):
Bayesian reasoning has been applied formally to statistical inference, machine learning and analysing scientific method.
Here I apply it informally to more common forms of inference, namely natural language arguments.
I analyse a variety of traditional fallacies, deductive, inductive and causal, and find more merit in them than is generally acknowledged.
Bayesian principles provide a framework for understanding ordinary arguments which is well worth developing.
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