This article analyzes the longest continuous price data from the ancient world, which come from ancient Babylon and stretch from almost 500 BC to beyond 100 BC. The analysis confirms the interpretation in 18 that they are market prices.
It shows that the prices of agricultural goods moved in a random walk. They rose sharply after the death of Alexander the Great in 323 BC and more gradually toward the end of the period.
The author suggests that both price rises resulted from breakdowns in the ruling government.
…The Data
The price data come from a vast archive of astronomical cuneiform tablets from the ancient city of Babylon. This renowned site first gained importance during the beginning of the second millennium BC and attained a preeminence in the ancient world that was to last for nearly 2,000 years. During the last 7 centuries of the first millennium BC, clay tablets, of which about 1,200 fragments are known, were filled with almost daily astronomical and other observations written in the Akkadian language by observers specifically trained and employed by the Temple of Marduk in Babylon.
Each day, scribes made entries on small tablets, recording on a single tablet information for periods ranging from 1 or 2 days to a few months. This was possible because clay can be kept soft and inscribable for up to 3 months (eg. by wrapping it in a wet cloth). At a later date, the scribes composed larger texts from these smaller ones, with the full-sized versions covering either an entire Babylonian calendar year or the first or last half of one (1988, 1989, 1996).
A typical half-year “astronomical diary” has 6 sections, 7 in an intercalary year (ie. one with an extra month), each covering one lunar Babylonian month. Observations began with what was considered to be the beginning of the month—the first visibility of the new moon at sunset—and continued with the monthly progress of the moon among the stars and planets. Nightly and daily weather conditions were written down meticulously because they had an impact on visibility. Eclipses, equinoxes and solstices, Sirius phenomena, and the appearance of comets (including Halley’s comets of 234 BC, 164 BC, and 87 BC) were recorded. At the end of the month, there was a final statement about the moon’s last appearance and then a recapitulation of planetary positions at month’s end, a list of the market values of 6 commodities that month, measurements of the changes in the water levels of the Euphrates River, and anecdotal historical information.
These tablets are unique among documents pertinent to the study of ancient history. They are unmatched in magnitude, sequence, and detail. Because of the astronomical content, any evidence extracted from these texts—astronomical, meteorological, economic, and historical—can be dated with certainty. And the market quotations always were expressed in the same terms, quantities that can be purchased for 1 shekel of silver. (A shekel was a weight measure, not a coin.) In addition, values of the same 6 commodities were listed in a set order: barley, dates, cuscuta [?] (called ‘mustard’ in the early translations of the diaries and here), cardamom (called ‘cress’ originally and here), sesame, and wool.
I study the data 464–72 BC, omitting one stray set of market values for 568 BC. The data contain many missing values because of the many lost tablets and the large number that are damaged or broken. The commodity summary was inscribed close to the end of a monthly unit. The last month on a tablet was at the bottom of the tablet and in a particularly vulnerable position; there are many disconnected and broken passages, not to mention lost quotations. Tablet damage and loss was random from the point of view of prices.
There are more than 3,000 observations—nearly as many observations for each of the 6 commodities as 1978 found for all slave freedom prices. The prices of barley and wool are shown in Figure 1 & Figure 2. Barley prices are measured in qa (close to a modern quart) per shekel (a standard weight of silver). Wool prices are measure in mina (close to a modern pound) per shekel.
