A mistake I often see: people using self-driving car R&D timelines to estimate how long it’ll take to scale self-driving. Yes, it took awhile to remove the Safety Driver—with a few missed milestones along the way—but scaling is going way faster…
@Cruise was founded in 2013, and it took 7 long years of ML and robotics R&D to unlock 1 fully driverless AV in SF. But, in just the last 12 months we expanded to 125(!) concurrent AVs, scaled from 1 city to 3 in <90 days, and grew # of rides 4x in the last quarter.

Feb 7, 2023 · 3:40 AM UTC

The R&D phase was fundamentally unpredictable. Massive breakthroughs in CV, prediction, planning, and safety were needed to deliver a generalizable, safe self-driving car. Each required experimentation and iteration, with failure the default. Tough to provide accurate dates!
In late ‘21, we launched our first fully driverless car. R&D was no longer the limiting factor. With our Continuous Learning Machine & sim, we further proved our tech can generalize to new cities it’s never driven in before. Since then, we’ve scaled cars & customers each week.
(To be clear, we still invest deeply in R&D, and the tech you haven’t seen yet is mind-blowing. It’s just not the limiting factor anymore!)
Scaling is a challenging, yet more predictable problem. It’s fundamentally an infrastructure challenge. We’re building both the physical and virtual infra to support and scale a fleet of novel vehicles (hi Origin!) in new markets.
It’s physical infra like standing up facilities, storage, maintenance, and charging, or virtual infra like fleet tools, CS, mapping, and remote assistance. These are very difficult challenges, but the solutions and timelines are understood. No R&D breakthroughs required.
So, if you think scaling self-driving will feel as laborious as unlocking driverless in the first place, I believe you’ll be pleasantly surprised with how fast this product rolls out across the country and world. It’s happening really fast.
That feels like a hockey stick growth with all four stages: tinkering, the blade years, the growth inflection, and surging growth.
When you say “1 city”.. you mean one tiny part of Frisco.. even so credit where credit is due, it’s been great to see progress after so many years
Rockstars! Excited to see the origin on the streets 👀. Any word on when the public will be allowed to ride in those?