“Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed § NBA Screening Scenario”, Gwern2018-09-18 (, , , , , , ; similar)⁠:

Decision analysis of whether cloning the most elite Special Forces dogs is a profitable improvement over standard selection procedures. Unless training is extremely cheap or heritability is extremely low, dog cloning is hypothetically profitable.

Analogous to the dog cloning scenario, I consider the case of selecting for extremes on PGSes, motivated by a scenario of scouting tall men for the NBA.

Setting up the NBA selection problem as a liability threshold model with current height PGSes as a noisy predictor, height selection can be modeled as selecting for extremes on a PGS which is regressed back to the mean to yield expected adult height, and probability of being tall enough to consider a NBA career.

Filling in reasonable values, nontrivial numbers of tall people can be found by genomic screening with a current PGS, and as PGSes approach their predictive upper bound (derived from whole-genome-based heritability estimates of height), selection is capable of selecting almost all tall people by taking the top PGS percentile.