“When Prophecy Fails and Faith Persists: A Theoretical Overview”, 1999-10-01 (; similar):
Almost everyone in the sociology of religion is familiar with the classic 1956 study by Festinger et al of how religious groups respond to the failure of their prophetic pronouncements. Far fewer are aware of the many other studies of a similar nature completed over the last 30 years on an array of other new religious movements. There are intriguing variations in the observations and conclusions advanced by many of these studies, as well as some surprising commonalities.
This paper offers a systematic overview of these variations and commonalities with an eye to developing a more comprehensive and critical perspective on this complex issue. An analysis is provided of the adaptive strategies of groups faced with a failure of prophecy and the conditions affecting the nature and relative success of these strategies.
In the end, it is argued, the discussion would benefit from a conceptual reorientation away from the specifics of the theory of cognitive dissonance, as formulated by Festinger et al to a broader focus on the generic processes of dissonance management in various religious and social groups.