“The Physics of Space War: How Orbital Dynamics Constrain Space-To-Space Engagements”, 2020-10-01 (; backlinks; similar):
As the United States and the world discuss the possibility of conflict extending into space, it is important to have a general understanding of what is physically possible and practical. Scenes from Star Wars, books, and TV shows portray a world very different from what we are likely to see in the next 50 years, if ever, given the laws of physics. To describe how physics constrains the space-to-space engagements of a conflict that extends into space, this paper lays out five key concepts:
satellites move quickly,
satellites move predictably,
space is big,
timing is everything, and
satellites maneuver slowly.
It is meant to be accessible to policymakers and decision-makers, helping to frame discussions of space conflict. It does not explore geopolitical considerations.
[Review of orbital dynamics: satellites are difficult to hit with any ordinary weapon because of their speed and distance, and are most easily attacked by getting into the same orbit. However, satellites are heavily constrained by their initial fuel reserve and reliant on subtle maneuvers unfolding over many orbits to gradually approach a desired point and time; a bad position or one maneuver could easily cost the entire fuel budget. In lieu of long-distance attack capabilities like powerful lasers, attacks must be planned long in advance, and, like cyberwarfare, are more likely to resemble ambushes than conventional battle.]