“Are Illicit Drugs a Driving Force for Cryptomarket Leadership?”, Naoki Hiramoto, Yoichi Tsuchiya2022-10-12 (, , , )⁠:

Cryptomarkets, ie. illicit online marketplaces, have gained considerable attention from the media, law enforcement agencies, and researchers. An increasing number of studies have revealed various aspects of these cryptomarkets; however, whether drugs play a major role for competing cryptomarkets to be the market leader, has not been addressed.

Weekly sales and the number of listings for the major products on 3 leading cryptomarkets (Silk Road 2, Agora, and Evolution) were examined using Granger causality tests and interrupted time series analysis.

Not only drugs trading on cryptomarkets played a pivotal role in the growth of each cryptomarket, but also a higher increase in drug supply than in competing marketplaces is crucial to become market leaders. The relative supply of drugs plays a larger role when leading marketplaces disappear.

Law enforcement agencies should focus on monitoring marketplaces with a larger increase in drug supplies than on competing marketplaces.