“When a Town Wins the Lottery: Evidence from Spain”, Christina Kent, Alejandro Martínez-Marquina2022-11-15 (; backlinks)⁠:

For over a century, Spain has conducted a national lottery which often results in the random allocation of large cash windfalls to one town.

Leveraging data on lottery ticket expenditures, we match winning towns to non-winning towns with equal winning probability.

For towns that won in recent decades, consumption of durables increases while employment, businesses, and migration to the town decrease. An analysis of a century of winners reveals a stark and persistent population increase for towns that won after the Civil War.

Our results suggest a limited role for wealth shocks in spurring economic growth outside of large recessions.

[Keywords: wealth shocks, economic recession, randomized natural experiment]