“‘AI Economics’ Tag”,2021-01-19 (DALL·E, tech economics, experience curves, robotics, tech)⁠:

Bibliography for tag ai/scaling/economics, most recent first: 5 related tags, 140 annotations, & 59 links (parent).

• See Also
• Gwern
  • “Hardware Hedging Against Scaling Regime Shifts”, Gwern2024
  • “Laws of Tech: Commoditize Your Complement”, Gwern2018
  • “The Hyperbolic Time Chamber & Brain Emulation”, Gwern2012
  • “Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs”, Gwern2016
  • “Slowing Moore’s Law: How It Could Happen”, Gwern2012
• Links
  • “[Amazon to Invest Another $4 Billion in Anthropic; Anthropic to Use Trainium Chips]”, Anthropic2024
  • “Letter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024—#73 § Culture of Science in China & AI Arms Races”, Hsu2024
  • “Business Spending on AI Surged 500% This Year to $13.8 Billion”
  • “Long Context RAG Performance of Large Language Models”, Leng et al 2024
  • “Alphabet Q3 Earnings Call: CEO Sundar Pichai’s Remarks”
  • “Model Equality Testing: Which Model Is This API Serving?”, Gao et al 2024
  • “Memorandum on Advancing the United States’ Leadership in Artificial Intelligence”, Biden2024
  • “‘King of the Geeks’: How Alex Gerko Built a British Trading Titan: XTX Markets Conquered Foreign Exchange Trading and Made Its Russian-Born Founder a Multibillion-Pound Fortune”, Asgari2024
  • “A Single Cloud Compromise Can Feed an Army of AI Sex Bots”, Krebs2024
  • “Constellation Energy to Restart Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant & Sell All Power to Microsoft for Datacenter”
  • “Nvidia’s AI Chips Are Cheaper to Rent in China Than US: Supply of Processors Helps Chinese Start-Ups Advance Artificial Intelligence Technology despite Washington’s Restrictions”, McMorrow & Olcott2024
  • “OpenAI Co-Founder Sutskever’s New Safety-Focused AI Startup SSI Raises $1 Billion”, Cai et al 2024
  • “How to Lose Money on the World’s Most Popular Investment Theme: Pity the Investors in the Three Artificial-Intelligence-Themed ETFs That Managed to Lose Money This Year”, Mackintosh2024
  • “Is Xi Jinping an AI Doomer? China’s Elite Is Split over Artificial Intelligence”, Economist2024
  • “AI-Powered Coding Pulls in Almost $1bn of Funding to Claim ‘Killer App’ Status”, Murgia2024
  • “Chips or Not, Chinese AI Pushes Ahead: A Host of Chinese AI Startups Are Attempting to Write More Efficient Code for Large Language Models”, Kao & Huang2024
  • “Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030?”, Sevilla et al 2024
  • “An Update to Adept [Amazon Acquihire]”, Adept2024
  • “Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Being an Underdog, AI Safety, and Economic Inequality”, Perrigo2024
  • “Development Cost of ARC GPT-4o Prototype”, Greenblatt2024
  • “OpenAI’s Colin Jarvis Predicts “Exponential” Advancements in Large Language Model Capabilities during AI Summit London Keynote”, Wodecki2024
  • “Apple to ‘Pay’ OpenAI for ChatGPT Through Distribution, Not Cash”, Gurman2024
  • “New AI Battle Adopts Old Price War Strategy As Chinese Tech Giants Keep Start-Ups at Bay behind the Great Firewall”, Jiang & Le2024
  • “China’s Latest Answer to OpenAI Is ‘Chat Xi PT’: Internet Regulator Uses Chinese Leader’s Political Philosophy to Help Answer Questions Posed to Latest Large Language Model”, McMorrow2024
  • “Meet Facebook’s AI Lobbying Army: With 30 Lobbyists & 7 Agencies, the Company Is Primed to Push Its Agenda on Washington”, Hashim2024
  • “Where Does China Stand In the Current AI Wave? China’s Top Policy Experts Discuss the US-China Gap, Open vs. Closed, and Societal Implications”, Welch2024
  • “Paper Tiger? Chinese Science and Home Bias in Citations”, Qiu et al 2024
  • “Sam Altman Invests in Energy Startup Focused on AI Data Centers: Investment by OpenAI CEO Highlights Artificial Intelligence’s Electricity Appetite”, Ramkumar2024
  • “Now Hiring: Sophisticated (but Part-Time) Chatbot Tutors: The Human Work of Teaching A.I. Is Getting a Lot More Complex As the Technology Improves”, Lu2024
  • “How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for AI: OpenAI, Google and Meta Ignored Corporate Policies, Altered Their Own Rules and Discussed Skirting Copyright Law As They Sought Online Information to Train Their Newest Artificial Intelligence Systems”, Metz et al 2024
  • “Inside Big Tech’s Underground Race to Buy AI Training Data”, Paul & Tong2024
  • “A Peter Thiel-Backed AI Startup, Cognition Labs, Seeks $2 Billion Valuation: Funding round Could Increase Startup’s Valuation Nearly Sixfold in a Matter of Weeks, Reflecting AI Frenzy”, Jin2024
  • “Microsoft, OpenAI Plan $100 Billion Data-Center Project, Media Report Says”, Reuters2024
  • “Stability AI Announcement”, Stability2024
  • “Anthropic Is Lining up a New Slate of Investors, but the AI Startup Has Ruled out Saudi Arabia”, Rooney2024
  • “The NSA Warns That US Adversaries Free to Mine Private Data May Have an AI Edge: Gilbert Herrera, Who Leads Research at the National Security Agency, Says Large Language Models Are Incredibly Useful—And a Bit of a Headache—For America’s Intelligence Machine”, Knight2024
  • “China Said to Fall Short of Matching US Advances in AI owing to ‘Many Challenges in Theory and Technologies’”, Jiang2024
  • “Marc Andreessen Eats Washington”, Schleifer2024
  • “The Carbon Emissions of Writing and Illustrating Are Lower for AI Than for Humans”, Tomlinson et al 2024
  • “Beyond Chinchilla-Optimal: Accounting for Inference in Language Model Scaling Laws”, Sardana & Frankle2023
  • “Training Stable Diffusion from Scratch Costs <$160k”, Stephenson & Seguin2023
  • “Generative AI Beyond LLMs: System Implications of Multi-Modal Generation”, Golden et al 2023
  • “ByteDance Is Secretly Using OpenAI’s Tech to Build a Competitor”, Heath2023
  • “Politics and the Future”, Horowitz2023
  • “Real-Time AI & The Future of AI Hardware”, Uberti2023
  • FutureJurvetson @ “2023-11-24”
  • “Microsoft Swallows OpenAI’s Core Team § Compute Is King”, Patel & Nishball2023
  • “Market Concentration Implications of Foundation Models”, Vipra & Korinek2023
  • “OpenAI Seeks New Valuation of Up to $90 Billion in Sale of Existing Shares”, Seetharaman2023
  • “Insights into Stack Overflow’s Traffic: We’re Setting the Record Straight”, Darilek2023
  • “LLMs As Workers in Human-Computational Algorithms? Replicating Crowdsourcing Pipelines With LLMs”, Wu et al 2023
  • “Are Large Language Models a Threat to Digital Public Goods? Evidence from Activity on Stack Overflow”, Rio-Chanona et al 2023
  • “He Spent $140 Billion on AI With Little to Show. Now He Is Trying Again. Billionaire Masayoshi Son Said He Would Make SoftBank ‘the Investment Company for the AI Revolution’, but He Missed out on the Most Recent Frenzy”, Brown2023
  • “The 26-Year-Old CEO Who Became Washington’s AI Whisperer”, Matsakis & Goba2023
  • “Inflection AI Announces $1.3 Billion of Funding Led by Current Investors, Microsoft, and NVIDIA”, AI 2023
  • “Why YouTube Could Give Google an Edge in AI”, Victor2023
  • “Microsoft and OpenAI Forge Awkward Partnership As Tech’s New Power Couple: As the Companies Lead the AI Boom, Their Unconventional Arrangement Sometimes Causes Conflict”, Dotan & Seetharaman2023
  • “Scale AI CEO Says US Risks Losing AI ‘Ammunition’ Edge to China”, Edgerton2023
  • “LTX by Broadridge Launches BondGPT™ Powered by OpenAI GPT-4”, Inc2023
  • “The AI Boom Runs on Chips, but It Can’t Get Enough: ‘It’s like Toilet Paper during the Pandemic.’ Startups, Investors Scrounge for Computational Firepower”, Seetharaman & Dotan2023
  • “China Says Chatbots Must Toe the Party Line: The Communist Party Outlined Draft Rules That Would Set Guardrails on the Rapidly Growing Industry of Services like ChatGPT”, Che2023
  • “AI Is Taking the Jobs of Kenyans Who Write Essays for US College Students: Ghostwriters Say the Meteoric Rise of ChatGPT Has Coincided With a Drop in Income”, Siele2023
  • “In AI Race, Microsoft and Google Choose Speed Over Caution: Technology Companies Were Once Leery of What Some Artificial Intelligence Could Do. Now the Priority Is Winning Control of the Industry’s next Big Thing”, Grant & Weise2023
  • “China’s Answer to ChatGPT? Baidu Shares Tumble As Ernie Bot Disappoints”, Baptista & Ye2023
  • “Salesforce Announces Einstein GPT, the World’s First Generative AI for CRM”, Salesforce2023
  • “China Tells Big Tech Companies Not to Offer ChatGPT Services: State Media Outlet Blasts Chatbot As Spreading US Government ‘Misinformation’”, Zhou2023
  • davidtayar5 @ “2023-02-10”
  • “New Bing, and an Interview With Kevin Scott and Sam Altman About the Microsoft-OpenAI Partnership”, Thompson2023
  • “Microsoft Thinks AI Can Beat Google at Search—CEO Satya Nadella Explains Why: AI Is Coming for Your Browser, Your Social Media, and Your Operating System, Too”, Patel2023
  • “OpenAI’s Sam Altman Talks ChatGPT And How Artificial General Intelligence Can ‘Break Capitalism’”, Konrad & Cai2023
  • “How ChatGPT Kicked Off an AI Arms Race: Even inside the Company, the Chatbot’s Popularity Has Come As Something of a Shock”, Roose2023
  • “Google Is Asking Employees to Test Potential ChatGPT Competitors, including a Chatbot Called ‘Apprentice Bard’”, Elias2023
  • “Anthropic, an AI Start-Up, Is Said to Be Close to Adding $300 Million: Anthropic Specializes in Generative Artificial Intelligence, a Hot Investment in Silicon Valley. The New Funding Could Value the Company at Roughly $5 Billion”, Griffith & Metz2023
  • “The inside Story of ChatGPT: How OpenAI Founder Sam Altman Built the World’s Hottest Technology With Billions from Microsoft”, Kahn2023
  • “Microsoft and OpenAI Extend Partnership”, Microsoft2023
  • “General Availability of Azure OpenAI Service Expands Access to Large, Advanced AI Models With Added Enterprise Benefits”, Boyd2023
  • “Microsoft Bets Big on the Creator of ChatGPT in Race to Dominate AI: As a New Chatbot Wows the World With Its Conversational Talents, a Resurgent Tech Giant Is Poised to Reap the Benefits While Doubling down on a Relationship With the Start-Up OpenAI”, Metz & Weise2023
  • “Inside the Structure of OpenAI’s Looming New Investment from Microsoft and VCs”, Mathews & Kahn2023
  • “Microsoft + OpenAI: Inside Tech’s Hottest Romance. As Microsoft and OpenAI Finalize a Blockbuster Financing Round, a Big Question Looms: Can Both Sides Get What They Want—And Rocket ahead of Rivals like Google—Without Things Getting Too Complicated?”, Woo et al 2023
  • “Microsoft Is Weighing $10 Billion Investment in OpenAI, Sources Say”, Mathews & Kahn2023
  • “Microsoft Eyes $10 Billion Bet on ChatGPT”, Hoffman & Albergotti2023
  • “A New Chat Bot Is a ‘Code Red’ for Google’s Search Business: A New Wave of Chat Bots like ChatGPT Use Artificial Intelligence That Could Reinvent or Even Replace the Traditional Internet Search Engine”, Grant & Metz2022
  • “Here’s What I Saw at an AI Hackathon: AI Gossip, Celebrity Sightings, Tech Trends—And Some Great Projects”, Shipper2022
  • “6 New Theories About AI: Software With Superpowers § GPT-4”, Armstrong2022
  • “TSMC Racing to 1nm, Investing $32 Billion for Fab: Report”, Shilov2022
  • “OpenAI, Valued at Nearly $20 Billion, in Advanced Talks With Microsoft For More Funding”, Holmes et al 2022
  • “Programming Possibility: Kevin Scott on AI’s Impact on Cognitive Work”, Hoffman & Scott2022
  • “Measuring the Carbon Intensity of AI in Cloud Instances”, Dodge et al 2022
  • “Ethan Caballero on Private Scaling Progress”, Caballero & Trazzi2022
  • “Varuna: Scalable, Low-Cost Training of Massive Deep Learning Models”, Athlur et al 2021
  • “Sustainable AI: Environmental Implications, Challenges and Opportunities”, Wu et al 2021
  • “On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models”, Bommasani et al 2021
  • “First-Generation Inference Accelerator Deployment at Facebook”, Anderson et al 2021
  • “Ezra Klein Interviews Sam Altman”, Klein & Altman2021
  • “Anthropic Raises $124 Million to Build More Reliable, General AI Systems”, Anthropic2021
  • “Research Community Dynamics behind Popular AI Benchmarks”, Martínez-Plumed et al 2021
  • “Cooperative AI Foundation (CAIF)”, CAIF 2021
  • “Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training”, Patterson et al 2021
  • “ChinAI #137: Year 3 of ChinAI: Reflections on the Newsworthiness of Machine Translation”, Ding2021
  • “GPT-3 Powers the Next Generation of Apps: Over 300 Applications Are Delivering GPT-3–powered Search, Conversation, Text Completion, and Other Advanced AI Features through Our API”, OpenAI 2021
  • “Artificial Intelligence Index Report2021 § Chapter 2: Technical Performance”, Zhang et al 2021 (page 41)
  • “Organizational Update from OpenAI”, OpenAI 2020
  • “AI and Efficiency: We’re Releasing an Analysis Showing That Since 2012 the Amount of Compute Needed to Train a Neural Net to the Same Performance on ImageNet Classification Has Been Decreasing by a Factor of 2 Every 16 Months”, Hernandez & Brown2020
  • “Thoughts on OpenAI [Redacted]”, Scott & Nadella2019b
  • “AI and Compute”, Amodei et al 2018
  • “OpenAI and Elon Musk § Tesla Merger Proposal”, Karpathy2018
  • “TikTok Owner ByteDance Quietly Launched 4 Generative AI Apps Powered By OpenAI’s GPT”, Baker-White2014
  • “Funding Safe AGI”, Legg2009
  • “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”, Hanson2009
  • “Carl Shulman on the Economy and National Security After AGI”
  • “How to Build a Startup Monopoly With GPT-3 (20 Techniques)”
  • “Microsoft and OpenAI Partner to Propose Digital Transformation of Export Controls”
  • “Cohere”
  • “A Call to Build Models Like We Build Open-Source Software”
  • “Trading Off Compute in Training and Inference”
  • “Scale AI Secures $1B Funding at $14B Valuation As Its CEO Predicts Big Revenue Growth and Profitability by Year-End [On Very High Quality Data]”
  • “Let’s Reproduce GPT-2 (1.6B): One 8×H100 Node, 24 Hours, $672”
  • “NFDG [VC Firm]”, Friedman & Grossman2024
  • “Scale: The Data Platform for AI; High Quality Training and Validation Data for AI Applications”, AI 2024
  • “Stability AI CEO Resigns Because You Can’t Beat Centralized AI With More Centralized AI”
  • “Introducing Adept”
  • “AMA Conjecture, A New Alignment Startup”
  • “Starting a Business Around GPT-3 Is a Bad Idea”
  • “Anthropic Raises $124 Million to Build More Reliable, General AI Systems”
  • “General Purpose Technologies and the Rise & Fall of Great Powers”, Ding2024
  • “How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fab”
  • “Carl Shulman #2: AI Takeover, Bio & Cyber Attacks, Detecting Deception, & Humanity’s Far Future”
  • “The Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy: To Compete With China, the United States Must Walk a Tightrope in the Gulf”
  • “Compute Funds and Pre-Trained Models”
  • “Counting AGIs”
  • “The Colliding Exponentials of AI”
  • “AGI Will Drastically Increase Economies of Scale”
  • “We Are Conjecture, A New Alignment Research Startup”
  • “Liability Regimes for AI”
  • “FTC Is Investigating ChatGPT Maker”
  • “US Clears Way for Antitrust Inquiries of Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI”
  • “Energy Companies Turn to Robots to Install Solar Panels”
  • “ChatGPT’s Weekly Users Have Doubled in Less Than a Year: Now 200 Million People Use the AI Chatbot Each Week”, Roth2024
  • “Bill Gates Reveals Superhuman AI Prediction”
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