“Are Illicit Drugs a Driving Force for Cryptomarket Leadership?”, 2022-10-12 ():
Cryptomarkets, ie. illicit online marketplaces, have gained considerable attention from the media, law enforcement agencies, and researchers. An increasing number of studies have revealed various aspects of these cryptomarkets; however, whether drugs play a major role for competing cryptomarkets to be the market leader, has not been addressed.
Weekly sales and the number of listings for the major products on 3 leading cryptomarkets (Silk Road 2, Agora, and Evolution) were examined using Granger causality tests and interrupted time series analysis.
Not only drugs trading on cryptomarkets played a pivotal role in the growth of each cryptomarket, but also a higher increase in drug supply than in competing marketplaces is crucial to become market leaders. The relative supply of drugs plays a larger role when leading marketplaces disappear.
Law enforcement agencies should focus on monitoring marketplaces with a larger increase in drug supplies than on competing marketplaces.