“2012 Election Predictions”, 2012-11-05 (; backlinks):
Compiling academic and media forecaster’s 2012 American Presidential election predictions and statistically judging correctness; Nate Silver was not the best.
I statistically analyzed in R hundreds of predictions compiled for ~10 forecasters of the 201212ya American Presidential election, and ranking them by Brier, RMSE, & log scores.
The best overall performance seems to be by Drew Linzer and Wang & Holbrook, while Nate Silver appears as somewhat overrated and the famous Intrade prediction market turned in a disappointing overall performance.