“Alternative Equilibria in Shallow Lakes”, M. Scheffer, S. H. Hosper, M-L. Meijer, B. Moss, E. Jeppesen1993-08 (; backlinks)⁠:

The turbidity of lakes is generally considered to be a smooth function of their nutrient status. However, recent results suggest that over a range of nutrient concentrations, shallow lakes can have two alternative equilibria: a clear state dominated by aquatic vegetation, and a turbid state characterized by high algal biomass.

This bi-stability has important implications for the possibilities of restoring eutrophied shallow lakes. Nutrient reduction alone may have little impact on water clarity, but an ecosystem disturbance like food-web manipulation can bring the lake back to a stable clear state.

We discuss the reasons why alternative equilibria are theoretically expected in shallow lakes, review evidence from the field and evaluate recent applications of this insight in lake management.

Figure 1: Main feedback loops thought to be responsible for the existence of alternative equilibria in shallow lake ecosystems. The qualitative effect of each route in the diagram can be determined by multiplying the signs along the way. In this way it can be seen that both the vegetated and the turbid state are self-reinforcing. The qualitative effect of management measures discussed in this review can be checked in the same way if a ‘manager’ box with positive or negative arrows pointing to either of the shaded parts of the system is added.