“Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century”, Alan Barreca, Karen Clay, Olivier Deschenes, Michael Greenstone, Joseph S. Shapiro2016-02 (economics; backlinks)⁠:

This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the 20^th-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades.

There are 3 primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80℉ declined by 75%. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960.

Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day-related fatalities.

Third, using Dubin & McFadden’s discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $116.98^$85₂₀₁₂–$254.59^$185₂₀₁₂ billion.

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