“Delay of Gratification and Adult Outcomes: The Marshmallow Test Does Not Reliably Predict Adult Functioning”, 2024-07-29 (; similar):
This study extends the analytic approach conducted by et al 2018 to examine the long-term predictive validity of delay of gratification. Participants (n = 702; 83% White, 46% male) completed the Marshmallow Test at 54 months (1995–199628ya) and survey measures at age 26 (2017–2018).
Using a preregistered analysis, Marshmallow Test performance was:
not strongly predictive of adult achievement, health, or behavior. Although modest bivariate associations were detected with educational attainment (r = 0.17) and body mass index (r = −0.17), almost all regression-adjusted coefficients were non-statistically-significant. No clear pattern of moderation was detected between delay of gratification and either socioeconomic status or sex.
Results indicate that Marshmallow Test performance does not reliably predict adult outcomes. The predictive validity & construct validity of the ability to delay gratification are discussed.