--- title: '‘causality’ directory' description: "Bibliography for directory statistics/causality, most recent first: 3 related tags, 182 annotations, & 51 links ()." thumbnail: /doc/statistics/causality/2025-ballin-figure1-extensivefamilylevelconfoundinginphysicalfitnessandcorrelates.jpg thumbnail-text: '' thumbnail-css: "outline" created: 2019-05-13 modified: 2026-04-25 status: in progress previous: /doc/statistics/bias/publication/miscitation/index next: /doc/statistics/decision/index confidence: log importance: 0 css-extension: dropcaps-not index: True backlink: False ... ::: {#manual-annotation .abstract-small .abstract-tag-directory} [\[essay on this tag topic\]](/causality "Transclude link for doc/statistics/causality/ annotation of essay on this topic."){#gwern-causality .link-annotated .include-annotation .include-strict} ::: # See Also ::: {#see-alsos .directory-indexes .columns} - [Parent ('*`statistics`{=html}*' tag)](/doc/statistics/index "Link to parent directory 'doc/statistics/' (ascending)"){#_EAUtJZ86 .link-annotated .link-tag .directory-indexes-upwards rel="tag"} - [*`Mendelian Randomization`{=html}*](/doc/genetics/heritable/correlation/mendelian-randomization/index "‘Mendelian Randomization’ directory"){#_V752JfBD .link-annotated .link-tag .directory-indexes-sideways rel="tag"} - [*`epigenetics (aging)`{=html}*](/doc/longevity/epigenetics/index "‘epigenetics (aging)’ directory"){#_iRWtPT3r .link-annotated .link-tag .directory-indexes-sideways rel="tag"} - [*`regression to a mean`{=html}*](/doc/statistics/bayes/regression-to-mean/index "‘regression to a mean’ directory"){#_8LEzTTCn .link-annotated .link-tag .directory-indexes-sideways rel="tag"} ::: # Gwern {.display-pop-not} ## `“Against Caring About Subtle Poisons”, Gwern 2023`{=html} {#gwern-2023-subtle-poisons-section} **[`Against Caring About Subtle Poisons`{=html}](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/16wdxzk/whats_the_deal_with_subtle_poisons/k2wlpvb/ "'Against Caring About Subtle Poisons', Gwern 2023"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="reddit" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#ff4500"}** ## `“Statistical Notes”, Gwern 2014`{=html} {#gwern-note-statistic-section} **[`Statistical Notes`{=html}](/note/statistic "'Statistical Notes', Gwern 2014"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠: Time Travel In Hell”, Gwern 2023`{=html} {#gwern-review-timecrimes-section} **[`𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠: Time Travel In Hell`{=html}](/review/timecrimes "'𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠: Time Travel In Hell', Gwern 2023"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Everything Is Correlated”, Gwern 2014`{=html} {#gwern-everything-section} **[`Everything Is Correlated`{=html}](/everything "'Everything Is Correlated', Gwern 2014"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“How Often Does Correlation=Causality?”, Gwern 2014`{=html} {#gwern-correlation-section} **[`How Often Does Correlation=Causality?`{=html}](/correlation "'How Often Does Correlation=Causality?', Gwern 2014"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation”, Gwern 2014`{=html} {#gwern-causality-section} **[`Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation`{=html}](/causality "'Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation', Gwern 2014"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science”, Gwern 2010`{=html} {#gwern-replication-section} **[`The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science`{=html}](/replication "'The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science', Gwern 2010"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern 2019`{=html} {#gwern-research-criticism-section} **[`How Should We Critique Research?`{=html}](/research-criticism "'How Should We Critique Research?', Gwern 2019"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story”, Gwern 2012`{=html} {#gwern-story-of-your-life-section} **[`‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story`{=html}](/story-of-your-life "'‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story', Gwern 2012"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** # Links {.display-pop-not} ## `“Unlocking a Taxpayer-Funded Dataset”, Cremieux 2026`{=html} {#cremieux-2026-section} **[`Unlocking a Taxpayer-Funded Dataset`{=html}](https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/unlocking-a-taxpayer-funded-dataset "'Unlocking a Taxpayer-Funded Dataset', Cremieux 2026"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Does Driver’s License Training Work? [Hard to Tell]”, Kirkegaard 2025`{=html} {#kirkegaard-2025-section} **[`Does driver’s license training work? [hard to tell]`{=html}](https://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/2025/12/does-drivers-license-training-work/ "'Does driver’s license training work? [hard to tell]', Kirkegaard 2025"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Everything Is Correlated (2014–2023)”`{=html} {#_5-niFYF5-section} **[`Everything is correlated (2014–2023)`{=html}](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44980339 "Everything is correlated (2014–2023)"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="hacker-news" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f26522"}** ## `“Is the World’s Big Idea for Greener Air Travel a Flight of Fancy? Suspicions of Fraud, ‘Ridiculous’ Data and a Dearth of Supplies—Our Investigation Exposes the Flaws in the Airline Industry’s Big Green Hope: Sustainable Aviation Fuel”, Civillini et al 2025`{=html} {#civillini-et-al-2025-section} **[`Is the world’s big idea for greener air travel a flight of fancy? Suspicions of fraud, ‘ridiculous’ data and a dearth of supplies—our investigation exposes the flaws in the airline industry’s big green hope: sustainable aviation fuel`{=html}](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/06/18/is-the-worlds-big-idea-for-greener-air-travel-a-flight-of-fancy/ "'Is the world’s big idea for greener air travel a flight of fancy? Suspicions of fraud, ‘ridiculous’ data and a dearth of supplies—our investigation exposes the flaws in the airline industry’s big green hope: sustainable aviation fuel', Civillini et al 2025"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Three Promising Directions in the Study of Intelligence With Genetic Methods”, Lee & Morris 2025b`{=html} {#lee-morris-2025b-section} **[`Three Promising Directions in the Study of Intelligence With Genetic Methods`{=html}](/doc/iq/2025-lee-2.pdf "'Three Promising Directions in the Study of Intelligence With Genetic Methods', Lee & Morris 2025b"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Adolescence and Premature Mortality: Widespread Bias Identified Using Negative Control Outcomes and Sibling Comparisons [Supplement]”, Ballin 2025`{=html} {#ballin-2025-section} **[`Cardiorespiratory fitness in adolescence and premature mortality: widespread bias identified using negative control outcomes and sibling comparisons [supplement]`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2025-ballin-supplement.pdf "'Cardiorespiratory fitness in adolescence and premature mortality: widespread bias identified using negative control outcomes and sibling comparisons [supplement]', Ballin 2025"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Adolescence and Premature Mortality: Widespread Bias Identified Using Negative Control Outcomes and Sibling Comparisons”, Ballin et al 2025`{=html} {#ballin-et-al-2025-section} **[`Cardiorespiratory fitness in adolescence and premature mortality: widespread bias identified using negative control outcomes and sibling comparisons`{=html}](https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf267/8128214 "'Cardiorespiratory fitness in adolescence and premature mortality: widespread bias identified using negative control outcomes and sibling comparisons', Ballin et al 2025"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="OUP" link-icon-type="text,tri" link-icon-color="#011d3f"}** ## `“Causal Emergence 2.0: Quantifying Emergent Complexity”, Hoel 2025`{=html} {#hoel-2025-section} **[`Causal Emergence 2.0: Quantifying emergent complexity`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.13395 "'Causal Emergence 2.0: Quantifying emergent complexity', Hoel 2025"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Evaluating Agreement between Individual Nutrition Randomized Controlled Trials and Cohort Studies: a Meta-Epidemiological Study”, Stadelmaier et al 2025`{=html} {#stadelmaier-et-al-2025-section} **[`Evaluating agreement between individual nutrition randomized controlled trials and cohort studies: a meta-epidemiological study`{=html}](https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-025-03860-2 "'Evaluating agreement between individual nutrition randomized controlled trials and cohort studies: a meta-epidemiological study', Stadelmaier et al 2025"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="springerlink" link-icon-type="svg"}** ## `“When Machine Learning Tells the Wrong Story”`{=html} {#_2_e52yiB-section} **[`When Machine Learning Tells the Wrong Story`{=html}](https://jackcook.com/2024/11/09/bigger-fish.html "When Machine Learning Tells the Wrong Story"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Causal Inference on Human Behaviour”, Bailey et al 2024`{=html} {#bailey-et-al-2024-section} **[`Causal inference on human behaviour`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2024-bailey.pdf "'Causal inference on human behaviour', Bailey et al 2024"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Missed Causes and Ambiguous Effects: Counterfactuals Pose Challenges for Interpreting Neural Networks”, Mueller 2024`{=html} {#mueller-2024-section} **[`Missed Causes and Ambiguous Effects: Counterfactuals Pose Challenges for Interpreting Neural Networks`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.04690 "'Missed Causes and Ambiguous Effects: Counterfactuals Pose Challenges for Interpreting Neural Networks', Mueller 2024"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Evaluating the World Model Implicit in a Generative Model”, Vafa et al 2024`{=html} {#vafa-et-al-2024-section} **[`Evaluating the World Model Implicit in a Generative Model`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.03689 "'Evaluating the World Model Implicit in a Generative Model', Vafa et al 2024"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Automated Social Science: Language Models As Scientist and Subjects”, Manning et al 2024`{=html} {#manning-et-al-2024-section} **[`Automated Social Science: Language Models as Scientist and Subjects`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11794 "'Automated Social Science: Language Models as Scientist and Subjects', Manning et al 2024"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Covid-19 Is (Probably) Not an Exogenous Shock or Valid Instrument”, Clement 2024`{=html} {#clement-2024-section} **[`Covid-19 is (Probably) Not an Exogenous Shock or Valid Instrument`{=html}](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4778282 "'Covid-19 is (Probably) Not an Exogenous Shock or Valid Instrument', Clement 2024"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="SSRN" link-icon-type="text,quad" link-icon-color="#007398"}** ## `“How Transformers Learn Causal Structure With Gradient Descent”, Nichani et al 2024`{=html} {#nichani-et-al-2024-section} **[`How Transformers Learn Causal Structure with Gradient Descent`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.14735 "'How Transformers Learn Causal Structure with Gradient Descent', Nichani et al 2024"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Troubleshooting: The Skill That Never Goes Obsolete”, Curiositry 2024`{=html} {#curiositry-2024-section} **[`Troubleshooting: The Skill That Never Goes Obsolete`{=html}](https://www.autodidacts.io/troubleshooting/ "'Troubleshooting: The Skill That Never Goes Obsolete', Curiositry 2024"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Robust Agents Learn Causal World Models”, Richens & Everitt 2024`{=html} {#richens-everitt-2024-section} **[`Robust agents learn causal world models`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.10877#deepmind "'Robust agents learn causal world models', Richens & Everitt 2024"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="deepmind" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#4185f4"}** ## `“Correcting for Endogeneity in Models With Bunching”, Carolina et al 2023`{=html} {#carolina-et-al-2023-section} **[`Correcting for Endogeneity in Models with Bunching`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2023-caetano.pdf "'Correcting for Endogeneity in Models with Bunching', Carolina et al 2023"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax”, Research 2023`{=html} {#research-2023-section} **[`A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax`{=html}](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/group/experimentation-platform-exp/articles/a-b-interactions-a-call-to-relax/ "'A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax', Research 2023"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="MS" link-icon-type="text,sans,italic"}** ## `“Do Models Explain Themselves? Counterfactual Simulatability of Natural Language Explanations”, Chen et al 2023`{=html} {#chen-et-al-2023-section} **[`Do Models Explain Themselves? Counterfactual Simulatability of Natural Language Explanations`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.08678 "'Do Models Explain Themselves? Counterfactual Simulatability of Natural Language Explanations', Chen et al 2023"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality”, Kıcıman et al 2023`{=html} {#kıcıman-et-al-2023-section} **[`Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.00050 "'Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality', Kıcıman et al 2023"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Attributing Agnostically Detected Large Reductions in Road CO2 Emissions to Policy Mixes”, Koch et al 2022`{=html} {#koch-et-al-2022-2-section} **[`Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2022-koch.pdf "'Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes', Koch et al 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality”, Daniels & Kupor 2022`{=html} {#daniels-kupor-2022-section} **[`The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality`{=html}](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3415022 "'The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality', Daniels & Kupor 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="SSRN" link-icon-type="text,quad" link-icon-color="#007398"}** ## `“Can Foundation Models Talk Causality?”, Willig et al 2022`{=html} {#willig-et-al-2022-section} **[`Can Foundation Models Talk Causality?`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.10591 "'Can Foundation Models Talk Causality?', Willig et al 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Clarifying the Causes of Consistent and Inconsistent Findings in Genetics”, Dattani et al 2022`{=html} {#dattani-et-al-2022-section} **[`Clarifying the causes of consistent and inconsistent findings in genetics`{=html}](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/gepi.22459 "'Clarifying the causes of consistent and inconsistent findings in genetics', Dattani et al 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="W" link-icon-type="text,sans"}** ## `“Generalizability and Effect Measure Modification in Sibling Comparison Studies”, Sjölander et al 2022`{=html} {#sjölander-et-al-2022-section} **[`Generalizability and effect measure modification in sibling comparison studies`{=html}](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9209381/ "'Generalizability and effect measure modification in sibling comparison studies', Sjölander et al 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid”, Wallace et al 2022`{=html} {#wallace-et-al-2022-2-section} **[`Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2022-wallace.pdf "'Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid', Wallace et al 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Sibling Comparison Studies”, Sjölander et al 2022`{=html} {#sjölander-et-al-2022-section} **[`Sibling Comparison Studies`{=html}](/doc/genetics/heritable/2022-sjolander.pdf "'Sibling Comparison Studies', Sjölander et al 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models”, Kosoy et al 2022`{=html} {#kosoy-et-al-2022-section} **[`Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.10430 "'Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models', Kosoy et al 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Causal Emergence Is Widespread across Measures of Causation”, Comolatti & Hoel 2022`{=html} {#comolatti-hoel-2022-section} **[`Causal emergence is widespread across measures of causation`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.01854 "'Causal emergence is widespread across measures of causation', Comolatti & Hoel 2022"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioral Science”, Milkman et al 2021`{=html} {#milkman-et-al-2021-section} **[`Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science`{=html}](/doc/statistics/prediction/2021-milkman.pdf "'Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science', Milkman et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)”, Geiger et al 2021`{=html} {#geiger-et-al-2021-section} **[`Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.00826 "'Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)', Geiger et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Testing the Structure of Human Cognitive Ability Using Evidence Obtained from the Impact of Brain Lesions over Abilities”, Protzko & Colom 2021`{=html} {#protzko-colom-2021-section} **[`Testing the structure of human cognitive ability using evidence obtained from the impact of brain lesions over abilities`{=html}](/doc/iq/2021-protzko.pdf "'Testing the structure of human cognitive ability using evidence obtained from the impact of brain lesions over abilities', Protzko & Colom 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Providing a Lower-Bound Estimate for Psychology’s ‘Crud Factor’: The Case of Aggression”, Ferguson & Heene 2021`{=html} {#ferguson-heene-2021-section} **[`Providing a lower-bound estimate for psychology’s ‘crud factor’: The case of aggression`{=html}](/doc/psychology/2021-ferguson.pdf "'Providing a lower-bound estimate for psychology’s ‘crud factor’: The case of aggression', Ferguson & Heene 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Is Coffee the Cause or the Cure? Conflicting Nutrition Messages in 2 Decades of Online New York Times’ Nutrition News Coverage”, Ihekweazu 2021`{=html} {#ihekweazu-2021-section} **[`Is Coffee the Cause or the Cure? Conflicting Nutrition Messages in 2 Decades of Online New York Times’ Nutrition News Coverage`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2021-ihekweazu.pdf "'Is Coffee the Cause or the Cure? Conflicting Nutrition Messages in 2 Decades of Online New York Times’ Nutrition News Coverage', Ihekweazu 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Causal Inference With Latent Treatments”, Fong & Grimmer 2021`{=html} {#fong-grimmer-2021-section} **[`Causal Inference with Latent Treatments`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2021-fong.pdf "'Causal Inference with Latent Treatments', Fong & Grimmer 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A Systematic Language Evaluation”, Haber et al 2021`{=html} {#haber-et-al-2021-section} **[`Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A systematic language evaluation`{=html}](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262631.full "'Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A systematic language evaluation', Haber et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="chi-dna" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#bd2736"}** ## `“Common Elective Orthopaedic Procedures and Their Clinical Effectiveness: Umbrella Review of Level 1 Evidence”, Blom et al 2021`{=html} {#blom-et-al-2021-section} **[`Common elective orthopaedic procedures and their clinical effectiveness: umbrella review of level 1 evidence`{=html}](https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1511 "'Common elective orthopaedic procedures and their clinical effectiveness: umbrella review of level 1 evidence', Blom et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="bmj" link-icon-type="text,tri,sans" link-icon-color="#2a6ebb"}** ## `“Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs”, Alexander 2021`{=html} {#alexander-2021-section} **[`Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs`{=html}](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/drug-users-use-a-lot-of-drugs "'Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs', Alexander 2021"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="SSC" link-icon-type="text,tri" link-icon-color="#5175c2"}** ## `“What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory”, Lundberg et al 2021`{=html} {#lundberg-et-al-2021-section} **[`What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2021-lundberg.pdf "'What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory', Lundberg et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Revolution Will Be Hard to Evaluate: How Co-Occurring Policy Changes Affect Research on the Health Effects of Social Policies”, Matthay et al 2021`{=html} {#matthay-et-al-2021-section} **[`The revolution will be hard to evaluate: How co-occurring policy changes affect research on the health effects of social policies`{=html}](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205971.full "'The revolution will be hard to evaluate: How co-occurring policy changes affect research on the health effects of social policies', Matthay et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="chi-dna" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#bd2736"}** ## `“The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”, Tosh et al 2021`{=html} {#tosh-et-al-2021-section} **[`The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.13445 "'The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond', Tosh et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“My Cat Chester’s Dynamical Systems Analysyyyyy7777777777777777y7is of the Laser Pointer and the Red Dot on the Wall: Correlation, Causation, or SARS-Cov-2 Hallucination?”, Armstrong & Chester 2021`{=html} {#armstrong-chester-2021-section} **[`My cat Chester’s dynamical systems analysyyyyy7777777777777777y7is of the laser pointer and the red dot on the wall: correlation, causation, or SARS-Cov-2 hallucination?`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.17058 "'My cat Chester’s dynamical systems analysyyyyy7777777777777777y7is of the laser pointer and the red dot on the wall: correlation, causation, or SARS-Cov-2 hallucination?', Armstrong & Chester 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More”, Stephan et al 2021`{=html} {#stephan-et-al-2021-section} **[`Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2021-stephan.pdf "'Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More', Stephan et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective”, Everitt et al 2021`{=html} {#everitt-et-al-2021-section} **[`Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01685#deepmind "'Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective', Everitt et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="deepmind" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#4185f4"}** ## `“Quantifying Causality in Data Science With Quasi-Experiments”, Liu et al 2021`{=html} {#liu-et-al-2021-6-section} **[`Quantifying causality in data science with quasi-experiments`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2021-liu.pdf "'Quantifying causality in data science with quasi-experiments', Liu et al 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look”, Kirkegaard & Nyborg 2021`{=html} {#kirkegaard-nyborg-2021-section} **[`Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look`{=html}](/doc/iq/2021-kirkegaard.pdf "'Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look', Kirkegaard & Nyborg 2021"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, Greenland 2020`{=html} {#greenland-2020-section} **[`The causal foundations of applied probability and statistics`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.02677 "'The causal foundations of applied probability and statistics', Greenland 2020"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Collider Bias in Economic History Research”, Schneider 2020b`{=html} {#schneider-2020b-section} **[`Collider bias in economic history research`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2020-schneider-2.pdf "'Collider bias in economic history research', Schneider 2020b"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Objecting to Experiments Even While Approving of the Policies or Treatments They Compare”, Heck et al 2020`{=html} {#heck-et-al-2020-section} **[`Objecting to experiments even while approving of the policies or treatments they compare`{=html}](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2009030117 "'Objecting to experiments even while approving of the policies or treatments they compare', Heck et al 2020"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="PNAS" link-icon-type="text,quad" link-icon-color="#1f75b9"}** ## `“Commentary: Cynical Epidemiology”, Kaufman 2020`{=html} {#kaufman-2020-section} **[`Commentary: Cynical epidemiology`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2020-kaufman.pdf "'Commentary: Cynical epidemiology', Kaufman 2020"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Generative Adversarial Phonology: Modeling Unsupervised Phonetic and Phonological Learning With Neural Networks”, Beguš 2020`{=html} {#begus-2020-1-section} **[`Generative Adversarial Phonology: Modeling unsupervised phonetic and phonological learning with neural networks`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03965 "'Generative Adversarial Phonology: Modeling unsupervised phonetic and phonological learning with neural networks', Beguš 2020"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Rethinking Causation for Data-Intensive Biology: Constraints, Cancellations, and Quantized Organisms: Causality in Complex Organisms Is Sculpted by Constraints rather than Instigators, With Outcomes Perhaps Better Described by Quantized Patterns Than Rectilinear Pathways”, Brash 2020`{=html} {#brash-2020-section} **[`Rethinking Causation for Data-intensive Biology: Constraints, Cancellations, and Quantized Organisms: Causality in complex organisms is sculpted by constraints rather than instigators, with outcomes perhaps better described by quantized patterns than rectilinear pathways`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2020-brash.pdf "'Rethinking Causation for Data-intensive Biology: Constraints, Cancellations, and Quantized Organisms: Causality in complex organisms is sculpted by constraints rather than instigators, with outcomes perhaps better described by quantized patterns than rectilinear pathways', Brash 2020"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Health Recommendations and Selection in Health Behaviors”, Oster 2020`{=html} {#oster-2020-section} **[`Health Recommendations and Selection in Health Behaviors`{=html}](/doc/sociology/2020-oster.pdf "'Health Recommendations and Selection in Health Behaviors', Oster 2020"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Hyakujo’s Fox”, King 2020`{=html} {#king-2020-section} **[`Hyakujo’s Fox`{=html}](https://www.bartaking.com/zen-zomics/hyakujos-fox/ "'Hyakujo’s Fox', King 2020"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Bayesian Evolving-To-Extinction”, Demski 2020`{=html} {#demski-2020-section} **[`Bayesian Evolving-to-Extinction`{=html}](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HeYtBkNbEe7wpjc6X/p/u9Azdu6Z7zFAhd4rK "'Bayesian Evolving-to-Extinction', Demski 2020"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="LW" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#7faf83"}** ## `“Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth”, Saylors & Trafimow 2020`{=html} {#saylors-trafimow-2020-section} **[`Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2020-saylors.pdf "'Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth', Saylors & Trafimow 2020"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Designing Agent Incentives to Avoid Reward Tampering”, Everitt et al 2019`{=html} {#everitt-et-al-2019-1-section} **[`Designing agent incentives to avoid reward tampering`{=html}](https://deepmindsafetyresearch.medium.com/designing-agent-incentives-to-avoid-reward-tampering-4380c1bb6cd "'Designing agent incentives to avoid reward tampering', Everitt et al 2019"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="deepmind" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#4185f4"}** ## `“Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective”, Everitt et al 2019`{=html} {#everitt-et-al-2019-2-section} **[`Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.04734#deepmind "'Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective', Everitt et al 2019"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="deepmind" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#4185f4"}** ## `“More Confounders [Sleep Disorders and Correlation With Everything]”, Alexander 2019`{=html} {#alexander-2019-section} **[`More Confounders [sleep disorders and correlation with everything]`{=html}](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/24/you-need-more-confounders/ "'More Confounders [sleep disorders and correlation with everything]', Alexander 2019"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="SSC" link-icon-type="text,tri" link-icon-color="#5175c2"}** ## `“A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook”, Gordon et al 2019`{=html} {#gordon-et-al-2019-2-section} **[`A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2019-gordon.pdf "'A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook', Gordon et al 2019"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Correlation = Causation? Music Training, Psychology, and Neuroscience”, Schellenberg 2019`{=html} {#schellenberg-2019-section} **[`Correlation = causation? Music training, psychology, and neuroscience`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2019-schellenberg.pdf "'Correlation = causation? Music training, psychology, and neuroscience', Schellenberg 2019"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Effect of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health and Economic Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial”, Song & Baicker 2019`{=html} {#song-baicker-2019-section} **[`Effect of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health and Economic Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2019-song.pdf "'Effect of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health and Economic Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial', Song & Baicker 2019"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Why Scatter Plots Suggest Causality, and What We Can Do about It”, Bergstrom & West 2018`{=html} {#bergstrom-west-2018-section} **[`Why scatter plots suggest causality, and what we can do about it`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.09328 "'Why scatter plots suggest causality, and what we can do about it', Bergstrom & West 2018"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Using Genetic Data to Strengthen Causal Inference in Observational Research”, Pingault et al 2018`{=html} {#pingault-et-al-2018-section} **[`Using genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research`{=html}](/doc/genetics/heritable/correlation/mendelian-randomization/2018-pingault.pdf "'Using genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research', Pingault et al 2018"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Causal Language and Strength of Inference in Academic and Media Articles Shared in Social Media (CLAIMS): A Systematic Review”, Haber et al 2018`{=html} {#haber-et-al-2018-section} **[`Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review`{=html}](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0196346 "'Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review', Haber et al 2018"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="plos" link-icon-type="svg"}** ## `“Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio”, Huang et al 2018`{=html} {#huang-et-al-2018-1-section} **[`Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio`{=html}](https://davidreiley.com/papers/PandoraListenerDemandCurve.pdf "'Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio', Huang et al 2018"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A Combined Analysis of Genetically Correlated Traits Identifies 187 Loci and a Role for Neurogenesis and Myelination in Intelligence”, Hill et al 2018`{=html} {#hill-et-al-2018-1-section} **[`A combined analysis of genetically correlated traits identifies 187 loci and a role for neurogenesis and myelination in intelligence`{=html}](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-017-0001-5 "'A combined analysis of genetically correlated traits identifies 187 loci and a role for neurogenesis and myelination in intelligence', Hill et al 2018"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="n" link-icon-type="text"}** ## `“Polygenic Prediction of the Phenome, across Ancestry, in Emerging Adulthood”, Docherty et al 2017`{=html} {#docherty-et-al-2017-section} **[`Polygenic prediction of the phenome, across ancestry, in emerging adulthood`{=html}](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5971142/ "'Polygenic prediction of the phenome, across ancestry, in emerging adulthood', Docherty et al 2017"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Stable Angina (ORBITA): a Double-Blind, Randomized Controlled Trial”, Al-Lamee et al 2017`{=html} {#al-lamee-et-al-2017-section} **[`Percutaneous coronary intervention in stable angina (ORBITA): a double-blind, randomized controlled trial`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2017-allamee.pdf "'Percutaneous coronary intervention in stable angina (ORBITA): a double-blind, randomized controlled trial', Al-Lamee et al 2017"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Implicit Causal Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies”, Tran & Blei 2017`{=html} {#tran-blei-2017-section} **[`Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.10742 "'Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies', Tran & Blei 2017"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Benzodiazepines and Risk of All Cause Mortality in Adults: Cohort Study”`{=html} {#_W-eNMV8n-section} **[`Benzodiazepines and risk of all cause mortality in adults: cohort study`{=html}](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5499256/ "Benzodiazepines and risk of all cause mortality in adults: cohort study"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Bias and High-Dimensional Adjustment in Observational Studies of Peer Effects”, Eckles & Bakshy 2017`{=html} {#eckles-bakshy-2017-section} **[`Bias and high-dimensional adjustment in observational studies of peer effects`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.04692 "'Bias and high-dimensional adjustment in observational studies of peer effects', Eckles & Bakshy 2017"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“The Surprising Implications of Familial Association in Disease Risk”, Valberg et al 2017`{=html} {#valberg-et-al-2017-section} **[`The surprising implications of familial association in disease risk`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.00014 "'The surprising implications of familial association in disease risk', Valberg et al 2017"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“An Evaluation of Bias in 3 Measures of Teacher Quality: Value-Added, Classroom Observations, and Student Surveys”, Bacher-Hicks et al 2017`{=html} {#bacher-hicks-et-al-2017-section} **[`An Evaluation of Bias in 3 Measures of Teacher Quality: Value-Added, Classroom Observations, and Student Surveys`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2017-bacherhicks.pdf "'An Evaluation of Bias in 3 Measures of Teacher Quality: Value-Added, Classroom Observations, and Student Surveys', Bacher-Hicks et al 2017"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Graphical Models for Quasi-Experimental Designs”, Steiner et al 2017`{=html} {#steiner-et-al-2017-section} **[`Graphical Models for Quasi-experimental Designs`{=html}](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6117124/ "'Graphical Models for Quasi-experimental Designs', Steiner et al 2017"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?”, Jonas & Kording 2016`{=html} {#jonas-kording-2016-section} **[`Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?`{=html}](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/055624.full "'Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?', Jonas & Kording 2016"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="chi-dna" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#bd2736"}** ## `“Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—Results of a Global Index Benchmark”, Dill & Gebhart 2016`{=html} {#dill-gebhart-2016-section} **[`Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—results of a Global Index Benchmark`{=html}](https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74268/1/MPRA_paper_74268.pdf "'Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—results of a Global Index Benchmark', Dill & Gebhart 2016"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Coz: Finding Parallel Code That Counts With Causal Profiling”, Curtsinger & Berger 2016`{=html} {#curtsinger-berger-2016-section} **[`Coz: Finding Parallel Code that Counts with Causal Profiling`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.03676 "'Coz: Finding Parallel Code that Counts with Causal Profiling', Curtsinger & Berger 2016"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“Agreement of Treatment Effects for Mortality from Routinely Collected Data and Subsequent Randomized Trials: Meta-Epidemiological Survey”, Hemkens et al 2016`{=html} {#hemkens-et-al-2016-section} **[`Agreement of treatment effects for mortality from routinely collected data and subsequent randomized trials: meta-epidemiological survey`{=html}](https://www.bmj.com/content/352/bmj.i493 "'Agreement of treatment effects for mortality from routinely collected data and subsequent randomized trials: meta-epidemiological survey', Hemkens et al 2016"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="bmj" link-icon-type="text,tri,sans" link-icon-color="#2a6ebb"}** ## `“Shared Genetic Aetiology between Cognitive Functions and Physical and Mental Health in UK Biobank (n = 112,151) and 24 GWAS Consortia”, Hagenaars et al 2016`{=html} {#hagenaars-et-al-2016-1-section} **[`Shared genetic aetiology between cognitive functions and physical and mental health in UK Biobank (n = 112,151) and 24 GWAS consortia`{=html}](https://www.nature.com/articles/mp2015225 "'Shared genetic aetiology between cognitive functions and physical and mental health in UK Biobank (n = 112,151) and 24 GWAS consortia', Hagenaars et al 2016"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="n" link-icon-type="text"}** ## `“Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time”, Jones & Klenow 2016`{=html} {#jones-klenow-2016-section} **[`Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time`{=html}](http://klenow.com/Jones_Klenow.pdf "'Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time', Jones & Klenow 2016"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A Test of Exogeneity Without Instrumental Variables in Models With Bunching”, Caetano 2015`{=html} {#caetano-2015-section} **[`A Test of Exogeneity Without Instrumental Variables in Models With Bunching`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2015-caetano.pdf "'A Test of Exogeneity Without Instrumental Variables in Models With Bunching', Caetano 2015"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao 2015`{=html} {#lewis-rao-2015-section} **[`The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising`{=html}](/doc/economics/advertising/2015-lewis.pdf "'The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising', Lewis & Rao 2015"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Mendelian Randomization With Invalid Instruments: Effect Estimation and Bias Detection through Egger Regression (MR-Egger)”, Bowden et al 2015`{=html} {#bowden-et-al-2015-section} **[`Mendelian Randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression (MR-Egger)`{=html}](https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/44/2/512/754653 "'Mendelian Randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression (MR-Egger)', Bowden et al 2015"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="OUP" link-icon-type="text,tri" link-icon-color="#011d3f"}** ## `“Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions”, Krauth 2015`{=html} {#krauth-2015-section} **[`Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2015-krauth.pdf "'Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions', Krauth 2015"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“When Causation Does Not Imply Correlation: Robust Violations of the Faithfulness Axiom”, Kennaway 2015`{=html} {#kennaway-2015-section} **[`When causation does not imply correlation: robust violations of the Faithfulness axiom`{=html}](https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.03118 "'When causation does not imply correlation: robust violations of the Faithfulness axiom', Kennaway 2015"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="𝛘" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#b31b1b"}** ## `“When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52”, Shen et al 2014`{=html} {#shen-et-al-2014-link-section} **[`When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52`{=html}](/doc/psychology/2014-shen.pdf "'When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52', Shen et al 2014"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Mystery Machine: End-To-End Performance Analysis of Large-Scale Internet Services”, Chow et al 2014 (page 2)`{=html} {#chow-et-al-2014-page-2-section} **[`The Mystery Machine: End-to-end performance analysis of large-scale Internet services`{=html}](https://www.usenix.org/system/files/conference/osdi14/osdi14-paper-chow.pdf#page=2 "'The Mystery Machine: End-to-end performance analysis of large-scale Internet services', Chow et al 2014 (page 2)"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Alcohol Exposure In Utero and Child Academic Achievement”, Scholder et al 2014`{=html} {#scholder-et-al-2014-section} **[`Alcohol Exposure In Utero and Child Academic Achievement`{=html}](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecoj.12144 "'Alcohol Exposure In Utero and Child Academic Achievement', Scholder et al 2014"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="W" link-icon-type="text,sans"}** ## `“Converting Rejections into Positive Stimuli”, Rubin 2014`{=html} {#rubin-2014-section} **[`Converting rejections into positive stimuli`{=html}](/doc/psychology/writing/2014-rubin.pdf "'Converting rejections into positive stimuli', Rubin 2014"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Observational Studies Often Make Clinical Practice Recommendations: an Empirical Evaluation of Authors' Attitudes”, Prasad et al 2013`{=html} {#prasad-et-al-2013-section} **[`Observational studies often make clinical practice recommendations: an empirical evaluation of authors' attitudes`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2013-prasad.pdf "'Observational studies often make clinical practice recommendations: an empirical evaluation of authors' attitudes', Prasad et al 2013"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices”, Prasad 2013`{=html} {#prasad-2013-section} **[`A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices`{=html}](https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196%2813%2900405-9/fulltext "'A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices', Prasad 2013"){.id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules”, Rossi 2012`{=html} {#rossi-2012-section} **[`The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules`{=html}](/doc/sociology/1987-rossi "'The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules', Rossi 2012"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Correlation and Causation in the Study of Personality”, Lee 2012`{=html} {#lee-2012-section} **[`Correlation and Causation in the Study of Personality`{=html}](/doc/genetics/heritable/2012-lee.pdf "'Correlation and Causation in the Study of Personality', Lee 2012"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, Lewis & Reiley 2011`{=html} {#lewis-reiley-2011-section} **[`Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo`{=html}](https://www.uea.ac.uk/documents/107435/107587/ccp_11_9.pdf "'Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo', Lewis & Reiley 2011"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“High-Dimensional Propensity Score Adjustment in Studies of Treatment Effects Using Health Care Claims Data”`{=html} {#_MUHOKB0b-section} **[`High-dimensional propensity score adjustment in studies of treatment effects using health care claims data`{=html}](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3077219/ "High-dimensional propensity score adjustment in studies of treatment effects using health care claims data"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Lewis et al 2011`{=html} {#lewis-et-al-2011-section} **[`Here, there, and everywhere: correlated online behaviors can lead to overestimates of the effects of advertising`{=html}](/doc/economics/advertising/2011-lewis.pdf "'Here, there, and everywhere: correlated online behaviors can lead to overestimates of the effects of advertising', Lewis et al 2011"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Possibility of Unmeasured Confounding Variables in Observational Studies: a Forgotten Fact?”, Byrd & Ho 2011`{=html} {#byrd-ho-2011-section} **[`The possibility of unmeasured confounding variables in observational studies: a forgotten fact?`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2011-byrd.pdf "'The possibility of unmeasured confounding variables in observational studies: a forgotten fact?', Byrd & Ho 2011"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Deming, Data and Observational Studies”`{=html} {#_vvd5NtQH-section} **[`Deming, data and observational studies`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2011-young.pdf "Deming, data and observational studies"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Overestimation of the Effects of Adherence on Outcomes: a Case Study in Healthy User Bias and Hypertension”, LaFleur et al 2011`{=html} {#lafleur-et-al-2011-section} **[`Overestimation of the effects of adherence on outcomes: a case study in healthy user bias and hypertension`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2011-lafleur.pdf "'Overestimation of the effects of adherence on outcomes: a case study in healthy user bias and hypertension', LaFleur et al 2011"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Negative Controls: A Tool for Detecting Confounding and Bias in Observational Studies”, Lipsitch et al 2010`{=html} {#lipsitch-et-al-2010-section} **[`Negative Controls: A Tool for Detecting Confounding and Bias in Observational Studies`{=html}](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3053408/ "'Negative Controls: A Tool for Detecting Confounding and Bias in Observational Studies', Lipsitch et al 2010"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology”, Foster 2010`{=html} {#foster-2010-section} **[`Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2010-foster.pdf "'Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology', Foster 2010"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins”, McGue et al 2010`{=html} {#mcgue-et-al-2010-section} **[`Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins`{=html}](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3094752/ "'Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins', McGue et al 2010"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities”`{=html} {#_foM7IMQp-section} **[`Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2009-young.pdf "Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Field Experiments in Economics: The Past, the Present, and the Future”, Levitt & List 2009`{=html} {#levitt-list-2009-section} **[`Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future`{=html}](/doc/economics/2009-levitt.pdf "'Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future', Levitt & List 2009"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”, Ziliak 2008`{=html} {#ziliak-2008-section} **[`Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t`{=html}](/doc/statistics/decision/2008-ziliak.pdf "'Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t', Ziliak 2008"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare”, Knight 2008`{=html} {#knight-2008-section} **[`Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2008-knight.pdf "'Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare', Knight 2008"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Observational Research, Randomized Trials, and Two Views of Medical Science”, Vandenbroucke 2008`{=html} {#vandenbroucke-2008-section} **[`Observational Research, Randomized Trials, and Two Views of Medical Science`{=html}](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2265762/ "'Observational Research, Randomized Trials, and Two Views of Medical Science', Vandenbroucke 2008"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Clustered Environments and Randomized Genes: A Fundamental Distinction between Conventional and Genetic Epidemiology”, Smith et al 2007`{=html} {#smith-et-al-2007-link-section} **[`Clustered Environments and Randomized Genes: A Fundamental Distinction between Conventional and Genetic Epidemiology`{=html}](https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0040352 "'Clustered Environments and Randomized Genes: A Fundamental Distinction between Conventional and Genetic Epidemiology', Smith et al 2007"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="plos" link-icon-type="svg"}** ## `“Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception”, Körding et al 2007`{=html} {#körding-et-al-2007-section} **[`Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception`{=html}](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0000943 "'Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception', Körding et al 2007"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="plos" link-icon-type="svg"}** ## `“How Close Is Close Enough? Evaluating Propensity Score Matching Using Data from a Class Size Reduction Experiment”, Wilde & Hollister 2007`{=html} {#wilde-hollister-2007-section} **[`How close is close enough? Evaluating propensity score matching using data from a class size reduction experiment`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2007-wilde.pdf "'How close is close enough? Evaluating propensity score matching using data from a class size reduction experiment', Wilde & Hollister 2007"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments”, Rutter 2007`{=html} {#rutter-2007-section} **[`Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2007-rutter.pdf "'Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments', Rutter 2007"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Personality and the Prediction of Consequential Outcomes”, Ozer & Benet-Martínez 2006`{=html} {#ozer-benet-martínez-2006-section} **[`Personality and the Prediction of Consequential Outcomes`{=html}](/doc/psychology/personality/2006-ozer.pdf "'Personality and the Prediction of Consequential Outcomes', Ozer & Benet-Martínez 2006"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Comparison of Evidence on Harms of Medical Interventions in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Papanikolaou et al 2006`{=html} {#papanikolaou-et-al-2006-section} **[`Comparison of evidence on harms of medical interventions in randomized and nonrandomized studies`{=html}](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1389826/ "'Comparison of evidence on harms of medical interventions in randomized and nonrandomized studies', Papanikolaou et al 2006"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research”, Ioannidis 2005`{=html} {#ioannidis-2005-section} **[`Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research`{=html}](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/201218 "'Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research', Ioannidis 2005"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="JAMA" link-icon-type="text,sans,quad" link-icon-color="#d71635"}** ## `“Looking to the 21st Century: Have We Learned from Our Mistakes, or Are We Doomed to Compound Them?”, Shapiro 2004`{=html} {#shapiro-2004-section} **[`Looking to the 21st century: have we learned from our mistakes, or are we doomed to compound them?`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2004-shapiro.pdf "'Looking to the 21st century: have we learned from our mistakes, or are we doomed to compound them?', Shapiro 2004"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“New Evidence for the Theory of the Stork”, Höfer 2004`{=html} {#höfer-2004-section} **[`New evidence for the Theory of the Stork`{=html}](https://web.stanford.edu/class/hrp259/2007/regression/storke.pdf "'New evidence for the Theory of the Stork', Höfer 2004"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Observational versus Randomized Trial Evidence”, Lawlor 2004`{=html} {#lawlor-2004-section} **[`Observational versus randomized trial evidence`{=html}](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(04)16925-0/fulltext "'Observational versus randomized trial evidence', Lawlor 2004"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="L" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#004582"}** ## `“Testing Hypotheses about the Relationship between Cannabis Use and Psychosis”, Degenhardt et al 2003`{=html} {#degenhardt-et-al-2003-section} **[`Testing hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis`{=html}](/doc/genetics/heritable/correlation/2002-degenhardt.pdf "'Testing hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis', Degenhardt et al 2003"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“MDRC’s The Higher Education Randomized Controlled Trials Restricted Access File (THE-RCT RAF), United States, 2003–2019”, MDRC 2003`{=html} {#mdrc-2003-section} **[`MDRC’s The Higher Education Randomized Controlled Trials Restricted Access File (THE-RCT RAF), United States, 2003–2019`{=html}](https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/37932 "'MDRC’s The Higher Education Randomized Controlled Trials Restricted Access File (THE-RCT RAF), United States, 2003–2019', MDRC 2003"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Personal Reflections on Lessons Learned from Randomized Trials Involving Newborn Infants, 1951–1967”, Silverman 2003`{=html} {#silverman-2003-section} **[`Personal reflections on lessons learned from randomized trials involving newborn infants, 1951–1967`{=html}](https://www.jameslindlibrary.org/articles/personal-reflections-on-lessons-learned-from-randomized-trials-involving-newborn-infants-1951-to-1967/ "'Personal reflections on lessons learned from randomized trials involving newborn infants, 1951–1967', Silverman 2003"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review”, Glazerman et al 2002`{=html} {#glazerman-et-al-2002-section} **[`Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review`{=html}](https://www.mathematica.org/-/media/publications/pdfs/nonexperimentalreps.pdf "'Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review', Glazerman et al 2002"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“It Pays to Be Ignorant: A Simple Political Economy of Rigorous Program Evaluation”, Pritchett 2002`{=html} {#pritchett-2002-section} **[`It pays to be ignorant: A simple political economy of rigorous program evaluation`{=html}](/doc/sociology/2002-pritchett.pdf "'It pays to be ignorant: A simple political economy of rigorous program evaluation', Pritchett 2002"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Can Nonexperimental Comparison Group Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-To-Work Programs? MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology”, Bloom et al 2002`{=html} {#bloom-et-al-2002-section} **[`Can Nonexperimental Comparison Group Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs? MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology`{=html}](https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED471814.pdf "'Can Nonexperimental Comparison Group Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs? MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology', Bloom et al 2002"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Ioannidis et al 2001`{=html} {#ioannidis-et-al-2001-section} **[`Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2001-ioannidis.pdf "'Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies', Ioannidis et al 2001"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Crosstalk and Specificity in Signaling: Are We Crosstalking Ourselves into General Confusion?”, Dumont et al 2001`{=html} {#dumont-et-al-2001-section} **[`Crosstalk and specificity in signaling: Are we crosstalking ourselves into general confusion?`{=html}](/doc/biology/2001-dumont.pdf "'Crosstalk and specificity in signaling: Are we crosstalking ourselves into general confusion?', Dumont et al 2001"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)”, Matthews 2001`{=html} {#matthews-2001-section} **[`Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2000-matthews.pdf "'Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)', Matthews 2001"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Study Design and Estimates of Effectiveness”, MacLehose et al 2000`{=html} {#maclehose-et-al-2000-section} **[`Study design and estimates of effectiveness`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2000-maclehose.pdf "'Study design and estimates of effectiveness', MacLehose et al 2000"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs”, Dehejia & Wahba 1999`{=html} {#dehejia-wahba-1999-section} **[`Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1999-dehejia.pdf "'Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs', Dehejia & Wahba 1999"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Interpreting the Evidence: Choosing between Randomized and Non-Randomized Studies”, McKee et al 1999`{=html} {#mckee-et-al-1999-section} **[`Interpreting the evidence: choosing between randomized and non-randomized studies`{=html}](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1126943/ "'Interpreting the evidence: choosing between randomized and non-randomized studies', McKee et al 1999"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Superadditive Correlation”, Giraud et al 1999`{=html} {#giraud-et-al-1999-section} **[`Superadditive Correlation`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1999-giraud.pdf "'Superadditive Correlation', Giraud et al 1999"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Causality in Complex Systems”, Wagner 1999`{=html} {#wagner-1999-section} **[`Causality in Complex Systems`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1999-wagner.pdf "'Causality in Complex Systems', Wagner 1999"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Spurious Precision? Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies”, Egger et al 1998`{=html} {#egger-et-al-1998-section} **[`Spurious precision? Meta-analysis of observational studies`{=html}](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2665367/pdf/9462324.pdf "'Spurious precision? Meta-analysis of observational studies', Egger et al 1998"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“Choosing Between Randomized and Non-Randomized Studies”, Britton et al 1998`{=html} {#britton-et-al-1998-section} **[`Choosing Between Randomized and Non-randomized Studies`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1998-britton.pdf "'Choosing Between Randomized and Non-randomized Studies', Britton et al 1998"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine”, Altman 1998`{=html} {#altman-1998-section} **[`Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine`{=html}](/doc/nootropic/quantified-self/1998-altman.pdf "'Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine', Altman 1998"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Unpredictability Paradox: Review of Empirical Comparisons of Randomized and Non-Randomized Clinical Trials”, Kunz & Oxman 1998`{=html} {#kunz-oxman-1998-section} **[`The unpredictability paradox: review of empirical comparisons of randomized and non-randomized clinical trials`{=html}](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC28700/ "'The unpredictability paradox: review of empirical comparisons of randomized and non-randomized clinical trials', Kunz & Oxman 1998"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="nlm-ncbi" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#20558a"}** ## `“There Is a Time and a Place for Significance Testing”, Mulaik et al 1997`{=html} {#mulaik-et-al-1997-section} **[`There Is a Time and a Place for Significance Testing`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1997-muzaik.pdf "'There Is a Time and a Place for Significance Testing', Mulaik et al 1997"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods”, Friedlander & Robins 1995`{=html} {#friedlander-robins-1995-section} **[`Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1995-friedlander.pdf "'Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods', Friedlander & Robins 1995"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Inferring the Direction of Causation in Cross-Sectional Twin Data: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations”, Duffy & Martin 1994`{=html} {#duffy-martin-1994-section} **[`Inferring the direction of causation in cross-sectional twin data: Theoretical and empirical considerations`{=html}](/doc/genetics/heritable/correlation/1994-duffy.pdf "'Inferring the direction of causation in cross-sectional twin data: Theoretical and empirical considerations', Duffy & Martin 1994"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Testing Hypotheses about Direction of Causation Using Cross-Sectional Family Data”, Heath et al 1993`{=html} {#heath-et-al-1993-section} **[`Testing hypotheses about direction of causation using cross-sectional family data`{=html}](/doc/genetics/heritable/correlation/1993-heath.pdf "'Testing hypotheses about direction of causation using cross-sectional family data', Heath et al 1993"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Bias in Relative Odds Estimation owing to Imprecise Measurement of Correlated Exposures”, Phillips & Smith 1992`{=html} {#phillips-smith-1992-section} **[`Bias in relative odds estimation owing to imprecise measurement of correlated exposures`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1992-phillips.pdf "'Bias in relative odds estimation owing to imprecise measurement of correlated exposures', Phillips & Smith 1992"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Smoking As ‘Independent’ Risk Factor for Suicide: Illustration of an Artifact from Observational Epidemiology?”, Smith et al 1992`{=html} {#smith-et-al-1992-section} **[`Smoking as ‘independent’ risk factor for suicide: illustration of an artifact from observational epidemiology?`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1992-smith.pdf "'Smoking as ‘independent’ risk factor for suicide: illustration of an artifact from observational epidemiology?', Smith et al 1992"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Force Concept Inventory”`{=html} {#_4ir1iUyO-section} **[`Force concept inventory`{=html}](/doc/science/physics/1992-hestenes.pdf "Force concept inventory"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“How Independent Are ‘Independent’ Effects? Relative Risk Estimation When Correlated Exposures Are Measured Imprecisely”, Phillips & Smith 1991`{=html} {#phillips-smith-1991-section} **[`How independent are ‘independent’ effects? Relative risk estimation when correlated exposures are measured imprecisely`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1991-phillips.pdf "'How independent are ‘independent’ effects? Relative risk estimation when correlated exposures are measured imprecisely', Phillips & Smith 1991"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Developing Improved Observational Methods for Evaluating Therapeutic Effectiveness”, Horwitz et al 1990`{=html} {#horwitz-et-al-1990-section} **[`Developing improved observational methods for evaluating therapeutic effectiveness`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1990-horwitz.pdf "'Developing improved observational methods for evaluating therapeutic effectiveness', Horwitz et al 1990"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Coaching for the Scholastic Aptitude Test: Further Synthesis and Appraisal”, Becker 1990`{=html} {#becker-1990-section} **[`Coaching for the Scholastic Aptitude Test: Further Synthesis and Appraisal`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1990-becker.pdf "'Coaching for the Scholastic Aptitude Test: Further Synthesis and Appraisal', Becker 1990"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Memories of the British Streptomycin Trial in Tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial”, Hill 1990`{=html} {#hill-1990-section} **[`Memories of the British streptomycin trial in tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1990-hill.pdf "'Memories of the British streptomycin trial in tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial', Hill 1990"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A Collection of 56 Topics With Contradictory Results in Case-Control Research”, Mayes et al 1988`{=html} {#mayes-et-al-1988-section} **[`A Collection of 56 Topics with Contradictory Results in Case-Control Research`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1988-mayes.pdf "'A Collection of 56 Topics with Contradictory Results in Case-Control Research', Mayes et al 1988"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Evaluating the Effectiveness of Family Therapies: an Integrative Review and Analysis”, Hazelrigg et al 1987`{=html} {#hazelrigg-et-al-1987-section} **[`Evaluating the effectiveness of family therapies: an integrative review and analysis`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1987-hazelrigg.pdf "'Evaluating the effectiveness of family therapies: an integrative review and analysis', Hazelrigg et al 1987"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs”, Fraker & Maynard 1987`{=html} {#fraker-maynard-1987-section} **[`The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1987-fraker.pdf "'The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs', Fraker & Maynard 1987"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs With Experimental Data”, LaLonde 1986`{=html} {#lalonde-1986-section} **[`Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data`{=html}](/doc/economics/1986-lalonde.pdf "'Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data', LaLonde 1986"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Why Do We Need Some Large, Simple Randomized Trials?”, Yusuf et al 1984`{=html} {#yusuf-et-al-1984-section} **[`Why do we need some large, simple randomized trials?`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1984-yusuf.pdf "'Why do we need some large, simple randomized trials?', Yusuf et al 1984"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A Random Effects Model for Effect Sizes”, Hedges 1983`{=html} {#hedges-1983-section} **[`A Random Effects Model for Effect Sizes`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1983-hedges.pdf "'A Random Effects Model for Effect Sizes', Hedges 1983"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Comparative Therapy Outcome Research: Methodological Implications of Meta-Analysis”, Shapiro & Shapiro 1983`{=html} {#shapiro-shapiro-1983-section} **[`Comparative therapy outcome research: Methodological implications of meta-analysis`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1983-shapiro.pdf "'Comparative therapy outcome research: Methodological implications of meta-analysis', Shapiro & Shapiro 1983"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Essence of Statistics (Second Edition)”, Loftus & Loftus 1982`{=html} {#loftus-loftus-1982-section} **[`Essence of Statistics (Second Edition)`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1982-loftus-essenceofstatistics.pdf "'Essence of Statistics (Second Edition)', Loftus & Loftus 1982"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Paradoxes of Time Travel”, Lewis 1976`{=html} {#lewis-1976-section} **[`The Paradoxes of Time Travel`{=html}](/doc/fiction/science-fiction/time-travel/1976-lewis.pdf "'The Paradoxes of Time Travel', Lewis 1976"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins, Loehlin & Nichols 1976`{=html} {#loehlin-nichols-1976-link-section} **[`Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins`{=html}](/doc/genetics/heritable/1976-loehlin-heredityenvironmentandpersonality.pdf "'Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins', Loehlin & Nichols 1976"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“On the Alleged Falsity of the Null Hypothesis”, Oakes 1975`{=html} {#oakes-1975-section} **[`On the alleged falsity of the null hypothesis`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1975-oakes.pdf "'On the alleged falsity of the null hypothesis', Oakes 1975"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Theory Confirmation in Psychology”, Swoyer & Monson 1975`{=html} {#swoyer-monson-1975-section} **[`Theory Confirmation in Psychology`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1975-swoyer.pdf "'Theory Confirmation in Psychology', Swoyer & Monson 1975"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses”, Keuth 1973`{=html} {#keuth-1973-section} **[`On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1973-keuth.pdf "'On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses', Keuth 1973"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Correlation between Targets and Instruments”, Peston 1972`{=html} {#peston-1972-section} **[`The Correlation between Targets and Instruments`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1972-peston.pdf "'The Correlation between Targets and Instruments', Peston 1972"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region”, Tobler 1970`{=html} {#tobler-1970-section} **[`A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region`{=html}](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/eaa5/eefedd4fa34b7de7448c0c8e0822e9fdf956.pdf "'A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region', Tobler 1970"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Use and Abuse of Regression”, Box 1966`{=html} {#box-1966-section} **[`Use and Abuse of Regression`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1966-box.pdf "'Use and Abuse of Regression', Box 1966"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series”, Ames & Reiter 1961`{=html} {#ames-reiter-1961-section} **[`Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series`{=html}](/doc/economics/1961-ames.pdf "'Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series', Ames & Reiter 1961"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test”, Rozeboom 1960`{=html} {#rozeboom-1960-section} **[`The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test`{=html}](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b596/4787fc1abf739148d604abfbd2689e73e52f.pdf "'The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test', Rozeboom 1960"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Cigarettes, Cancer, And Statistics”, Fisher 1958`{=html} {#fisher-1958-section} **[`Cigarettes, Cancer, And Statistics`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1958-fisher.pdf "'Cigarettes, Cancer, And Statistics', Fisher 1958"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“The Influence of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers’ on the Development of the Science of Statistics”, Yates 1951`{=html} {#yates-1951-section} **[`The Influence of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers’ on the Development of the Science of Statistics`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1951-yates.pdf "'The Influence of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers’ on the Development of the Science of Statistics', Yates 1951"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“‘Superstition’ in the Pigeon”, Skinner 1948`{=html} {#skinner-1948-section} **[`‘Superstition’ in the Pigeon`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1948-skinner.pdf "'‘Superstition’ in the Pigeon', Skinner 1948"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“A New Measure of Introversion-Extroversion”, Evans & McConnell 1941`{=html} {#evans-mcconnell-1941-section} **[`A New Measure of Introversion-Extroversion`{=html}](/doc/psychology/personality/1941-evans.pdf "'A New Measure of Introversion-Extroversion', Evans & McConnell 1941"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“"Student" As Statistician”, Pearson 1939`{=html} {#pearson-1939-section} **[`"Student" as Statistician`{=html}](/doc/statistics/decision/1939-pearson.pdf "'"Student" as Statistician', Pearson 1939"){.link-annotated .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?--A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series”`{=html} {#_6suuAOdV-section} **[`Why do we Sometimes get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?--A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/1926-yule.pdf "Why do we Sometimes get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?--A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Behavior Genetic Frameworks of Causal Reasoning for Personality Psychology”`{=html} {#_tyd_156y-section} **[`Behavior Genetic Frameworks of Causal Reasoning for Personality Psychology`{=html}](https://core.ac.uk/reader/160114160 "Behavior Genetic Frameworks of Causal Reasoning for Personality Psychology"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“The Initial Knowledge State of College Physics Students”`{=html} {#_ITjRLWEF-section} **[`The initial knowledge state of college physics students`{=html}](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e8ab/66bb321d467e38931cd3685d241b908c752a.pdf "The initial knowledge state of college physics students"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** ## `“Inventing the Randomized Double-Blind Trial: The Nürnberg Salt Test of 1835”`{=html} {#_iL9maooo-section} **[`Inventing the randomized double-blind trial: The Nürnberg salt test of 1835`{=html}](https://www.jameslindlibrary.org/articles/inventing-the-randomized-double-blind-trial-the-nurnberg-salt-test-of-1835/ "Inventing the randomized double-blind trial: The Nürnberg salt test of 1835"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation}** ## `“Intellectual Hipsters and Meta-Contrarianism”`{=html} {#_fTxatFxT-section} **[`Intellectual Hipsters and Meta-Contrarianism`{=html}](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kcTNWopvXFncXgPy/intellectual-hipsters-and-meta-contrarianism "Intellectual Hipsters and Meta-Contrarianism"){.id-not .include-annotation link-icon="LW" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#7faf83"}** ::: aux-links-transclude-file ::: collapse **View External Link**: [`https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kcTNWopvXFncXgPy/intellectual-hipsters-and-meta-contrarianism`](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kcTNWopvXFncXgPy/intellectual-hipsters-and-meta-contrarianism){.id-not .link-annotated-not .include-content .include-lazy link-icon="LW" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#7faf83"} ::: ::: ## `“A Simple Rule for Causation”`{=html} {#_vXPW3e9N-section} **[`A simple rule for causation`{=html}](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTasQyRBzz6FTB4BL/a-simple-rule-for-causation "A simple rule for causation"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="LW" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#7faf83"}** ## `“Guessing the Teacher’s Password”`{=html} {#_vwn36pII-section} **[`Guessing the Teacher’s Password`{=html}](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NMoLJuDJEms7Ku9XS/guessing-the-teacher-s-password "Guessing the Teacher’s Password"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="LW" link-icon-type="text" link-icon-color="#7faf83"}** ## `NoahHaber`{=html} {#_Al7WHnai-section} **[`Causal language study is now up on MedRxiv! https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262631 Ever wondered what words are commonly used to link exposures and outcomes in health/med/epi studies? How strongly language implies causality? How strongly studies hint at causality in other ways? READ ON!…When reviewers extracted and rated the causal implication of the linking sentences/phrases, we found that the vast majority of sentences in context implied causality at least weakly (meaning lots of room for doubt), but little strongly…About 1⁄3 of abstracts contained action recommendations (‘more research’ doesn’t count here). Of those that did, the action recommendations tended to, again, imply causality moderately or strongly (strongly meaning no room for doubt).`{=html}](https://x.com/NoahHaber/status/1432380268007108617 "'Causal language study is now up on MedRxiv! https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262631 Ever wondered what words are commonly used to link exposures and outcomes in health/med/epi studies? How strongly language implies causality? How strongly studies hint at causality in other ways? READ ON!…When reviewers extracted and rated the causal implication of the linking sentences/phrases, we found that the vast majority of sentences in context implied causality at least weakly (meaning lots of room for doubt), but little strongly…About 1⁄3 of abstracts contained action recommendations (‘more research’ doesn’t count here). Of those that did, the action recommendations tended to, again, imply causality moderately or strongly (strongly meaning no room for doubt).', NoahHaber 2026"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="twitter" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#1da1f2"}** ## `“Confounding Variables”, Munroe 2026`{=html} {#_dtH33dlm-section} **[`Confounding Variables`{=html}](https://xkcd.com/2560/ "'Confounding Variables', Munroe 2026"){.id-not .include-annotation link-icon="XKCD" link-icon-type="text,quad,sans"}** ::: aux-links-transclude-file ::: collapse **View External Link**: [`https://xkcd.com/2560/`](https://xkcd.com/2560/){.id-not .link-annotated-not .include-content .include-lazy link-icon="XKCD" link-icon-type="text,quad,sans"} ::: ::: ## `“Correlation”, Munroe 2026`{=html} {#_x-3dDstv-section} **[`Correlation`{=html}](https://xkcd.com/552/ "'Correlation', Munroe 2026"){.id-not .include-annotation link-icon="XKCD" link-icon-type="text,quad,sans"}** ::: aux-links-transclude-file ::: collapse **View External Link**: [`https://xkcd.com/552/`](https://xkcd.com/552/){.id-not .link-annotated-not .include-content .include-lazy link-icon="XKCD" link-icon-type="text,quad,sans"} ::: ::: ## Sort By Magic ::: {demo-type="sort-by-magic-preface"} Annotations sorted by machine learning into [inferred \'tags\'](/design#future-tag-features){#gwern-design--future-tag-features .link-annotated-partial}. This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by *date* order, one can browse in *topic* order. The \'sorted\' list has been automatically clustered into multiple sections & auto-labeled for easier browsing. Beginning with the newest annotation, it uses the embedding of each annotation to attempt to create a list of nearest-neighbor annotations, creating a progression of topics. For more details, see the link. ::: ### `dynamics-system` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#armstrong-chester-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ### `transformative-experience` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#rubin-2014-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lewis-1976-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ### `estimand attribution policy-analysis evidence-based policy-impact` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#koch-et-al-2022-2-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lundberg-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ### `clinical-efficacy` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#scholder-et-al-2014-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#knight-2008-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#blom-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#al-lamee-et-al-2017-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ### `personality-assessment` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#ozer-benet-martínez-2006-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#evans-mcconnell-1941-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#loehlin-nichols-1976-link-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ### `economic-index` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#ames-reiter-1961-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#jones-klenow-2016-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#dill-gebhart-2016-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ### `causal-perception` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#research-2023-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#huang-et-al-2018-1-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#körding-et-al-2007-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#skinner-1948-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#matthews-2001-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ### `causal-evaluation` {.collapse title="Machine-generated tag name for the following cluster of links."} [\[see previous entry\]](#pearson-1939-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#ziliak-2008-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#rozeboom-1960-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#ferguson-heene-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#tosh-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#milkman-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lalonde-1986-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#fraker-maynard-1987-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#bloom-et-al-2002-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#dehejia-wahba-1999-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#wilde-hollister-2007-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#glazerman-et-al-2002-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#liu-et-al-2021-6-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#steiner-et-al-2017-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#fong-grimmer-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#gordon-et-al-2019-2-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lewis-rao-2015-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lewis-reiley-2011-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lewis-et-al-2011-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#eckles-bakshy-2017-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#bailey-et-al-2024-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#haber-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#haber-et-al-2018-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#ioannidis-2005-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#ioannidis-et-al-2001-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#papanikolaou-et-al-2006-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#hemkens-et-al-2016-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#kunz-oxman-1998-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#mckee-et-al-1999-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#horwitz-et-al-1990-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#egger-et-al-1998-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#smith-et-al-2007-link-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#bowden-et-al-2015-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#pingault-et-al-2018-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#dattani-et-al-2022-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#sjölander-et-al-2022-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#sjölander-et-al-2022-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#valberg-et-al-2017-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#docherty-et-al-2017-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#hagenaars-et-al-2016-1-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#hill-et-al-2018-1-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lee-morris-2025b-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lee-2012-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#duffy-martin-1994-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#heath-et-al-1993-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#mcgue-et-al-2010-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#rutter-2007-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#wagner-1999-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#brash-2020-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#greenland-2020-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#saylors-trafimow-2020-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#stephan-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#daniels-kupor-2022-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#bergstrom-west-2018-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#schneider-2020b-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#krauth-2015-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#carolina-et-al-2023-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#caetano-2015-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#clement-2024-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#matthay-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lafleur-et-al-2011-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#wallace-et-al-2022-2-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#oster-2020-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#rossi-2012-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#pritchett-2002-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#levitt-list-2009-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#heck-et-al-2020-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#vandenbroucke-2008-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#mayes-et-al-1988-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#lipsitch-et-al-2010-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#ballin-et-al-2025-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#stadelmaier-et-al-2025-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#ihekweazu-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#dumont-et-al-2001-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#comolatti-hoel-2022-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#hoel-2025-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#kıcıman-et-al-2023-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#willig-et-al-2022-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#chen-et-al-2023-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#vafa-et-al-2024-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#richens-everitt-2024-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#kosoy-et-al-2022-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#everitt-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#everitt-et-al-2019-2-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#everitt-et-al-2019-1-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#geiger-et-al-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#nichani-et-al-2024-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#mueller-2024-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#kennaway-2015-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#hedges-1983-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#shapiro-shapiro-1983-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#hazelrigg-et-al-1987-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#becker-1990-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#bacher-hicks-et-al-2017-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#shen-et-al-2014-link-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#kirkegaard-nyborg-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#protzko-colom-2021-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#jonas-kording-2016-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#manning-et-al-2024-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#begus-2020-1-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#tran-blei-2017-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#curtsinger-berger-2016-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} [\[see previous entry\]](#chow-et-al-2014-page-2-section){.include .include-even-when-collapsed} ## Wikipedia (7) {#titled-links-wikipedia .collapse} 1. **[`Event study`{=html}](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Event_study "Event study"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="wikipedia" link-icon-type="svg"}** 2. **[`Idappaccayatā`{=html}](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idappaccayat%C4%81 "Idappaccayatā"){.id-not .include-annotation link-icon="wikipedia" link-icon-type="svg"}** ::: aux-links-transclude-file [`https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idappaccayat%C4%81`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idappaccayat%C4%81 "Idappaccayatā"){.id-not .include-content include-template="$annotationFileIncludeTemplate"} ::: 3. **[`Instrumental variables estimation`{=html}](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_variables_estimation "Instrumental variables estimation"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="wikipedia" link-icon-type="svg"}** 4. **[`Leakage (machine learning)`{=html}](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leakage_(machine_learning) "Leakage (machine learning)"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="wikipedia" link-icon-type="svg"}** 5. **[`Running of the interns`{=html}](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_of_the_interns "Running of the interns"){.id-not .include-annotation link-icon="wikipedia" link-icon-type="svg"}** ::: aux-links-transclude-file [`https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_of_the_interns`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_of_the_interns "Running of the interns"){.id-not .include-content include-template="$annotationFileIncludeTemplate"} ::: 6. **[`Spanish Christmas Lottery`{=html}](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Christmas_Lottery "Spanish Christmas Lottery"){.id-not .include-annotation link-icon="wikipedia" link-icon-type="svg"}** ::: aux-links-transclude-file [`https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Christmas_Lottery`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Christmas_Lottery "Spanish Christmas Lottery"){.id-not .include-content include-template="$annotationFileIncludeTemplate"} ::: 7. **[`The Crow and the Pitcher § The fable in science`{=html}](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crow_and_the_Pitcher#The_fable_in_science "The Crow and the Pitcher § The fable in science"){.id-not .include-annotation link-icon="wikipedia" link-icon-type="svg"}** ::: aux-links-transclude-file [`https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crow_and_the_Pitcher#The_fable_in_science`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crow_and_the_Pitcher#The_fable_in_science "The Crow and the Pitcher § The fable in science"){.id-not .include-content include-template="$annotationFileIncludeTemplate"} ::: # Miscellaneous - **[`/doc/statistics/causality/2025-ballin-figure1-extensivefamilylevelconfoundinginphysicalfitnessandcorrelates.jpg`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2025-ballin-figure1-extensivefamilylevelconfoundinginphysicalfitnessandcorrelates.jpg){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="image" link-icon-type="svg"}** - **[`/doc/statistics/causality/2023-jeng-figure1-cumulativedistributionofabtestinteractionpvaluetestsshowingnearzeropresenceofinteractions.jpg`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2023-jeng-figure1-cumulativedistributionofabtestinteractionpvaluetestsshowingnearzeropresenceofinteractions.jpg){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="image" link-icon-type="svg"}** - 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**[`/doc/statistics/causality/2019-song-supplement2.pdf`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2019-song-supplement2.pdf "Barin 2019"){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** - **[`/doc/statistics/causality/2018-05-11-isthisapigeonmeme-causation.jpg`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2018-05-11-isthisapigeonmeme-causation.jpg){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="image" link-icon-type="svg"}** - **[`/doc/statistics/causality/2018-jones.pdf`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2018-jones.pdf){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="pdf" link-icon-type="svg" link-icon-color="#f40f02"}** - **[`/doc/statistics/causality/2018-jones-figure8-randomizedvscorrelationliterature.png`{=html}](/doc/statistics/causality/2018-jones-figure8-randomizedvscorrelationliterature.png){.link-annotated-partial .id-not .include-annotation link-icon="image" link-icon-type="svg"}** - 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