“Energy Saving May Kill: Evidence from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident”, 2023-04 ():
Following the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan gradually shut down all its nuclear power plants, causing a countrywide power shortage. In response the government launched large-scale energy-saving campaigns to reduce electricity consumption.
Exploiting the electricity-saving targets across regions and over time, we show that the campaigns statistically-significantly increased mortality, particularly during extremely hot days [~7,710 premature deaths annually]. The impact is primarily driven by people using less air conditioning, as encouraged by the government. [cf. deaths from cold, government-ordered evacuation, & substitution into coal power]
Non-pecuniary incentives can explain most of the reduction in electricity consumption. Our findings suggest there exists a trade-off between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation.
…For instance, in the United States the chance of dying on extremely hot days has fallen by 75% over the past half century, and this decline can be almost entirely attributed to the diffusion of residential air conditioning ( et al 2016).
…Our empirical strategy exploits the dramatic changes in Japan’s energy policies caused by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster…The government, therefore, decided to stop the operation of all nuclear power plants, which resulted in a countrywide electricity shortage. To address the challenge, the central government launched ambitious electricity-saving campaigns, intending to reduce the demand for electricity consumption within a short period. Energy-saving targets were set that required different regions to reduce summer electricity usage by as much as 15%. The government paid particular attention to reducing the usage of air conditioning because it is the largest contributor to residential electricity consumption in Japan. For example, it was recommended to set the air conditioner at 28℃ on hot days, and people were encouraged to substitute fans for air conditioning if possible. Electricity prices were also raised to further discourage consumption. Arguably, these measures could substantially limit people’s capacity to take adaptive actions and make them more vulnerable to extreme weather shocks.
Analyzing the changes in electricity-saving targets set by different regions after the Fukushima accident, we examine the health impacts of Japan’s energy-saving campaigns. Our analyses proceed in 3 steps. First, we estimate the temperature-mortality relationship by exploiting quasi-random year-to-year fluctuations in temperature distribution within a prefecture-by-month and investigate how the energy-saving targets can change the temperature-mortality relationship. We find that exposure to extreme temperatures leads to more premature deaths and that the weather effects become greater in prefectures with higher electricity-saving targets. The mortality risk caused by electricity saving is particularly high in the summer, during which the energy-saving campaigns are intensively promoted. To account for the potential “harvesting effect” or “delayed effect”, we also estimate distributed lag models on the impacts of temperature and the energy-saving policy. If we take into account this dynamic impact, we estimate that the energy-saving campaigns could have led to nearly 7,710 premature deaths annually in Japan.
The second component of our analysis examines how individuals responded to the energy-saving campaigns. We show that the Japanese people actively searched for strategies to reduce electricity consumption following the energy-saving campaigns; they used less air conditioning (AC) and bought more non-AC cooling appliances (such as fans), as recommended by the central government. Because the use of AC is a critical instrument to mitigate climate damages ( et al 2016), these behavioral responses could help explain the large changes in the temperature-mortality relationship during the energy-saving campaigns.
The third part of the paper analyzes whether it is the pecuniary incentives or non-pecuniary incentives that changed the Japanese people’s energy consumption patterns. Facing a severe electricity shortage, the power companies across the country raised electricity prices. However, due to public opposition and heavy regulation in the power sector, the electricity price adjustment was very limited. The annual electricity price growth was only 5–6% each year after the Fukushima accident. As a result, we find that the price increase can only explain about 10–30% of the total decline in Japan’s electricity consumption. Instead, nonfinancial incentives, such as moral suasion, information campaigns, and social pressures, seemed to play a more crucial role.