“Synthetic Fat from Petroleum As a Resilient Food for Global Catastrophes: Preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment and Technology Roadmap”, 2022 (; similar):
Synthetic fat has substantial potential as resilient food for catastrophes.
Fat requirements of the global population could be fulfilled in 1–2 years.
16–100% of the global fat requirements could be fulfilled by the end of the first year.
The product would be affordable at an expected retail cost between US$3–$9/kg.
A roadmap for the development of synthetic fat as food for catastrophes is proposed.
Human civilization’s food production system is unprepared for global catastrophic risks (GCRs). Catastrophes capable of abruptly transforming global climate such as supervolcanic eruption, asteroid/comet impact or nuclear winter, which could completely collapse the agricultural system. Responding by producing resilient foods requiring little to no sunlight is more cost effective than increasing food stockpiles, given the long duration of these scenarios (6–10 years).
This preliminary techno-economic assessment uncovers substantial potential for synthetic fat from petroleum as a resilient food source in the case of an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe, the most severe food shock scenario. To this end, the following are roughly quantified based on literature data: global production potential, capital and operating expenditures, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates and retail prices. Potential resource bottlenecks are reviewed.
Synthetic fat production capacity would be slower to ramp up compared to low-tech food production alternatives, but provides the fat macronutrient, largely absent from these. Using 24/7 construction of facilities, 16–100% of global fat requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year, potentially taking up to 2 years to fully meet the requirements. Substantial uncertainty remains on several topics including production potential, capital expenditure, food safety, transferability of labor and equipment construction. A technology roadmap is proposed to address these concerns and develop the potential of synthetic fat as a catastrophe-resilient food.
[Keywords: global catastrophic risk, existential-risk, resilient food, synthetic fat, food security, nuclear winter]
…Historical context: This work is inspired by the historic precedent found in World War 2 Germany. In 1939, during a fat shortage, a non-biological process was developed to convert byproducts of the conversion from coal to liquid fuels into edible fat for human consumption. This byproduct, known as “gatsch” or paraffin wax, is a waxy fraction of the Fischer-Tropsch liquid product containing mostly alkane compounds, also known as paraffinic hydrocarbons or paraffins. These can be subjected to a chemical reaction known as paraffin oxidation, causing the rupture of the alkanes into “synthetic” fatty acids (SFAs). Most of these SFAs were dedicated to soap production, but a part was processed into human food. These were subjected to purification and esterification with glycerol to produce triglycerides that could be refined into a synthetic margarine-like product. This was known as butter aus kohle or “coal butter” (BIOS 1946; 1968; 1968).
In normal conditions, fats of agrichemical origin are more economical to produce than SFAs due to the capital intensity of the latter. However, during the shortage conditions in WW2 Germany the “coal butter” was allegedly cheaper to produce than regular butter (Eagle Valley Enterprise 1946), presumably due to the very high price of butter in Germany at the time. Pricing data from 1939 indicate the large retailer price of margarine at 1.74 Reichsmark (RM) per kilogram (Statistichen 1939), which would be ~equivalent to 13 USD in 2020.
Production of edible synthetic fat was discontinued completely during the 1950s, but SFA production continued to develop. In 1959 the USSR decided to replace 40% of the natural fatty acids used for soap production via SFA synthesis (Zilch 1968). In 1978, over 500,000 tons of SFAs were obtained via continuous paraffin oxidation processes in Eastern Europe (Fineberg 1979). However, SFA production eventually fell out of use due to the lower cost and higher quality of agrichemical fatty acids, and has not been economical for several decades (Anneken et al 200618ya).
…Over a thousand animal trials were performed to prove the fat was neither toxic nor irritant and could be successfully digested. Later, experiments were performed on 6,000 human subjects over 3 years, which showed the product to be a satisfactory substitute for natural fat (BIOS 1946). There are reports of people allegedly consuming the synthetic fat in considerable amounts for over a year with no ill effects (1968). The synthetic fat was used by the German soldiers fighting in the African campaign and on submarines. It was also used in heavy labor rations, food for prisoners of war and concentration camp inmates and in canteen meals in hospitals (Reith & Pelzer-2002). The taste and calorific value were reportedly similar to those of butter (Der Spiegel 1947).