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all 31 comments

[–]mcjunkerProfessional Chesterton Impersonator 46 points47 points  (3 children)

It’s intriguing to think that how effective LKW’s administration can be when it disregards all the baseline assumptions and values we hold dear.

However I do have a question to pose to you (cloaked as you are in your authority as the guy who read the book); in theory, had he died of a brain aneurysm ten seconds after setting up his system in Singapore, would the system survive him?

Because it seems like they lucked out by getting a leader who is smart enough to think his way through problems, generous enough to not abuse or neglect his people, and wise enough to know when not to lean on them if the situation doesn’t call for it. That’s honestly pretty fucking rad. I’d love to live under a king like that.

But kings die, and will their heirs be on their level?

[–]TracingWoodgrainsFirst, do no harm[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

There are a couple questions here. First, would the government system as a whole survive? Yeah--it's just a parliamentary system with a Cabinet put in place by the winning party. I don't think he had anything to do with setting the original structure up. His party started as the opposition party, then didn't so much seize unilateral control as have unilateral control shoved at them when the only other major party boycotted an election. In theory, the PAP could still be voted out at any time. They're just not, for reasons I'll address in part 4--mostly creating a really, really effective ground organization.

More important, though, and I think more to the essence of what you're asking, is the question of whether it would look anything like his hopes. He had some highly skilled cabinet members who probably would have done a good job with or without him, but no, a lot of policies depended heavily on the man himself. It's a more circular question than you might expect, though, because my impression is that a major reason their system feels so entrenched is simply because LKY did a really good job when he had power. There was just never a compelling reason to push for a major change, even though the system allows it.

Without him, the PAP would have been much weaker and most likely would have faded back to one being one of several parties contesting for Singaporean leadership, if an independent Singapore had survived at all.

[–]roystgnr 18 points19 points  (1 child)

This reminds me of "The Small Schools Myth". Anything you do to increase the variance of outcomes (like having schools with fewer students, or countries with fewer people, or administrations for either with more centralized and unfettered control) will increase the likelihood of the best of those outcomes ending up at high percentiles, even if the expectation of the outcomes doesn't increase. If you're trying to maximize expected utility then for most outcomes you'd like to reduce variance (because in terms of utility there's a lot more room for things to get worse than to get better), but if you try to pick your outcomes by copying top performers then you are likely to unwittingly increase variance instead.

[–]KingWalrax 8 points9 points  (0 children)

To build on this: it’s worth noting that in an iterated game, increasing variance even if the expected value is unchanged can often be the best long term strategy.

The free-ish movement of People and Capital let people gravitate towards winners and compound their good choices.

Singapore’s system might depend entirely on the high variance whims of its founding dictator. But having had a somewhat benevolent figure in that role, the state of the game at T+1 is many more individuals living well in a prosperous society than might have been expected.

[–]losvedir 15 points16 points  (2 children)

I appreciate the review. Really fascinating stuff. You've alluded a couple times to how it worked well for LKY but maybe not so much going forward. I think that's an interesting point.

I lived in Singapore for a year, and when I was there, this lawsuit was the hot story of the day. Again, it's the PM using the force of the state to harry a blogger, which instinctively makes me uncomfortable, even if it's a valid law suite (I have no idea if it is). But the difference here, is it's not the late LKY doing it, but their new prime minister, who doesn't have the same venerable track record to fall back on. Like, sure maybe a benevolent dictator was great for the country, but with that authoritarian culture and a not so benevolent dictator things can get bad fast.

[–]kiztent 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Agree.

Also bear in mind you are talking about a country that in the US would be the 10th most populous metro area (bigger than Boston metro, smaller than Atlanta). Scale matters.

[–]ralf_ 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I lived in Singapore for a year

How did you like it? Any stories?

[–]rarely_beagle 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Left unspoken, though, is that he's the one who's in charge of this whole system of lawsuits. Vigorous refutation of an idea can happen in writing, in speeches, in any number of official channels. If he wants to keep his public and private life open to scrutiny, he can do so however he chooses. Electing to wage time-consuming and costly legal battles against people who putforward unsavory ideas is hardly the only choice for the most powerful man in a country, and it's a choice that I feel warrants skepticism.

I think it's unfair to challenge these legal battles on the grounds that they are costly and time-consuming without weighing these costs against the rewards. Assuming LKY is treated equally under the law (big assumption), this has the effect of strengthening trust in the legal system and autocrat while establishing a personal reputation as someone who makes it not worthwhile for future journalists to make libelous accusations.

The power symmetry argument I feel is much more persuasive. When we see Xi Xinping wield the power of state for political ends, it might lower our estimation of authoritarian capitalism and raise our estimation of LKY as one-off BDFL.

Also, one of many great bits from your 1965 NYT CIA link, which I think warrants a full reading:

Robert J. McCloskey, the [state] department's spokesmen, said yesterday: "First, we are surprised at these statements attributed to Prime Minister Lee. With respect to allegations of a C.I.A. involvement, we deny that allegation." After Mr. Lee produced the letter from Secretary Rusk, dated April 15, 1961, and threatened to broadcast tape recordings to prove his charge, am embarrassed Mr, McCloskey corrected himself.

[–]Looking_round 10 points11 points  (2 children)

Just chimed in to say that I throughly enjoyed the review, and look forward to the rest. I might even compare notes with you after you have written everything, if you are interested in hearing how those policies map down to the street level, since I'm from Singapore.

[–]TracingWoodgrainsFirst, do no harm[S] 9 points10 points  (1 child)

Yes, please, if you wouldn't mind! I've been considering cross-posting to /r/singapore when I'm done to see how my reactions align or conflict with on-the-ground views. It would be great to get a local perspective when the review wraps up.

[–]Looking_round 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Lovely. I'm looking forward to a discussion with you.

[–]AroillaBuran 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Again, repeat of what I'm saying - glad you're doing this :)

[–]t3tsuboIANYL 5 points6 points  (2 children)

Thanks for doing this, great review.

I'd note that the public perception of the court system in Singapore is that there is definitely some selective favoritism going on rather than true judicial independence. The ruling party and the Lee family are almost never unsuccessful in Singapore's courts.

See: https://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/singapore-family-feud-judicial-independence/

Notwithstanding this rosy picture, Singapore‟s courts avoid ruling against the governing party, and indeed have been used to silence the opposition through libel actions. One can characterize the judiciary as having a good deal of independence over economic and administrative matters, but little in the realm of politics.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/a81b/b12a7886f2e4ee40bc6cae7424332e2a7f40.pdf

[–]dedicating_ruckusadvanced form of sarcasm 7 points8 points  (1 child)

I'd be cautious of taking the writings of English-language papers in Singapore as truly representative of "public perception" in such matters. It's a common pattern that such outlets are essentially Cathedral subsidiaries devoted largely to managing the opinions of Cathedralites, mostly in the US; that article certainly reads like it's one of those.

(my prior examples are mostly from Japan; things may be different in Singapore, since English is spoken much more commonly there, IIUC.)

[–]t3tsuboIANYL 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I don't mean public perception of HK citizens, I mean public perception of the world at large.

Anecdotally, I have family who's appeared as an expert witness in a few court cases involving the Singapore government in the Singapore courts and he's told me the trials there are a sham when the government is involved.

[–]DovesOfWar 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Good stuff. However, as he's telling his own story and puts a lot of effort into muzzling criticism, it's no wonder that his achievements appear one-sided.

[–]ReaperReader 5 points6 points  (3 children)

From memory, didn't he sue people for libel in British courts?

[–]TracingWoodgrainsFirst, do no harm[S] 7 points8 points  (2 children)

With the story of the London Times reporter, he mentions inviting him to debate in part because “to sue Levin in England, where I was not widely known and did not have any voters, would have been pointless.” (196) Other times, he does mention people “appeal[ing] all the way up to the Privy Council in London” 128 and that he took opinions of council in both Singapore and London before proceeding with lawsuits, so it does sound like Britain was involved sometimes.

[–]UnusualCartography 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The Privy Council in this context probably refers to the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council, which was the highest court of appeal for the entire British Empire and indeed remains the highest court of appeal for a few independent Commonwealth countries. Singapore only fully abolished the right to appeal to the Privy Council in in 1994, although the right to appeal had been severely restricted since 1989. It may be that LKY sued for libel in Singapore but the cases were ultimately appealed out of the Singaporean courts to the Privy Council in London.

[–]ReaperReader 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Ah that might have been what I was misremembering, thanks!

[–]Deeppop 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thank you for your work on writing this! It's an amazing subject.

[–]ineedmoresleep 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is really fascinating.

[–]Latias876 2 points3 points  (4 children)

Hii thanks for writing this! As a Singaporean, I'm quite biased to Mr Lee Kuan Yew so I agree with majority of what he said here, to be honest. I do like your review on his actions though and agree that you have a point as well.

I don't really follow politics so I may be inaccurate on this, but my opinion on why he did the things he did is stop fake news. Truth aren't the same as facts as one single fact can be a myriad if different truths to various people. Because of this, I think the reason why he's so insistent on those lawsuits is because if he let the person be, then fake news will spread and everybody will get a lot of false facts that'd be extremely difficult to clear later.

I haven't read the book so I may be wrong though. What do you think?

[–]TracingWoodgrainsFirst, do no harm[S] 1 point2 points  (3 children)

That's definitely the impression he gives of why he was so aggressive about those lawsuits. I have two things to go off of, here: 1. his writing, 2. my cultural immersion in the value of American-style free speech. By all accounts, he was scrupulously honest and I can understand why he would see such importance in going after falsehoods. At the same time, though, the mental image for Americans fits uncomfortably close to any one of a thousand pictures of authoritarian governments that define for their populace what truth is, then silence anybody who disagrees.

From what I've seen, LKY didn't abuse his power like this at all, but a less honest person in the same position could have. That's a major reason I prefer to see people stay far away lines like this, using routes other than the legal system to counter falsehood.

[–]Latias876 1 point2 points  (2 children)

Ahh I see now. By the way, I just finished reading your first post and what struck me is that you seemed really surprised by how pragmatic he is. I'm kind of confused by this as isn't a leader supposed to be pragmatic? Of course, I'm not saying that it's bad to be idealogical as I'm a rather idealistic person myself, but I always had taken it as a given that governments must be pragmatic or else they'll fall.

Like, no offense to the US, but I think that the reason why they're having a such a bad time now is because their leaders aren't being pragmatic. From what I'm seeing right now, their leaders are being influenced by rich companies and biases like race and gender. How does being racist help your people? You're just limiting the potential of your working class. How does being sexist help your country? You're just morphing your it into a place that half of your population doesn't even want to live in cause they're getting catcalled all day. Also, I really can't get over how the US had made their medical bills cost so much. How does making your citizens sick help the country? They wouldn't be able to even do their work properly if you do that!

I didn't want to touch too much on morals since we're talking about pragmatism, so I just want to say that pragmatism is extremely important, even if a leader is a morally ambiguous one. If you're running a society, then you must be responsible and take care of that society. Your shock over how pragmatic he is troubles me as this indicates to me that a lot of leaders aren't like this.

What do your views on this? Also, I'm sorry if I sound ignorant, I'm still a teenager who's having a hard time understanding politics.

[–]TracingWoodgrainsFirst, do no harm[S] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Yeah, a leader absolutely should be pragmatic. The United States, in my view, is suffering from an excess of ideological leadership without looking for pragmatic, middle-road solutions. Nobody (almost nobody) wants racism, sexism, and poor health care. But they're hard to eliminate, and if there's too extreme a political divide in a system like the US, almost nothing can get done. That's basically where we're at.

One reason I emphasized LKY's pragmatism so much is that I believe it's a quality worth emulating.

[–]Latias876 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ohh I see. I feel really bad for you guys. It's bad enough when a project team can't move on due to different beliefs and stubborn personalities, but it's a million times worse when the same thing applies to a nation who are making decisions that are impacting all of their citizen's lives. Idealogies are good but extremities aren't. I hope that your next election goes better and you guys will get a sensible and kind person as your president. Otherwise, your country will hit its limit soon and revolt.

[–]atgabara 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Thanks a lot for writing this up. One thing I want to push back on:

Will a policy make people more self-sufficient, more capable, or safer? Ultimately, does it work? Oh, and does it make everybody furious?

Great, do that.

I haven't read the book, so correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression was that his thought process was more like:

Will a policy make people more self-sufficient, more capable, or safer? Ultimately, does it work?

Great, do that.

Oh, does it make everybody furious?

I don't care one way or the other.

Do you agree with this revision? (I think you wrote your version tongue in cheek, but I wouldn't want people to get the wrong impression.)

[–]TracingWoodgrainsFirst, do no harm[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, absolutely, this is more accurate. I just like the flow and tongue-in-cheek nature of my version.

[–]far_infared 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Everybody thinks this guy who is controlling the press is the greatest thing since George Washington, but didn't they get that idea from reading about the success of his policies in the press, which he exerted clear and public influence on? Because he works so hard to set the narrative, every claimed success of his administration should be looked on with extreme skepticism.

Secondly, the thing about the capitalist press barrons isn't right. The news you read is the logical or of the news that gets published, which means that if one barron defects from the conspiracy the beans are out. It's a secret coordination nightmare that gets worse with the number of participants. An individual paper controlled by Jeff Bezos is not in principle is not more reliable than a government-controled press, but a large number of independently controled papers is.

[–]TracingWoodgrainsFirst, do no harm[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

His successes have, by and large, been independently verified. See their rankings on international lists, for example. Hard to fake a budget surplus for 50 years, or one of the highest GDPs per citizen, or their healthcare system, or PISA scores, or their corruption ranking. He had public influence on the press, but also a well-established reputation for honesty that seems to be backed up pretty well by independent groups.