“Hidden Heritability due to Heterogeneity across 7 Populations”, Felix C. Tropf, S. Hong Lee, Renske M. Verweij, Gert Stulp, Peter J. van der Most, Ronald de Vlaming, Andrew Bakshi, Daniel A. Briley, Charles Rahal, Robert Hellpap, Anastasia N. Iliadou, Tõnu Esko, Andres Metspalu, Sarah E. Medland, Nicholas G. Martin, Nicola Barban, Harold Snieder, Matthew R. Robinson, Melinda C. Mills2017 (, , ; similar)⁠:

Meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies, which dominate genetic discovery, are based on data from diverse historical time periods and populations. Genetic scores derived from genome-wide association studies explain only a fraction of the heritability estimates obtained from whole-genome studies on single populations, known as the hidden heritability puzzle.

Using 7 sampling populations (n = 35,062), we test whether hidden heritability is attributed to heterogeneity across sampling populations and time, showing that estimates are:

substantially smaller across populations compared with within populations. We show that the hidden heritability varies substantially: from 0% for height to 20% for body mass index, 37% for education, 40% for age at first birth, and up to 75% for number of children. [ie. fertility is highly non-stationary!]

Simulations demonstrate that our results are more likely to reflect heterogeneity in phenotypic measurement or gene-environment interactions than genetic heterogeneity.

These findings have substantial implications for genetic discovery, suggesting that large homogenous datasets are required for behavioral phenotypes and that gene-environment interaction may be a central challenge for genetic discovery.