“Blood Is Thicker Than Water: Family Size and Leader Deposition in Medieval and Early Modern Europe”, 2021-08-19 (; similar):
Are large families a liability or an asset for an autocratic ruler? In this article, we show that in medieval and early modern Europe, relatives protected monarchs from challenges from their elite groups, thus reducing their risk of being deposed. Women reduced the risk of both depositions from outside and from within the family, whereas men primarily reduced the risk of outside depositions (as well as the risk of civil wars breaking out). This is demonstrated in a statistical analysis of 27 European monarchies spanning the time period 1000–1799, which enlists new data on royal offspring, siblings, and paternal uncles and aunts. These findings not only elucidate power dynamics in the medieval and early modern world of dynastic politics but also have implications for present-day authoritarian states where institutions are weak and personal relationships retain their importance.
…In this article, we investigate this timeless problem in a particular historical setting. Using original data on offspring, siblings, and paternal uncles and aunts of 700 monarchs from 27 European states during 1000–1799 AD, we find that monarchs with more legitimate children, siblings, and paternal uncles and aunts had a lower risk of being deposed. Although some monarchs were deposed by relatives, the positive effects of family clearly trumped the negative effects. The cases of familial infighting cited above thus seem to reflect the fact that relatives were often in a better position than strangers to challenge monarchs, not that they were less trustworthy. These findings increase our understanding of dynastic politics, which characterized medieval and early modern Europe (2017), and of the dynamics of power struggles between a ruler and his closest associates inherent to authoritarian systems throughout history ( et al 2005; 2012).
…Previous research has found that European and Chinese rulers who had at least one son were less likely to be deposed (2018) and interpreted this as an effect of the succession being stabilized. Our results, which take more family categories into account, cast doubt on this interpretation. Had succession been the main mechanism, we should expect to see stronger effects of sons than daughters and stronger effects of children than siblings. A larger family likely contributed to leader survival in other ways as well, at least in the European context we analyze. Considering the relatively clear effects of daughters and sisters, marriage alliances and female relatives’ subsequent influence in their new household may in fact be the most important stabilizers among the functions we listed in the theoretical section.