“Darknet Market Mortality Risks”, Gwern2013-10-30 (Bitcoin, R, DNMs, economics, forecasting, survival analysis; backlinks)⁠:

Survival analysis of lifespans, deaths, and predictive factors of Tor-Bitcoin darknet markets

I compile a dataset of 87 public English-language darknet markets (DNMs) 2011^–₅2016 in the vein of the famous Silk Road 1, recording their openings/closing and relevant characteristics. A survival analysis indicates the markets follow a Type TODO lifespan, with a median life of TODO months. Risk factors include TODO. With the best model, I generate estimates for the currently-operating markets.

• Data
  • Table
• Analysis
• Predictions
• See Also
• Appendix
  • Return & Volatility
• External Links

Backlinks: