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Startup Ideas (gwern.net)
223 points by luu 4 months ago | hide | past | favorite | 107 comments



I could barely keep reading after "Pet Lemon Market". The way it talks about disease and emotional bonds is cruel beyond measure.

And then..

> CutFit: a cutting-edge new fitness fad, exploiting the fact that repairing biological tissue after injury is energetically & metabolically expensive, requiring ~20kj/g5. Enough tissue damage could represent a substantial caloric sink

> GANs for photorealistic-but-legal child porn

I don't know if this is supposed to be funny, but it's not


> GANs for photorealistic-but-legal child porn

Not to mention that this still isn't legal, at least in the USA.

That said, the top line above the table of contents does say that many of these are supposed to be satirical.

> Startup Ideas: Proposals for new technologies, businesses, startups, *satirical* or serious.

I suspect a lot of people may be getting caught up on items that are genuinely supposed to be satire. Whether its good satire or not, reasonable minds can disagree. But I find it unlikely that three you picked out weren't intended as satire. However, I'd also be surprised if a few unreasonable people didn't seriously consider building a business around these.


There is a pretty famous SCOTUS case on this, Ashcroft v Free Speech Coalition. Given the ruling I don't think it's illegal, although you'd definitely have legal challenges.


Author claims,

> satirical or serious.

And seem to have put lot of effort in maintaining that ambiguity.

Self plug:

If you'd like to see less ambiguous site for startup ideas, I've been running a validation platform for over 2 years[1] where 'Problems' are the first class citizen, Startup ideas, MVPs which address that problem goes into comments.

[1] https://needgap.com


Nice webapp! One small improvement that would make it more usable for me would be not to limit titles to a single line on the homepage - it would be a more smooth experience if I could read the full title before clicking it. Thank you.


Thank you for your feedback, Title ellipsizing on phone is a real issue which I should have addressed earlier; I will be working on it soon.


Edit:

I should add that the reason the title text is currently overwrapping to ellipsis on phone screen instead of breaking words into new line is because the meta tags aren't relative to the title. HN seems to be using tables to avoid this issue, I might do the same or use flexbox instead.


Sounds good! Thanks for the response (I found using flex box really appropriate in similar situations).


I think most of these companies would be right at home in an episode of Silicon Valley


#9981: Platform that enables a conversation to be had between entities made up of multiple people suggesting and voting for the most interesting, thought-provoking and engaging responses. The resulting conversations may be of a higher quality than ones between single individuals.

#9986: Movie recommendation engine based on subtitle analysis. Comparing mean word and sentence length, words-per-hour mean, dialogue density variation over time, lexical complexity and vocabulary overlap will uncover similarities in the fabric of tone, pacing and subject matter.

#9989: A website where people can define and popularize musical genres by listing a few exemplar songs, describing their perceived shared qualities and linking to samples. Seed songs can be similar in their entirety or just part of duration. Others can then suggest more that fit.

#9990: A random restaurant, where a computer creates random bite-sized combinations from a big list of ingredients. Each time, this will result in a unique new interplay of flavor and texture. Personal scoring will uncover correlations of what goes together or performs comparably


9990: In Google offices, you can find "Machine Learning optimized cookies". At least, you could pre-COVID, dunno now. There's even a published paper on it: https://research.google/pubs/pub46507/



I used to work with the lead author of that paper. He's one of the smartest devs I know and has a great sense of humor. I'm not surprised that he would publish something like this or that he ended up at Google.


Unreal


9989 will never work because people won't do it in good faith, they'll do it in whatever way they believe will make their music or their friend's music more popular. Go check out the mess that tags are on soundcloud.


> #9981: Platform that enables a conversation to be had between entities made up of multiple people suggesting and voting for the most interesting, thought-provoking and engaging responses. The resulting conversations may be of a higher quality than ones between single individuals.

Are you looking for something like https://www.kialo.com/?


9990 - Chef Watson had this a decade ago, there's also been few restaurants offering dishes the AI came up with.


Isn't #9981 basically what HN is?


No, I think the idea is to have two separate groups. Each group member can make a suggestion for the group's next reply. Only the best-voted suggestion is sent on to the other group.


Let's not give ourselves too much credit :)


Yes, it sounds almost exactly what HN and Reddit is.

I would be interested to hear what OP meant and how it would be different.


9986 is simply genius


>#9981: Platform that enables a conversation to be had between entities made up of multiple people suggesting and voting for the most interesting, thought-provoking and engaging responses. The resulting conversations may be of a higher quality than ones between single individuals.

That's what I am working on with finclout. Looking to expand the team.


Gwern is a treasure trove of good reading.

I think my favorite idea is the Bonsai simulator. Low energy investment, but you end up with something neat over a long period of time. You friends would probably think it's neat when you post an update every year. And, you don't need any new technology, someone could just make this tonight.


I feel like I always learn something new whenever I read Gwern's articles.

I found this idea particularly hilarious for some reason:

ceiling-mounted infrared beam emitters+guidance infrared camera, steered by segmenting CNN: it automatically detects & warms up the bare skin segments of female objects until thermal equilibrium of 37.5°C is reached, ensuring thermal comfort of women without requiring heavy clothing—thereby resolving the Great Office Thermostat Wars once and for all.


Kinda like the rejected pitch off Silicon Valley


"non-medical hearing aids but for people with misophonia"

Wow. That is brilliant. Plus, the startup could plausibly advertise to VCs how they use AI and machine learning to cancel out chewing sounds, and they'd have $30 million in funding by the end of the week.


Couldn't this be built into existing noise-cancelling earbuds?


Hearing aids are already used to treat both misophonia and hyperacusis. So while the idea is sound, it would probably not get funded because it already exists.


Thermostats existed and worked fine and Nest still got funded/acquired. Plus a lot of people have misophonia (or will convince themselves they do) if it's marketed well.


it is 15% of adults, but obviously it should be hearing aid as platform, with anti-misophonia as first killer app.


There's a massive cartel of 5 shadowy, evil mega corporations to overcome in the hearing aid space with lobbying chops and deeply embedded legal fuckery on the level of big pharma.

They use their position to exploit one of the most vulnerable populations on the planet, charging many thousands of usd for devices that cost $5 or less in mass production.

They created a pseudomedicine called audiology and established regional and state level boards to maintain an iron grip on medical device classification, and have ignored decades of activism and campaigns to open the market despite massive bipartisan support and action all the way up to the presidential level.

Innovations in the market are quietly litigated into oblivion, or purchased and incorporated into the existing framework of rent extraction from the elderly and disabled.

Until we see punitive action taken to dismantle the groups behind price gouging and medical device restrictions, the market for hearing devices is off limits.

There are a few exceptions, but the suppression of competition is brutal, ruthless to the extreme.


This is unfortunately quite true. My wife is hard of hearing. Thankfully, the devices are covered by insurance, but that is arguably part of the problem as it just subsidizes extortionary pricing. We're talking near ten grand for something that is technically impressive, but not any more than normal ANC headphones, and they haven't improved much while all other audio processing devices continue getting better. And insurance didn't cover it until a little over a decade ago, leaving her functionally deaf for most of her life when she didn't need to be.

This kind of thing has a serious chilling effect on people, too. I can see it in the way I entered the software industry and decided to become an engineer after leaving the Army. I skyrocketed past her within a few years to the point I'm earning more than double what she does now and she's been doing it for 20 years. I puzzled for years over why she seems to so consistently get ignored and doesn't advocate for herself until I realized the obvious reason. She's been sitting in meetings and having face-to-faces with people for decades in which she couldn't hear what they were saying and she learned to just stay quiet and nod along, so no one has ever noticed her. It's a lifelong habit now leading to self-doubt, low self-esteem, peers thinking you're stuck up or unfriendly or even stupid. None of it had to be that way.


Bose's "hearphones" seem to be trying to make inroads in to that space. What's your view on those?


Reminds me of this video of Paul Graham, where he says that startup ideas like a beautiful woman to a nerd, "if you got me, you wouldn't have a clue what to do with me"! [see 3:00 onwards ish in video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9ITLdmfdLI


> "Pet Lemon Market - Monetizing pet ill health into revenue streams: exploit the temporal inconsistency of people in having high elasticity in pet purchase costs but extreme price insensitivity/ inelasticity in purchasing pet medical care by giving away sick pets (especially bulldogs), & getting vet kickbacks or direct profit-sharing."

This is pretty horrifying, and doesn't even sound like a facetious idea...


These are absolutely satirical. And good satire, at that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal


The conclusion is "[Fictional equivalent of Satan] would approve greatly", so I'd assume it's a joke.

(Also, the scheme would be super impractical to monetize)


While morbid to some, pet crematoriums are potentially great business for 3 reasons:

  * service that humans require in perpetuity
  * luxury status good
  * no one wants to own/operate such a business (few competitors)
https://twitter.com/brentbeshore/status/901908518675947520?l...


Bring back the dumb terminal. Place mobile phone on a docking pad and see a standard PC OS on the screen - open apps, access files or use a browser. When done just grab the phone and go.


IIUC, in 2021, you can dock a PineTab or a PinePhone with a USB-C PD hub that has HDMI, USB, and Ethernet and use any of a number of Linux Desktop operating systems on a larger screen with full size keyboard and mouse.

The PineTab has a backlit keyboard and IIUC the PinePhone has a keyboard & aux battery case that doesn't yet also include the fingerprint sensor or wireless charging. https://www.pine64.org/blog/


This already exists: https://ubuntu-touch.io/


It's mostly dead at this point.

The list of devices includes phones as recent as the Oneplus One. [0]

[0]: https://www.ubports.com/devices/promoted-devices


Take the state of the project as a market fit test of the idea?


Have you tried Samsung Dex?


I've heard some talk about a CO2 Coin before (one where a coin is mined by carbon capture). I'm sure there are all sorts of reasons why it would not work, but it would be the only kind of crypto I'd ever be interested in owning.


A centralized CO2 coin would work. Drop off your CO2 at our depot and we'll deposit coin in your account.

Not sure how you'd decentralize a physical process though.


I have no idea how to do this without opening yourself up to near-trivial cheating either, as the validation of work isn't intrinsically linked to the actual effort like current crypto coin systems rely on.

And if there's a centralized arbiter validating people's capture results, then you've just invented a centralized currency? Why have crypto at all? It sounds like carbon credits (with all it's failings) with extra steps.


Also runs afoul of the cobra effect -- people can burn more stuff to produce CO2, then capture and deliver it to retrieve coin.


> Also runs afoul of the cobra effect

And if it didn’t fall foul of that and if CO2 was over captured then most life on earth would die.


I don't think we have to worry about that any time soon.


> I have no idea how to do this without opening yourself up to near-trivial cheating either, as the validation of work isn't intrinsically linked to the actual effort like current crypto coin systems rely on.

This is known as the oracle problem and is actively being worked on.


It's already decentralized. U can give each other the CO2 capsule as a form of currency.


There’s a book with this at its core - Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson.


I’m reading it right now. A fascinating exploration of how humanity may be able to act in the face of climate change.

It doesn’t try to sugar coat things and I appreciate that.


Considering the absolutely huge CO2/environmental impact of BTC and other proof-of-work cryptos, talking about a CO2-coin for the purpose of CO2 sequestration sounds like quite a joke to me...


But the whole point is that it's not a proof-of-work crypto, or at least not a proof of useless mathematical number spinning. It's based entirely on carbon capture.

There are non-proof-of-work cryptos already out there.


The more bitcoins you mint, the more carbon you can capture! Perpetual money machine!


There was recently a launch on the Ethereum mainnet for a carbon credit DAO called Klima. Might be worth checking out, I’m reading up on it myself.


Gwern Branwen possibly has one of the best blogs/personal sites on the internet period.


The post is the fridge magnet poetry of startups, which at least provides a baseline or waypoint co-ordinate. They aren't startup ideas, it's a list of things nobody wants. Clever, but the general problem of ascertaining desires by speculating about them and then testing them is more interesting than just iterating ideas and seeing if any are funny or inspiring.

I'd speculate the best startup ideas will come from more literary minds with insight into desire, and wonder if we can get better results by looking at how succesful startups in fact did not solve a problem at all, but instead understood a desire and implemented something to manage it. The difference is that desire is understood before it is problematized, where I think as technologists, we all have a tendency to filter experiences through the lens of problematizing, where we index on the things that seem solvable, and ignore the ones that are less concrete, but it's the incremental response to the more nebulous desires that ultimately scale into massive companies.

Snapchat responded to young people's desire for porn. Facebook responded to the desire of harvard students to signal their status. Google originally responded to the FOSS community's desire for indexed technical documentation, and then to the desire to signal tech savvyness to align to power. Airbnb met a desire for authenticity (counter signalling status) in travel experiences.

Some years ago I did an exercise about mapping startups and tech to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, and what clicked is there wan't a tech problem I couldn't eventually find a solution to - I just couldn't think of other people I wanted to listen to and respond to their desires, which sounds awful, but I'd challenge anyone to answer the question of who they want to listen to and support. Chances are, you will have the same problem. Wishing some people were a different way doesn't count, and educating them about some truth you are in posession of ends as well as one might expect. Who do you want to listen to?

Problems without people attached to them are boring and useless iterations on disconnected ideas. A version of the post of that listed groups of people Gwern would like to listen to and respond to their desires would be super interesting though.


Buried under miscellaneous:

> NN GANs for photorealistic-but-legal child porn

Hmmm.


What would be the legality of this, given mere possession is illegal in many jurisdictions? The only way i see this positively, is as a kind of methadone for pedophiles, where they can wean their habits without further harming more children.

Honestly i see this as a gateway drug for real harm, but for sure it is a damn controversial and thought provoking proposal.


Yes it's an obvious gateway to real harm as you said. Which is why, last I checked, it was outlawed in Britain. You aren't allowed to skirt the law by using artistic representations of criminal acts. Which led to the tragi-comic episode of a man being locked up for forwarding a porno featuring an actor in a Tony the Tiger costume.


Has it actually been demonstrated to be a gateway? It reminds me of the argument that playing GTA is a gateway to becoming an actual thug.


I expect this is an area where erring on the side of caution is the better course. There's compelling evidence at least that high pornography consumption can lead to development of more extreme perversions and fetishes (check google scholar to confirm since I don't remember the studies). The known treatment in this case is psychotherapy, which is yet another reason that accessibility to mental health care ought to be universal.


Yes. To demonstrate lets phrase the question thus: Does watching videos of people drinking cola, make people more likely to actually buy and drink more cola?

For more details, I recommend reading material from the advertising industry, starting with Edward Bernays https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_(book)


I'm not sure this has been demonstrated academically. https://www.springer.com/about+springer/media/springer+selec...

"Most significantly, they found that the number of reported cases of child sex abuse dropped markedly immediately after the ban on sexually explicit materials was lifted in 1989. In both Denmark and Japan, the situation is similar: Child sex abuse was much lower than it was when availability of child pornography was restricted."

(I must admit I haven't looked into it much however, you will have to decide for yourself how much you trust Diamond M et al).

However, anecdotally, after I masturbate to pornography my desire to engage in real-life sexual activity markedly goes down. That is the point of masturbating to pornography, isn't it?


I think a more relevant question would be something like: Does watching rape porn make people more likely to rape? Does watching porn make people more or less likely to rape? Or something similar to that.

I'm sure there are places where porn has been illegal but later become legal, looking at how it changed the rape statistics might give some weak evidence (though correlation is not the same as causation of course).


Why make it so narrow? Simply does viewing X behaviour promote X behaviour? A hundred years of advertising says yes.


Advertising doesn't just show the product being consumed (not that modern pornography shows just sex). But, take cola commercials as an example. You barely see the product in these advertisements anymore, just the branding associated with the product. What you see are actionable items to associate with the item; sexy men and women, a luxurious lifestyle, fun, friends, wealth. They're associating a lifestyle with the brand in a Pavlovian way, so when you see the logo on the side of the box, or the can, you don't even think cola anymore, you think lifestyle. That's what a hundred years of advertising has taught us.


The closer comparison one can make the better, right?

Drinking coca cola isn't illegal or even looked down upon. Rape porn isn't advertisement for rape and is not meant to encourage people to rape. Coca cola advertisement/product placements is designed to make people buy it more.

The two cases are in my opinion very different.

Do you suggest rape porn or rape scenes in movies promote more rape in the real world? What about violence in video games? I don't claim to know the answer, but I've thought that was disproved (though I haven't really looked into it).


I read it as a joke, the entry ends with "You know what they say in SV: every good startup breaks at least a few laws…".

Edit: also, the page has the following subtitle "Proposals for new technologies, businesses, startups, satirical or serious. ". I think it's clearly satirical.


Child porn is never a laughing matter. It destroys lives.


I must disagree, personally. Everything can be a laughing matter. At times, everything /should/ be a laughing matter.

There's no way I would have made it this far if I couldn't occasionally laugh in the face of the darkest parts of life. Jokes about a loved ones' recent suicide, my best friend's child sexual abuse, and my own struggles with depression, have all made me and the person I was talking to feel better.

It's hard to feel bad when you're laughing.


I’m not saying it’s a good joke though, or even should be defended.


FFS. I vote we make those illegal now.


I am honestly shocked by that! When you google authors name, you get bunch of anime faces + GAN research papers. So clearly, this is not a joke, but his personal interest/fetish developed after long hours behind his PC. I believe he needs medical treatment and not propose "startup ideas"!


I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, it's hard to tell over the internet. But if it's not, out of curiosity, how did you make the connection between anime and child pornography?


Illegal in Germany.


Indoor tree-climbing gyms caught my eye. My first thought was "that's dumb, we already have natural trees outdoors. Why do we need to put them indoors?". Then I remembered we also have natural cliffs and indoor wall climbing is still huge. :-D

OT: I love the design of this website! Some interesting details here - https://gwern.net/Design


Re indoor wallclimbing: I don't have any natural cliffs near me (I think the closest thing would be abandoned quarries at >2hrs driving) and I think that holds for many people.


> "that's dumb, we already have natural trees outdoors. Why do we need to put them indoors?"

Do you live some place where it does not snow in winter?


At least at my climbing gym they change the routes frequently, providing a lot of variety and covering a wider spectrum of grading than any single location anywhere nearby can. Not to mention it never rains or snows in the gym, you don't have to haul equipment to the site, and it's slightly safer.


I think recreating tall cliffs indoors is dumb. Why climb up high? Instead make a large cylinder that rotates slowly and mount it over a ball pit.


The closest thing to the "indoor tree-climbing gym" that I can think of might be the City Museum in St. Louis.


I like rock wall climbing but tree-climbing sounds dangerous. How could you fall safely without hitting branches on the way down?


Hinges in branches automatically fold once a fall has been detected by video surveillance/weight&load sensors.

Combine with foamy floor/ballpens.


That sounds like an overcomplicated maintenance nightmare with a too-high false positive and negative rate.



These are obviously (?) mostly facetious, but for people interested in actual startup ideas, worth thinking more about problems than just market opportunities:

"The way to get startup ideas is not to try to think of startup ideas. It's to look for problems, preferably problems you have yourself." — Paul Graham on 'How to Get Startup Ideas' - http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html

Further reading; here's the initial problem and customer segment that 99 of the biggest companies in tech today started with originally: "99 Startup Problems" - https://www.opinionx.co/99-problems/


I had built a geo-spatial build-your-own adventure game. The problem is not in tech. The problem is that people want to be entertained WHERE they are bored not go somewhere to not be bored. The ask for adoption is too high. Unless of course you can collect rare Pokemon.


Say a startup actually goes and implements one of Gwern's ideas...they further become a great success and then a unicorn.

Would Gwern point to his idea and try to take credit for the startup success or would he stick to SV mantra that ideas are cheap and low value?


People have already used my ideas, like https://www.lipreading.org/ or a bunch of things derived from my anime GAN work https://gwern.net/Faces (Admittedly, no unicorns, but how many people can say that?)

I've never asked a cent, because ideas are cheap, and timing/implementation everything: https://gwern.net/Timing


Don't know, good question. But why should we care about credit? I know we do but should we?

FWIW, I have lots of ideas on my Trello, it's not hard to come up ideas that have potential in my eyes, but the problem is to have energy or motivation to test-drive them and see if they could be sculpted into fruitful applications, not to mention profitability and marketing which I know nothing about.


> but the problem is to have energy or motivation to test-drive them

Exactly, I feel Gwern is sidestepping this problem and could leverage the social hatred around the future founder of multibillion dollar company to claim that they are a fraud and he's the one who came up with the idea.

kinda like the Winklevi with Zuck, but in the era of blogging, social media and metaverse


I like the idea of Choose-Your-Own-Adventure AI Dungeon Games; I remember taking part in a forum CYOA (where the forum posters vote on which option will be chosen) where the writer used dungeon AI to write the text; once they arrived at an interesting cut off point, they just added the choices and posted on the forum


I read the acronym wrong the first time through: cover your own a...dventure..


this blog summarises what's wrong with the world today


https://gwern.net/Startup-ideas#pet-lemon-market what the actual fuck? seriously positing that a company sell purpose made pets with illnesses to extract money from people who love them? what kind of "value" did this add to the world? disgusting.


I advise not looking up Japan's live creature keychains where a little turtle is doomed to die in a pouch. "So cute!" or something. I find it horrible.


> Indoor Tree-Climbing Gym

Congratulations, you just invented rope pyramids: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=rope+pyramid&t=ffab&ia=web


Carbon(Co2) credits to offset the cost/impact of your dog/pet, so you can have an eco responsable pet. Sell nft based tokens of these credits that can be pressed into a unique collar to show your mindfulness. Anybody ?


Firewood for rent


I really like the idea of mouse longevity perpetual swaps. Wasn't too interested in any of the other ones.


Ong bak was the real movie reference to use for tree climbing.


dynamic cat toys have been on my mind a lot lately.




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