1—A piece I wrote for @BBC_Future on 'the first long-termists': How tampering with atoms taught us we could be living during the very opening of human history— triggering the first efflorescence of serious ethical thought about humanity's longrun future. bbc.com/future/article/20210…

Creatures of the dawn: How radioactivity unlocked deep time

When scientists discovered the energy embedded within atoms, it transformed how we think about the long-term future of humanity, writes the historian Thomas Moynihan.

bbc.com
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2—In the piece, I argue the US geologist Thomas Chamberlin is an important precursor to modern longtermism. Having realised how long the Earth will remain habitable, & how many future people there could be, he saw that the biggest impacts are those that unfold over the long-term.
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3—In his own words: "The highest conception of altruism which I am able to form is built on the thought of doing things that are sound enough [to] last and be doing good ages after they have lost the name and superscription of those who set them going." —Thomas Chamberlin, 1910.
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4—Also, physicist James Jeans - who said we are "creatures of the dawn": "Looked at on the astronomical time-scale, humanity is at the very beginning of its existence—a new-born babe, with all the unexplored potentialities of babyhood." - 1928.
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5—By revealing new power sources for the Sun and Earth, in the form of little "atomic stoves", radioactivity forced timescales to expand dramatically. Both in terms of Earth's deep past...
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5—But also in terms of the vast future of habitability ahead. Beautifully illustrating this was Robert Strutt's "radium clock": powered by a pinch of radium, it was projected to tick for many millennia. The future ahead of humanity, full of potential, had ballooned...
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5—But Chamberlin, Jeans, & others keenly realised that potentials can be wasted. Chamberlin wrote that protracted habitability "does not necessarily carry the actual realization of the future opportunities thus open to our [species]”.
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6—Keying into this, radioactivity's discovery triggered the first panic that physics tampering and unlocked atoms might destroy the planet (setting off a chain reaction, igniting the Earth). One engineer, T.F. Wall, triggered public hysteria with his atom-smashing experiments:
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7—Key insights: First, I find it fascinating that a small group of physicists + geologists arrived at all the key components for ethical longtermism in the 1910s and 20s. Why did it not spill into a wider movement? Why is this efflorescence of long-term thinking forgotten?

Sep 30, 2021 · 3:49 PM UTC

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8—My sense is the commodious future unveiled by atomic physics in the 10s + 20s was later reigned in the urgency & exigency instilled by its weaponisation in the 40s + 50s. @rifish speaks of "shortermist pressures" across history. This is a great example. technologyreview.com/2020/10…

Humanity is stuck in short-term thinking. Here’s how we escape.

Our sense of the future has expanded and contracted over time. But survival means learning new lessons from the shocks society is facing right now.

technologyreview.com
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9—Second, there are key lessons here regarding AI timelines and other timelines on emerging tech. In the 1920s, expert opinions varied wildly on the feasibility and timeframe on unlocking atoms. In 1930, Nobel-winner Robert Milikan said weaponising atoms is a "hobgoblin"...
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10—He scoffed at fears of "some bad boy among the scientists" turning Earth to "star dust", saying God had put childlocks on his handiwork so that we couldn't disturb the universe. Less than 10 years later, nuclear fission was unlocked.
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11—Point being, tech/science timelines are slippery. It pays to be prepared rather than complacent! I plan on writing up more on Chamberlin, Jeans, and this circle of early proto-longtermist thinkers very soon. Watch this space!
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12—To finish up, first, here's Jeans's full quote on childhood's end and our place within the "cosmical timetable":
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13—And, finally, this thread wouldn't be complete without a VQGAN+CLIP, inspired by Jeans's visualisation of the the potential prospect ahead if we represent civilization's established past as a post-stamp. "A pile of post-stamps, as tall as Mont Blanc":
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