“The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research”, 2009-06-10 ():
The aid effectiveness literature (AEL) consists of empirical macroeconomic estimates of the effects of development aid.
By the end of 2004, it comprised 97 econometric studies of 3 families of related effects. Each family has been analyzed in a separate meta-analysis. The AEL is an ideal subject for meta-analysis as it uses only a few formally similar models to estimate the same underlying effects. It is also an area with strong beliefs, often generated by altruism.
When this whole literature is examined, a clear pattern emerges. After 40 years of development aid, the preponderance of the evidence indicates that aid has not been effective.
We show that the distribution of results [decline effect] is statistically-significantly asymmetric reflecting the reluctance of the research community to publish negative results.
The Dutch disease effect on exchange rates provides a plausible explanation for the observed aid ineffectiveness.
[Keywords: accumulation, aid effectiveness, growth, meta-study]