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Waenceslaus
8,9231,45024
Methuselah

Dec 08, 2018#61

heatwave116 wrote:
andymyewatson949 wrote: Jeanne Calment may have been 58 years old as she may have died in 1934. Possibly it was Jeanne's daughter Yvonne who died in 1997, and Yvonne was 99, NOT 122.

https://www.leafscience.org/valery-novo ... ty-record/
Bjorn, this is getting stupid now. It’s not enough to repeat the same nonsense conspiracy theory over and over again, oh no, you evade a ban to get your point across. That’s NOT going to help your case in the slightest.
I don't think it's a sockpuppet account of Bjorn.

heatwave116
3,3653093
Jeanne Calment

Dec 08, 2018#62

Waenceslaus wrote:
heatwave116 wrote:
andymyewatson949 wrote: Jeanne Calment may have been 58 years old as she may have died in 1934. Possibly it was Jeanne's daughter Yvonne who died in 1997, and Yvonne was 99, NOT 122.

https://www.leafscience.org/valery-novo ... ty-record/
Bjorn, this is getting stupid now. It’s not enough to repeat the same nonsense conspiracy theory over and over again, oh no, you evade a ban to get your point across. That’s NOT going to help your case in the slightest.
I don't think it's a sockpuppet account of Bjorn.
Even if it isn’t, it doesn’t half sound like him.
THE LAST SURVIVOR FROM THE 1800'S WAS:

EMMA MORANO, 29 NOVEMBER 1899 – 15 APRIL 2017, AGED 117 YEARS, 137 DAYS, ITALY
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Ollie
13K8244
Great Methuselah

Dec 08, 2018#63

Futurist wrote:
Ollie wrote:
Björn He Bergman wrote: Jeanne Calment may have been 58 years old as she may have died in 1934. Possibly it was Jeanne's daughter Yvonne who died in 1997, and Yvonne was 99, NOT 122.

https://www.leafscience.org/valery-novo ... ty-record/
Hi Bjorn, do you think you could post this another 147 times? I'm just worried some people might not see it.

Maybe call up NASA and see if they can have it painted on the moon.
Why limit oneself to the Moon when one can also paint it on Mars? ;)
I fear you may have missed the joke
GRG Administrative Assistant for Database Administration (since 27 February 2016)
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Futurist
17K84
Endless Methuselah

Dec 08, 2018#64

Ollie wrote:
Futurist wrote:
Ollie wrote:
Björn He Bergman wrote: Jeanne Calment may have been 58 years old as she may have died in 1934. Possibly it was Jeanne's daughter Yvonne who died in 1997, and Yvonne was 99, NOT 122.

https://www.leafscience.org/valery-novo ... ty-record/
Hi Bjorn, do you think you could post this another 147 times? I'm just worried some people might not see it.

Maybe call up NASA and see if they can have it painted on the moon.
Why limit oneself to the Moon when one can also paint it on Mars? ;)
I fear you may have missed the joke
No; I get the joke. It's that Bjorn talks way too much about this.

Nayrolf
2552032
Supercentenarian

Dec 09, 2018#65

Futurist wrote:
Ollie wrote:
Futurist wrote:
Ollie wrote:
Björn He Bergman wrote: Jeanne Calment may have been 58 years old as she may have died in 1934. Possibly it was Jeanne's daughter Yvonne who died in 1997, and Yvonne was 99, NOT 122.

https://www.leafscience.org/valery-novo ... ty-record/
Hi Bjorn, do you think you could post this another 147 times? I'm just worried some people might not see it.

Maybe call up NASA and see if they can have it painted on the moon.
Why limit oneself to the Moon when one can also paint it on Mars? ;)
I fear you may have missed the joke
No; I get the joke. It's that Bjorn talks way too much about this.
What Ollie meant is that Mars is way farther than the Moon so it would be pretty much impossible to see a "painting" on it, whereas the point is to make the message as loud and visible as possible :)

ryoung122
17K1,5059
Endless Methuselah

Dec 10, 2018#66

andymyewatson949 wrote: Jeanne Calment may have been 58 years old as she may have died in 1934. Possibly it was Jeanne's daughter Yvonne who died in 1997, and Yvonne was 99, NOT 122.

https://www.leafscience.org/valery-novo ... ty-record/
Did you come here just to spam our group with disinformation? Not cool at all.
Senior Consultant for Gerontology, Guinness World Records (Nov 23 2005-)
Senior Claims Researcher, Gerontology Research Group (June 1999-2012, 2014).
Senior Database Administrator, Gerontology Research Group (Dec 2012-)
Director, GRG Supercentenarian Research and Database Division (Feb 12 2015-)
Founder, World's Oldest People Group (June 2002-)
Co-Founder, GRG Supercentenarian Forum (2011-)
Senior Administrator and Advisor, 110 Club (2007-)
Chief Bureaucrat, Gerontology Wiki (August 2015-)
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aubrey
15931
Supercentenarian

Dec 10, 2018#67

Two questions for those who know:
1) Is there a DNA sample from the person who died in 1997?
2) Does Jeanne's husband have any living closeish relatives (great-nieces etc)?

If yes and yes, the issue can be definitively answered in half no time: if DNA from the relative demonstrates close kinship to the person who died in 1997, that person was Yvonne, otherwise it was indeed Jeanne.

hydepark
6381,27725
Top Ten

Dec 10, 2018#68

aubrey wrote: Two questions for those who know:
1) Is there a DNA sample from the person who died in 1997?
2) Does Jeanne's husband have any living closeish relatives (great-nieces etc)?

If yes and yes, the issue can be definitively answered in half no time: if DNA from the relative demonstrates close kinship to the person who died in 1997, that person was Yvonne, otherwise it was indeed Jeanne.
Even so, Calment and her husband are relatives. Doesn't that matter?

aubrey
15931
Supercentenarian

Dec 10, 2018#69

How close relatives were they? In essentially any circumstance the possible amounts of commonality of DNA should be easily different enough in the two cases.

ryoung122
17K1,5059
Endless Methuselah

Dec 10, 2018#70

aubrey wrote: Two questions for those who know:
1) Is there a DNA sample from the person who died in 1997?
2) Does Jeanne's husband have any living closeish relatives (great-nieces etc)?

If yes and yes, the issue can be definitively answered in half no time: if DNA from the relative demonstrates close kinship to the person who died in 1997, that person was Yvonne, otherwise it was indeed Jeanne.
Greetings,

Much of what has been said in the Dec 4 piece is, to put it kindly, a "devil's advocate" conspiracy theory that is full of spin and misinformation. For a few examples:

1. Jeanne Calment was NOT the first French supercentenarian, so the assertion that it was so unusual for the very first person in France to reach age 122 is incorrect
2. Calment's case was NOT randomly selected at the start of the IDL. The IDL really wasn't formed until circa 2002-2003, well after Jeanne Calment had passed away. Her case was used as a starting point because the government of France did not bother to track deaths at age 110+ until 1987. Thus, Calment being the first French case in the IDL data was NOT random
3. Sending a single blurred photo around to ask uninformed people to guesstimate the age of the person in the photo is a complete study fail. Only one photo was used. What about using multiple photos? And control photos weren't used, either. And indeed, the general public generally has no idea what a supercentenarian might look like, or even the notion that they exist rarely crosses the mind of the general public. So those guesses, which seemed designed to get the result being looked for by choosing a photo showing Calment in a flattering light (blurred lines makes it harder to see wrinkles), mean virtually nothing
4. The allegation of motive remains unconvincing. Jeanne Calment's father died in 1931 so wouldn't the inheritance have already gone to Jeanne, no need to ID switch? For the person who died in 1934, supposed to be Yvonne, if Jeanne passed away and then Yvonne pretended to be Jeanne...that makes no sense as Jeanne's husband was still living and would have known, and he would have received the inheritance, making the ID switch very, very unlikely.
5. Indeed, Jeanne Calment lived in the same small city her entire life and was known to the community. Had she switched ID's, someone would have known.
6. So far, the biggest accusation of ID switching comes from an "insurance secrets" book...with unsourced allegations on a single page amounting to nothing more than a cautionary anecdote to those who issue and monitor life insurance policies to be ware of potential fraud.
7. Calment's grandson didn't die until 1963 and she didn't sign her "reverse mortgage" agreement until 1965. It stretches credibility to suggest that she managed to ID-switch 30+ years earlier in order to obtain a longer retirement pension. Do people think that someone would "plan" to live to "122" on paper? No. And let's not forget that 1965-1898=67 and 67+32=99 so even if 23 years younger, she still would have been old enough for a pension, and even age 99 is unlikely to be "conspired" to reach. Using Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is that no one, not even Jeanne, could have expected her to still be living in 1997.
8. The actual documentary evidence, 27+ documents never more than 12 years apart, leave very little room for conspiracy-theory construction. The number of people that would have to "go along with it" to make it work for not much benefit just doesn't seem likely. See here for details: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/books/odense/6/09.htm
9. Most ID-fraud people "disappear" from society for many years, and often their family is unknown. There is a man in Costa Rica that currently claims to be "118" but there is a 99-year-gap in the records, he has not admitted to any family history, he started receiving a pension at "99". A claim like that has many hallmarks of ID switching: not enough information to locate the person in a context before the pension was applied for.
10. Many people whose age has turned out to be questionable at best have avoided the spotlight. The Lucy Hannah case is one such example, whereby there were NO media reports of her in her "supercentenarian" or "centenarian" years, no obituary, no public photo, etc. That's not the case with Jeanne Calment, who was open to investigators/researchers from the time that they asked her. She was probably interviewed more than any other supercentenarian. I find it hard to believe that someone trying to pull off an ID switch would have been that open.
11. There is the assertion that Calment "burned all her papers"--but consider the situation: her family line had gone extinct; she was without heir. You know who else burned their papers at their death, on their orders? US President George Washington.
12. I do not know if Jeanne Calment was DNA-tested but I believe that her body was buried in a traditional Catholic burial. From what I understand, her body was buried, not cremated:

I suppose some researchers could apply to obtain post-mortem DNA samples for a study, if necessary. I don't see the need that some feel to overly push rumors and conspiracies to achieve this goal.

The initial push to "re-investigate" the Calment case was based on a "green" misunderstanding that the IDL France data began as a totally random sample and just happened to pull Calment first...and what would be the odds of the very first pick to, oh, reach the all-time record? ASTOUNDING!!!

But, on closer inspection, we come to realize that Jeanne Calment's case is more akin to reporters flocking to a volcano after it has started putting on an eruptive show (such as Mount Kilauea in Hawaii). The IDL was not formed until a few years after Jeanne Calment had passed away, and the government of France had begun to track supercentenarians in 1987 due to the publicity surrounding Jeanne Calment being 112 in Arles and remembering Vincent Van Gogh. In short, the Jeanne Calment case was NOT randomly selected but intentionally selected...first, as someone who "remembered" Van Gogh; later, as a world's oldest person. That she pushed on to set the record as the oldest validated person ever could be said to be somewhat unusual, but we have to consider a few things also:

--the very first nation to track the entire population of a society was Sweden, which began in 1749. Thus by 1860, Sweden had validated data on their oldest persons.
--however, many nations did not get to the point of full coverage until much later. With relatively little data coverage and a low life expectancy it is not a surprise that the records were relatively low (age 110 was first undisputably reached in 1898, by a Dutchman). However, the second half of the 19th century saw great progress made in Europe, North America, and Japan in improving systems of recordkeeping, as well as economic, technological, health, etc. improvements. Calment's case came relatively near the start of a burst/explosion of improvements in the supercentenarian records, but is not that unusual. Most extreme value theorists have estimated the odds of the Calment case happening anywhere within the time frame at 1 in 7. Not so extreme because the odds are calculated against the backdrop of the total documented population, not just within one small town.

DNA testing could help further establish ID. I would consider Calment's case very very tight as it is, the odds of being able to pull off an ID switch seem higher (thus less likely to be true) when more facts are known. Let's not also forget that this isn't the only case that exists. Some persons 115+ already have had DNA collected. It would be a good idea to test as many validated persons 115+ as practical.

13. P.S. It's also untrue that the human nose stops growing once someone reaches adulthood. In fact, scientific studies show that the human nose, being cartilaginous, continues to grow slowly throughout people's lifetimes. Thus, trying to measure noses for photo comparisons over time is not correct.
Senior Consultant for Gerontology, Guinness World Records (Nov 23 2005-)
Senior Claims Researcher, Gerontology Research Group (June 1999-2012, 2014).
Senior Database Administrator, Gerontology Research Group (Dec 2012-)
Director, GRG Supercentenarian Research and Database Division (Feb 12 2015-)
Founder, World's Oldest People Group (June 2002-)
Co-Founder, GRG Supercentenarian Forum (2011-)
Senior Administrator and Advisor, 110 Club (2007-)
Chief Bureaucrat, Gerontology Wiki (August 2015-)
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cbman
1571661
Supercentenarian

Dec 11, 2018#71

This thread on Reddit shows a graph of the ages of every WOP since Betsy Baker.



Of course, when people look at this, their first question is "who's the outlier?" which has led to them reading about the recent investigation and accepting it as fact.

The hypothesis of Jeanne being younger than 122 is at risk of becoming a widespread belief. Shouldn't something be done to address this?

ryoung122
17K1,5059
Endless Methuselah

Dec 11, 2018#72

cbman wrote: This thread on Reddit shows a graph of the ages of every WOP since Betsy Baker.



Of course, when people look at this, their first question is "who's the outlier?" which has led to them reading about the recent investigation and accepting it as fact.

The hypothesis of Jeanne being younger than 122 is at risk of becoming a widespread belief. Shouldn't something be done to address this?
It looks to me like there's an intentional campaign to push this "Calment-doubt". That actually is yet another reason NOT to believe the "ID switching" hypothesis. That's how politics operates, not science.

Science, firstly, studies situations using the scientific method and doesn't come to pre-determined outcomes BEFORE the study. To begin with the outcome desired is a teleological fallacy. Studies need room to confirm or deny the conclusion. Science uses peer-reviewed findings published in scientific journals to define what the scientific position is...and science generally accords previous research in the area respect.

Nothing of that sort has been done here. It's all conspiracy hypothesis spread across social media and no substance.

Dec 11, 2018#73

cbman wrote: This thread on Reddit shows a graph of the ages of every WOP since Betsy Baker.



Of course, when people look at this, their first question is "who's the outlier?" which has led to them reading about the recent investigation and accepting it as fact.

The hypothesis of Jeanne being younger than 122 is at risk of becoming a widespread belief. Shouldn't something be done to address this?
Response #2: graphs such as this are misleading because they don't cover the base years (0-105). It only covers the top years, which makes the differences between Calment and Knauss and the rest of the field appear to be more prominent than they actually are.

Moreover, studies of weather records OFTEN show patterns like this (especially for record lows).

In November, the record low for Mount Washington, New Hampshire for November 22 was broken by a whopping 15 degrees:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/ ... story.html
Senior Consultant for Gerontology, Guinness World Records (Nov 23 2005-)
Senior Claims Researcher, Gerontology Research Group (June 1999-2012, 2014).
Senior Database Administrator, Gerontology Research Group (Dec 2012-)
Director, GRG Supercentenarian Research and Database Division (Feb 12 2015-)
Founder, World's Oldest People Group (June 2002-)
Co-Founder, GRG Supercentenarian Forum (2011-)
Senior Administrator and Advisor, 110 Club (2007-)
Chief Bureaucrat, Gerontology Wiki (August 2015-)
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SophieLockhart
6435
Youngster

Dec 11, 2018#74

ryoung122 wrote:Moreover, studies of weather records OFTEN show patterns like this (especially for record lows).

In November, the record low for Mount Washington, New Hampshire for November 22 was broken by a whopping 15 degrees:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/ ... story.html
It's an unequal comparison because weather records are not era-dependant, unlike the number of centenarians which is much bigger than in the past. So to have a 122 year old from such a low base is indeed extremely surprising.

Waenceslaus
8,9231,45024
Methuselah

Dec 11, 2018#75

SophieLockhart wrote:
ryoung122 wrote:Moreover, studies of weather records OFTEN show patterns like this (especially for record lows).

In November, the record low for Mount Washington, New Hampshire for November 22 was broken by a whopping 15 degrees:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/ ... story.html
It's an unequal comparison because weather records are not era-dependant, unlike the number of centenarians which is much bigger than in the past. So to have a 122 year old from such a low base is indeed extremely surprising.
Of course the weather records may change depending on an era!

We had a few ice ages in prehistory.

Moreover, following the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Loki there was a small ice age in the XVIIth century. Then, the Baltic Sea would become frozen solid in the winters, and one could travel on foot across it between Poland and Sweden.
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