“Homeowner Politics and Housing Supply”, Limin Fang, Nathan Stewart, Justin Tyndall2023-11 (Georgism)⁠:

This paper examines whether homeowner opposition to nearby housing development affects local councilors’ votes on housing bills. Homeowners benefit financially from restricted housing supply through increased housing prices. City councilors, who approve housing development applications, cater to the needs of homeowners who are often long-term resident voters with a financial stake in neighborhood amenity levels.

Using data from Toronto, Canada 2009^–₁₁2020, we identify housing bills through a machine learning algorithm.

We find that councilors who represent more homeowners oppose more housing bills. In particular, councilors are statistically-significantly more likely to oppose large housing developments if the project is within their own ward.

[Keywords: housing supply, urban development, land-use regulation, NIMBYism]