“Student Abilities during the Expansion of US Education”, Lutz Hendricks, Todd Schoellman2014-04-01 ()⁠:

[slides] The US experienced two dramatic changes in the structure of education in a 50 year period. The first was a large expansion of educational attainment; the second, an increase in test score gaps between college-bound and non-college-bound students.

This paper documents the impact of these two trends on the composition of school groups by ability [IQ] and the importance of these composition effects for wages.

The main finding is that there is a growing gap between the abilities of high school and college-educated workers that accounts for one-half of the college wage premium for recent cohorts and for the entire rise of the college wage premium between the 1910 and 1960 birth cohorts.