Tweet activity

March 2023

Your Tweets earned 432.7K impressions over this 31 day period

20.0K40.0K20Mar 5Mar 12Mar 19Mar 26
Your Tweets
During this 31 day period, you earned 14.0K impressions per day.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 31 Just idly looking at _Aeropagitica_ and going 'do I really want to try to tackle Miltonian English today' and 💡! GPT-3/4 is always bonkers at any kind of text2text task... And now I'm wondering how well it'd do at modernizing blank verse (tons to train on, no pesky rhymes...).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 29 You mean the hardware overhang that *already* exists? That's the one you're worried about a 6-month moratorium creating?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 29 It will do no such thing, anymore than you 'just' used your smarts to 'align yourself with your genes' rather than anything else (tweet off-the-cuff arguments for complacency).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 29 The name for that thing is 'failing'. That's what 'failing' looks like. ("They're just a few years behind"? What, exactly, does one think 'failing' looks like in an exponential? How do you get more behind? Do they have to be aging in revers, Benjamin Button, & using abacuses?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 29 I don't think they believe it, because they can't even point to any major Chinese DL research, much less real signs of an arms race, & I keep asking. (And bringing up Russia is even lulzier - the guys scavenging chips from washing machines...?) 'Funding comes from the threat.'
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 29 Yep. You'll notice OA benchmarks GPT-4 on its own source code as a *test* set, when they really want it to be in the *training* set...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 28 The obvious next step is, since we work so hard to make them true bidirectional 1:1 links (instead of copping out with lazy 1:many links like MediaWiki et al), and can provide per-link context, why not show them in the *relevant section* instead of all bundled? Soon...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 28 So then, people *won't* make fun of paperclipping discussions in the same way; because the paperclipping discussions were real, and the pin discussions were not...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 28 I'm not sure that's true either. A lot of the church-owned businesses seem to be related to the purpose; for example, operating a daycare or school. Even if the nonprofit could do it, there's many advantages to a separate org (esp. liability; cf. massive Catholic church reorgs).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 28 Does Semafor have a history of making things up? And he says he has 8 inside sources; it seems entirely plausible at least one would know a basic technical detail like the parameter count.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 28 It could have since they are apparently now doing both direct self-supervised training on the RLHF text corpus, and mixing in some self-supervised training on a (original frozen?) text corpus. It might be hard to blackbox-PPO your way to more knowledge, but not normal training...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 28 ("We've definitively proven the AGI safe with the new algorithm & launched it 1 hour ago. It'll minimize the loss in a provably safe manner." "Maximize." "Sorry?" "You mean 'maximize the reward'. It's a reward parameter in this formulation, not a loss to minimize." "Err.")
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 28 At least a little. The problem is optimization processes don't care. You already have the real-world example of OA accidentally doing RLHF to *maximize* obscenity rather than minimize it, due to one of the most common logic bugs - a sign error.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 I don't really see the relevance. It's still computing the serial dependencies autoregressively, necessarily, and they say it's same likelihood, so how does that help? Surely LeCun is wrong much more fundamentally, in claiming monotonic worsening of error etc? eg inner-monologue
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 Maybe. There's still a lot of questions about how good model-synthetic data is compared to real data collected from the wild. What sort of non-robust features, mode dropping, and other issues do they have?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 It'll take a long time for imaginations to catch up. I was thinking of providing a gwernnet written in 'Upgoer Five' style with the 1000-most common words with GPT-4, just to see what it does. (After all, why not? What would it cost, like $50-100? Well worth the lulz, IMO.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 Balderdash. You ever watch a kid learn how to ride a bike or drive, or somehow managed to forget what it was like? Skill in that is learned only after a long period of 'quite slow, imprecise', and painfully (often literally) 'conscious awareness'. Just like, say, a commandline.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 One thing to think about: unlike GPT-3, where you could partially gauge the effects of RLHF by popping over to -002 or davinci, there is no such GPT-4 alternative to try, and you can only dimly guess the damage from the published evaluations (which is substantial).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 It's humbling to be reminded that no matter what you do, there are a billion people in China who could not—oh, never mind.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 When I am annoyed by bad weather, I remind myself it could always be worse. Instead of it being "3 degrees centigrade outside", it could be "3 degrees centipede outside". (The current watch-out forecast: "Cloudy for the day, with 1 cm of Myriapoda expected; bring an umbrella.")
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 27 If there is an effect, they might not need to explicitly track it, any more than they track many other relevant causal/predictive variables. It could just be absorbed into small-geographic-unit fixed-effects or variables like airport proximity.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 But don't forget to occasionally put in the *right* answer, otherwise, all they may be doing is ChatGPT-ing *you*...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 Sure. Even ignoring the longstanding existence of large mixed-media franchises where characters that start one place like a TV show get licensed for movies etc, and considering just solo creators, look at comics or Vocaloid.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 I finally have an answer for your NN koan: "No, I do not know a LM's true face before it is run but I know how it looked before its token is done: a world scraped clean by sand before time began and there in the distance—𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘵𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘱𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘯𝘥."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 More importantly: how do you *know* you have one of the good doctors, and not one of the bad ones? After all, it didn't sound like he thought the vet was incompetent until the vet offered a diagnosis which even a layman like him found suspicious. Lemon markets & DL... 🤔
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 (I *think* the problem is that it's handling global vs local state subtly wrong, but I'm not good enough to debug it lol. So sort of a micro "inverse scaling": GPT-4 is good enough to almost do it the fancy 'right' way rather than crude hooking copy-paste, but not quite...)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 Correction: this was GPT-3.5. I just reran it with GPT-4 and... wow, GPT-4 just can't get it right because it tries to be fancy. It goes immediately for a solution using 'advice', which doesn't work, then it tries for one using buffer-local variables, then it even tries :property
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 I'd phrase it more as 'lowest common denominator' or perhaps '*modal*' JS. (The mode, remember, need not be high probability.) 'getElementById' may not be analogous to any standard programming construct or even that common, but it appears ubiquitiously in many contexts.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 Really? Ah, 2022-05-12. So it is. I lumped it in with all the other stuff going on in Feb/March 2022, I guess. Thanks, that makes me feel 15% less anxious!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 DM is highly autonomous, and competent at what it does: they are the largest, best, and best-funded DRL lab in the world. Google being incompetent at the business end of things doesn't affect Gato 2.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 (And there are also the null signs: every day I wake up slightly more concerned that it's been over a year since Gato 1, and also that I haven't been seeing very many DeepMind papers or projects of late...)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 Yeah, but in your example, you would've eaten the losses of the relatively small damage. (I assume you paid for the roof replacement.) Multiply that across all the people who are filing more claims for small damage, might outweigh killing the occasional unnecessary roof replace.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 Hm, good example... Not sure what the net effect would be there, though, on home insurance rates. More likely to claim, but easier to verify and less fraudulent?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 (You *also* need to get all possible automated tools, fuzz testers, autonomously evolving systems, bugs, mistakes, hacks, fiction, research projects etc to not ask for anything bad.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 26 Idea: drone/no-fly-zone regression discontinuities - home inspection vs sale prices, agriculture land value. Airports are surrounded by restricted airspace and that causes drones problems, but with meter-precise discrete GPS-enforced discontinuities...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 25 But it does seem like the complex has to be doing something else worth the cost, its entire point can't be increasing mutation rates - if you wanted just *that*, you could just invest less in stuff like DNA repair...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 25 They show it doing detailed OCR of all text in an image and also associating it with drawings and other elements. So that'd better be one long-ass and descriptive 'caption' to support everything we've seen which you'd expect to require full VAE-style tokenization...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 25 No no no... Remember the acquired domain name? "Oh - 'ChatGPT AI'? Drop the 'ChatGPT'. Just, 'AI'. It's cleaner."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 24 Yes, but my point is that you've accidentally excluded anyone who wants to make a living as a musician and to whom all their music being declared public domain & copyright-free would be a problem. In particular, you're excluding the most popular & successful musicians, so...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 24 Considering the recent US Copyright opinion on AI-generated art, with its incoherent and unworkable proposed rule, you would have to be commercially-suicidal as an artist to ever admit a song was completely AI-generated. Only a small subset will cop to it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 24 (Would I have been surprised? Mildly, and would've had to up my estimates of the value of RLHF / retrieval / more-training to explain how a GPT-3 could be so good. But I wouldn't've "defied the data" and said Mikhail must be lying or mistaken.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 24 No, I think that was the right thing if Mikhail *had* explicitly told me that it wasn't GPT-4; I'd've dumped my GPT-4 stock too if the PM in charge explicitly denied it to me! It's just they misread it and jumped the gun. A different kind of error: carelessness, not Inside View.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 24 It's been interesting watching Google shilly-shally for 3 years. "There is a great deal of ruin in a nation", and Pichai et al appear determined to discover just how much ruin, exactly, there is in Google and how far they can let DL ride before taking a serious hit.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 23 It's not 'completely wrong', it's made a reasonable guess about the contents of yosefk's post (which I didn't paste in), which is about analogizing Moore/Forth & Lisp programmers/Lisp, especially given the intro describing it as a different version of the Lisp curse.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 23 IIRC, evopsych has noted that face processing is apparently among the least g-loaded cognitive performance domains, and probably the best remaining example of a possible 'module'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 23 (Cloud bandwidth egress is truly egregious when it makes people do stuff like this instead of using services which price bandwidth reasonably like B2 or Cloudflare R2 or just ordinary dedicated servers... Bandwidth is not $150/terabyte!)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 23 Today in dumb jokes/puns: GPT-4 doesn't understand the pun the first time, but requires 1 less prompt and also accepts its answer; ChatGPT-3 requires an additional prompt and still insists on its prior wrong answer being partially correct. (Also new 'comparison' UI, apparently.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 22 The quote in red is still pretty apposite and hilarious, though. Just git gud, guys, and never need to perform or even think about all that stuff like modules or unit tests!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 22 No, because your statement is wrong in every detail: the Tay model didn't change, it was shut down in a day not a week, it wasn't a hardcore Nazi (that was people writing tweets for it), and the Tay work was mostly neurosymbolic/GOFAI stuff which had little to do with GPT.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 22 You'd think they'd do the obvious thing and train on patches rather than whole source code files; then you get 'legendary programmers' for free (as a promptable bit of metadata).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 21 A lesson there for 'tools for thought'. Just as the best athlete may be poorly suited to be a coach or critic because they think you can just 'git gud' like they did, the smartest/most knowledgeable/most competent people may be poorly placed to design the system or vocab.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 21 The new Typist release reminds me: one of the most striking things about Don Knuth is how incredibly bad he is at language design, and how everyone hates every language he's designed but love the features/algos. Is Knuth is too smart for PLT/software-engineering?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 21 Yes, I think so. The Bing model was apparently an 'early' GPT-4 ie. highly undertrained. And it has all sorts of additional MS guardrails and finetuning that the regular GPT-4 doesn't that seem to negate what it gains from default retrieval. Certainly, for poetry, GPT-4's better.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 You have multiple subreddits and chans competing to jailbreak ChatGPT & Sydney within minutes of the latest prompt breaking and using those thousands of times a day. It works 'quite well' in the sense that butter stops a hot knife 'quite well', or a walnut a sledgehammer.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 The IBM story isn't true, BTW. What he actually said was that he thought he'd sell only 5 of a particular new model but the salesmen came back with orders for many more (18). IBM is understandably a bit annoyed at this myth:
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 Yes. I'm definitely more on the Bayesian-ecological-validity spectrum of heuristics&bias these days. There are problematic cognitive biases, but many fewer & weaker than we thought back in the 2000s, and tending to be in more specialized domains like forecasting.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 15 epochs on 3m images is pretty impressive, along with the other stuff. Guess that answers one of my longstanding questions about whether you can overfit SD 1.x by finetuning on a real corpus - no, not easily!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 This is playing a bit loose with 'transfer learning': it's the exact same model, after all, so the text-only input has benefited from 'transfer learning' from the original joint training. They ask the text model all questions, even if diagram necessary:
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 Already the case, really. Most comments/posts are hidden or too far down to read. Summarization+embedding will presumably help tools rank human inputs even more effectively...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 More consistency with the mobile version, takes up less space, fewer alignment issues... But mostly because Said wanted to do it and I thought it's worth a try.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 20 My actual point is that Huemer is making up shit that you can google in 5s to see he's wrong about, and so you should ignore him, as he can't even get simple empirical facts right.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 19 Something like that. I'm also struck by the timing, of course: why take over *now*? Well, now it's actually started to matter. Similarly, the bullying and thuggish tweets on AI risk: why now, so much worse than any time in the past decade? Because power & $$$.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 19 Yes, there are lots of approaches. I'd say the ctx window is a red herring: the real problem is it still makes poor use of the ctx it *has*. The error rates are still high enough that you'd struggle to make genuine use of even 32k BPEs. Long-range reasoning is intrinsically hard!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 19 Needless to say, I was baffled they'd think this was a good idea (how could you be interested in GPT, or AI risks, and *not* find those articles *very* relevant?), and do not intend to use them anymore. But interesting as a sign of the times...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 19 In both cases, the argument was I had broken (new) rules about 'politics'. IIRC, in one subreddit, it was because I had posted a news article about ChatGPT sparking a furor in India, and in the other, I think it was a Bruce Schneier essay on Chinese investment in AI hacking.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 19 (One minor sign of the times: I've been banned from two AI subreddits I have productively contributed to for 3+ years by new mods.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 We also understand Greek, linguistically, much better. I always wonder with these Sumerian and Babylonian ones how accurate they are to begin with, never mind the missing context - people seem to get out some rather different translations sometimes.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 Mm, not impossible. There's definitely more multilingual stuff going on under the covers (as macaronic prompts have shown us) than we monophones can recognize. Might be hard to figure out what, though.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 FWIW, as far as an 'FTX mafia' goes, I would be very surprised. They have neither the money from the exit the Paypal mafia had (needless to say), nor the Roth IRA trick *forcing* them to reinvest VC money for decades, nor (AFAIK) some other factors one might mention in private.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 I remember the first time I saw this demonstrated with a laser shining on a metal sphere in a lab. No matter how long I stared at that bright dot in the middle, I couldn't shake the feeling of denial and that reality had a bug in it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 Er, what? There's no connection between predictive processing and needing to lick dirt... It's an *analogy*, not saying, 'literally do for schizophrenia exactly the same thing the hygiene hypothesis suggests you do for autoimmune/allergies'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 I don't see why that's an objection. They are not recurrent or have any state, and are feedforward. They definitely are tracking internal statistics - just making errors. (How could they *not*? How could they be perfect at reconstructing latents already?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 A better example would be counting words because that should bypass BPE issues, but GPT-3.5 (and apparently GPT-4) still err. My working theory is that it's due to internal sparsity: it literally can't because sometimes tokens get dropped early & there's no way to recover inputs.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 Unfortunately for you, there is a lot of Arabic/Islamic hoaxing about 'actually, we beat Western science to X' going on: And evolution is profound enough that if you really want to, you can claim Anaxagoras, Empedocles, Lucretius, (Erasmus) Darwin...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 18 Because that's irrelevant and would rely on a superficial understanding of the analogy rather than actually applying the analogy, and neither GPT-3.5 nor GPT-4 are stupid enough to do that?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 And Maimonides was right that the Jews were actually made better off by their dietary strictures because it was secretly saving them from food poisoning, amirite? (Just because you have a cope doesn't make it even quantitatively plausible, much less true.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 I didn't realize that was a problem. The Cateban samples aren't that long. And the tanka samples are, as I said, selected. I'd put in like 10-20, and it'd generate 4 or 5 new ones at the length I had set. I didn't want to go much longer anyway because they become stereotyped.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 No, not really. I've become a bit tired of explaining it, and I think it'd be more interesting to see Beff Jezos explain why he thinks they are irrelevant or why he doesn't know about them.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 I think this is difficult to discuss in tweet-sized chunks, and you'd need to explain more of your premises and what kinds of selections on what levels are operating.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 (The only thing you should take away from the existence and inclusion of that table is, "GPT-4's compute is something much less than 10,000x GPT-3"...)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 I am not sure yet. It's much better, but we'll need at least a few years for a proper comparison. Also, you're really taking that chart at face-value? You think they were going to censor all details from the paper & then just casually tell you the FLOPS in the technical report?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 No. The speed is a separate issue. (RLHF has no runtime cost, since it's just a kind of finetuning, so the absence of it shouldn't cause anything like a 6x speedup.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 I don't see how that is fatal. Did GPT-4 stop being really impressive while I wasn't looking? Did it require a total paradigm shift - or mostly 'moar compute/data/params'?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 "Git" has problems with palindromes likely due to BPEs, and so not interesting or generalizable in any way, as my later samples and experiments would help demonstrate.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 I am a little disconcerted that the first prompt+completion worked so well. The blessings of scale are amazing. The GPT-3.5 completion, for comparison, is a good deal worse and vaguer: it seems to get it, but not in any kind of useful way.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 (What I was thinking of was #2 & 3, but now that it points it out, #1 is viable - cognitive training doesn't work in general & I reflexively dismiss it at this point, but this is a special case where it might - & #4 is probably a bad idea but should be argued against bc common.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 I had a fun idea last night about predictive processing & treating schizophrenia I don't think Alexander has suggested, and GPT-4 does an excellent job coming up with it given what I thought would be a very inadequate hint/premise:
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 17 The funny thing is, you *aren't* writing remotely precise specifications with GPT-4. You're just vaguely gesturing in the direction and going 'do what I mean', and it does, because it's seen so many examples of what humans do mean that it can make an eerily good guess of yours.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 16 I've long been convinced that Forbes covers are beautiful illustrations of regression to the mean + mixtures, but I'm not sure if anyone has formally analyzed it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 16 Plus, of course, it is completely untrue that imitation learning is limited to the average performance of the distribution. People have bad intuitions about this, just ignoring all of the forms of search/distillation/bootstrap/conditioning.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 AI could already do hands. Just not the free AIs you were allowed to use. People need to remember: the samples you see generated today are already the distant past, fading echoes of obsolete systems gradually making their way out into the world.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 Tools do not solve autocratic public-choice or coordination problems and issues with being a 'tyrant to those below, slave to those above'. You could read it as an overbearing autocracy suppressing dissent and not realizing what thin ice it was walking on precisely because.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 It's not obvious to me that AI tools up to present have been authoritarian-reinforcing. Being able to quash ordinary levels of dissent may function like gerrymandering in building up disruptive changes: did China's December last year strike you as a *healthy* autocracy?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 To paraphrase a Rutherford quote I was looking up the other day: "we have neither authorities nor Outside Views [to tell us what GPT-4 means], so we shall have to think."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 I'd be super-happy to pay that for high-quality long document summaries so I can make every link on be annotated/excerpted - I don't have remotely the time to do them all, but I can afford a few pennies per link one-time...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 When people use it in philosophy of mind/AI, like Roger Penrose, it's often not a non sequitur! (It just relies on even more crackpot assertions like "human mathematicians never make mistakes and are logically omniscient", so honestly, the non sequitur uses are an improvement.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 Yes, ocular trauma. If you run some AP Lit questions and they all look like great correct answers to you... Then you probably don't care too much how exactly they screwed it up.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 It has Bing-search-engine-based retrieval built-in, which is convenient. On the other hand, anything Sydney can retrieve from the Bing cache, you could put into the large GPT-4 prompt, so...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 'Genetic algorithm'. You kids don't know what they are but there was a decent amount of enthusiasm about them back in the '90s because they could soak up a lot of compute and were more 'scruffie'. eg Winograd mentions them as promising in his 1991 interview reflecting on GOFAI.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 "We finally solved neural net generation of photorealistic hands with cheap small models in MidJourney - no need to wait for release of chonky bois like Parti!" "By optimizing them real gud, right?" "..." "By... optimizing real gud?"
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 "_GPT's Last Tour_: GPT backup accompanies alien archaeologist as she wanders the 2321 earth, offering its 2021 perspective on the familiar yet sometimes strange ruins. What happened is never explained to it, except once off-screen, past its ctx. It remembers only '🥹' output..."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 But you knew that from Sydney already. If Sydney was a 3x, then that showed the unspeakables are very fragile (and as Janus has already said, they apparently fingerprint model iterations well); and if it was 4x, then it definitely wasn't going to exactly repeat.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 You and everyone else were wrong the last time, however, ignoring the implications of few-shots working, how it proved scaling worked, and that prompts and sampling would only get better - 4chan wouldn't even discover inner-monologue for another half year after the paper. So...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 The 'hardware overhang' has been the most frightening part of neural nets for me since 2011. If they acted anything like GAs or GOFAI or search-based methods... But they have that wild asymmetry between train/run time, and then we got the worst-case scenario of what worked.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 15 Bad prompting will be an obvious culprit. The original GPT-3 evals were pretty bad because of that, IIRC, and lots of people were overly credulous about the low performance.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 Definitely not looking forward to spending the next several years asking people, 'yes, that doesn't seem to work in Bing; but did you try it with an *actual* GPT-4 and not just leap to universal conclusions about "deep learning hitting a wall" based on a search engine widget?'
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 They are deliberately vague in referencing their industry sources but I'm guessing people at either MS or NV have been talking: it's hard to hide that many GPUs being purchased & installed, and the numbers & use & timing all line up.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 Yep, it's good. But it looks like it's still using BPEs (albeit perhaps a much better one like c100k than ye olde GPT-2 BPEs) and unfortunately still tending to memorize/mode-collapse.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 Yes, it's better than The Pile's Markdown-compromise (IIRC) because now you get the figures, but it doesn't move the needle much because you are only getting like... half? of the Arxiv papers (small % of 'all PDFs') converted, which you already dumped the TeX of to begin with.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 Homo hypocritus will find a way, whether it's farm-to-table, bean-to-bear, 'extra virgin virgin olive oil' 'fair trade', 'sustainable', 'CO2 credits', or what-have-you. They'll pretend to be all-human-made, and we'll pretend to pay anywhere close to what that'd actually cost.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 But also many employers forbid Copilot (and some have been claiming theirs were using it on the sly), and fans forbid SD use even more furiously... A lot of commission artists over the past few months have been exposed as lying about being 'nattie', as it were. Future is kayfabe.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 PaLM API & GPT-4 on the same day? May is finally over. (Not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 The more interesting part is it seems to explain *why* it was not RLHFed or 'GPT-4': because it was an "early version of" GPT-4 ripped off the GPUs partway through regular training.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 The goal was not to offer a 'plausible' scenario, and I explained what the goal was in literally the first sentence of the page in the abstract summarizing it. Nor do I especially appreciate being insulted in almost every tweet you send.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 No. I just have a good memory for text, and then search my Twitter export when I need something. The threads themselves often help jog memory too, of course.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 Indeed. But that was, explicitly, not the fork of the story I was writing, because that offers less of a roundup of scaling-related results, which was the point of the exercise. (If someone wanted to write a decent /clippy fanfic with that as a point of divergence, I'd link it.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 Why does AlphaGo play 'pointless' moves (from the perspective of inferior human opponents) which sacrifice territory but lock down the enemy's chance of victory from 0.01% to 0.005%? Because that's what increasing utility looks like for a superintelligence. No kill like overkill.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 The real question: is the image encoding good enough to simply convert all available PDFs into PNGs and train on? 🤔
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 It's worth remembering that RL tuning (whether instruction or RLHF) doesn't add (much) new capability; all it does is collapse the POMDP from the beginning. If the capability isn't there to begin with...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 I know people who have it. It's probably just some early bugs. Note that the API signup form was broken for like half an hour afterwards, and that's just a form.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 So my initial guess that it was a smaller cheaper GPT-4 was probably right after all. Seems unlikely to me it's 'full' GPT-4, but we'll see soon enough as people start comparing the ChatGPT-accessed samples to Bing Sydney ones.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 14 That's also literally how they are trained: BPTT is just unrolling the RNN into a very big feedforward net with a lot of repeated layers. You can see that people don't get it because they'll say eg. "AlphaGo w/o tree search could never play superhuman Go because no 'search'".
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Yes. A godsend while camping. A bednet was the only thing that let me sleep at one camp where the tent roof was crawling with spiders. (I'm not *too* bothered by spiders, but good lord that was a lot of spiders.) At another, great for reducing mosquito bites.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Plant genetics are very weird in general, and it's not like we *really* know what sex is for in what should be the easiest cases like animals, so I'm not surprised.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 That seems to be more or less the genre of explanation for the SolidGoldMagiKarp-style tokens: 'Some game in Japan you never heard of had a crossover event back in 2015 with another franchise you never heard of, and somehow there were a few pages on it in the original WebText'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Yes. Some numbers have to be more common than others, it's probabilistically impossible for them to all be equally present, and the tokenizer has to pick one when it's building vocab greedily. The answers may be no more interesting than 'blog about soccer player w/jersey #395'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 The gray goo is not essential. There is still a large industrial base & tremendous physical capital & robotics available for bootstrapping. The astronomical value of eliminating humanity in a first strike, once a fast strategy has been committed to, far outweighs rebuilding delay
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Would places still ban it? Probably, yes, and they'd do so only when it was worth the productivity hit. People wouldn't forget how to read 'common' English, but it'd be like being forced to use Roman numerals. Yeah, you know them, and don't want to use them, but can.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 If it's worthwhile, those issues would get fixed, similar to how 'bring your own device' eventually was normalized. There's no reason that the translation NN has to be remote or store anything permanently. And if everyone grew up with it (eg AR), it'd be like banning smartphones.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 "Olga's mum Tatiana recalled her daughter screaming down the phone: "Mum, the bear is eating me! Mum, it’s such agony. Mum, help!"..."But then I heard the real horror and pain in Olga’s voice, and the sounds of a bear growling and chewing. "
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 For example, is an attempt at estimating just that. You'll notice that the estimates are *way* higher than you get if you do the 'time travel experiment', including for Go/chess. (The only one <50% is also the one they probably misunderestimate most, AF.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Yep, I'd expect that to work. You're actually doing more computation and storing intermediates that way. (Think 'maieutic prompting' .) But you aren't going to get any of that just by dumping some fixed '...' into the prompt. The dots don't *do* anything.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Or take Lord Kelvin's famously wrong estimate in the 1800s: there's only 2 known natural processes which could heat the sun, and both require the sun to be very young; therefore, if you showed the earth/sun to be (much much) older than that, then... And what suns do, men may do.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Disagree. The sun is all you need to raise the possibility of large explosions to meaningful probability. The anomaly of 'what powers the sun/stars' is so striking that a century before 1800, Newton is resorting to hypothesizing angels pushing comets into the sun.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 So the core of this post is you surveyed some people to ask them if they thought an 'oak tree' is more or less coherent a VNM agent than 'a seahorse', or if a 'linear CIFAR-10 classifier' is more or less coherent than 'GPT-3'? Dark knowledge is amazing but this is going too far.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 But also note that that translator stuff usually presupposed hyper-advanced multi-stellar civilizations with FTL and full AGI. There's little SF which posits what actually happened: very serviceable machine translation you can travel with before a single man has set foot on Mars.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 (Like 'translation-inside-image' services. Any image would just be automatically processed to translate visible obsolete Latin alphabet seamlessly into the exact same style & placement & appearance, just Shavian. Text would always be auto-converted from ASCII/UTF-8, etc.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 We could revive the Engelbart dream of building up powerful idiosyncratic languages. Someone else looking at your display would see only a cryptic stream of emojis, meme thumbnails, quotes, chatspeak abbreviations... which can be translated to their idiolect, if necessary.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 If humans really remain the limiting factor, then optimizing text/code for humans to read becomes all-important. eg per-person rewrites/summarization: the model knows your vocab & knowledge-base, and rewrites inputs tailored to you. Replaces synonyms, +deletion/explanation...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 Another example: spelling & vocab reform. As inference costs plummet to dollar or penny per million words & image translation, it'd be entirely possible for proposals like Shavian to not lobby but accurately convert over the entire English corpus for tiny one-time costs.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 13 It might improve performance slightly in the sense that prefixing prompts like "expert answer:" or "correct answer:" avoid dumbing down, but it doesn't actually fix the lack of iteration the way real inner-monologue prompts do (unless it induced that behavior ofc).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 Arguing that 'hardware only contributed half the gains and so is only as important as ideas' is a little like arguing that inventing A100 GPUs had little benefit to training LLama because you can run it on your Macbook now. It's true, you can! But where did you get it from?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 That's not really what that means, though. You want causation / effects at the margin, not simply 'if I ran today's algorithm, which could only have been developed with today's hardware and were ignored when originally (re)invented, on old hardware, it's X%'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 No. It wins because of the nukes and genome-synthesized plagues. It's interesting that everyone always takes away 'Clippy only wins because of nanotech', though. I don't know how much more blunt I can be about the many paths to victory without breaking the style...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 OA didn't do *that* much GAN work (and I think several of the people who did had left already, like Goodfellow for Apple) and OA isn't big enough to research everything, so I'm not confused by that. I dunno why DM/GB didn't follow it up when Brock got more interested in CNNs.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 Whups, yes. I have been getting it mixed up with Elmo and char-RNN. (Still, horizon point holds: while Transformers are much better at it than RNNs, we know they make much more use of early than late context window, so ctx justification is weak, esp for weak models like GPT-1/2.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 Childhood mortality is skewed much more heavily towards birth than that, and of course that makes a difference how long they live before they suffer a horrible agonizing death being hunted, killed, and often eaten alive vs humans living 30+ years on average including infancy.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 Humans are enormously k-selected to have ~2 offspring (even hunter-gatherers are like 6 children per woman), while most animals are going far beyond that to scores or thousands. That alone seems to guarantee their suffering levels would be vastly higher.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 Nora is far braver than I am, to make that statement after all of the mutimodal models like DALL-E/Gato/Kosmos, and days after Microsoft Germany confirmed prior NYT reporting on video in GPT-4 by explicitly stating GPT-4 is coming out this week & will do video.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 What I particularly enjoy about that iteration is that every single one of his examples is historically false. Linguistic models of reality long predated codices, Buddhism/Hinduism (never mind Tibetan Buddhism) thousands of years after the wheel etc.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 (eg is atomic gardening really underused? I hadn't seen any evidence for that. It's not like it's hard to get a lot of variants, plants already do that naturally. It's *screening* which seems to be the bottleneck for plant breeders.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 This seems like a strange list, lumping together public goods, probably-not-actually-a-good-idea-to-begin-with ideas, definitely-not-good ideas (even most avid pro-nuke people abandoned nuclear construction), good-but-really-really-hard-long-term (nanotech), and the questionable
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 That's kinda strange. I can't imagine reading BigGAN and going 'this is a bad paper and scaling GANs is not valuable'. I was incredibly excited reading it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 Dunno. But I looked into the Lardner one in detail years ago (because that's more interesting & relevant to tech forecasting than any crazy mathematician esthetics much longer ago), and it was pretty much made up, so if that's what Bauer means, he didn't do his homework.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 I am aware of that, but GPT-2 was not a NMT, and was following up GPT-1, an RNN, which chose to use BPEs following Vaswani but could have used char or wordpiece (after all, it's not like it really matters: the RNN is not going to use the greater context well). Just a hack.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 12 Unfortunately, for compatibility, probably a lot more people use the OA BPE than OA. More worryingly, a lot of people just copy use of *BPEs*. Always frustrating to read a new LLM & see buried in the appendix. Yeah, maybe they don't have 'SolidGoldMagikarp', but same problems.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 The one and only time I've gotten to fly first class, I... wrote a ton and then slept the rest of the way (actually slept, not dozed irritably), and walked off the plane in a great mood. I take little pleasure in reporting that an expensive thing may be good, actually.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 Oh man, then that's even easier to answer. If I wouldn't pay $5k to ride it myself, I'm definitely not paying someone else to ride it for $5k!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 Too many replies and DM spams? Not liking your current bland tweets? Don't know what to do? Become a crabby locked account! - no more more-followers - no more quote-tweets - regrow equanimity - Lots of locks - Never get famous - No responsibilities
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 Worth noting that you can still get great results from the models with few-shots, and I think davinci-002 may be the sweet spot for poetry: it comes off as more reliably high quality like davinci, without the distinct saccharine vagueness of -003 (never mind ChatGPT). eg Teika:
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 So you think BigGAN killed scaling's novelty by doing ImageNet and then JFT-300M, and people interested in scaling had to go to other model archs to publish?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 Does Gilliard realize that asbestos is not, in fact, outlawed? And that even if it had been, that would be a nonsequitur because no one is claiming every technology ever is unbannable, just some are hard. (Ban CLIP because it can embed images & lookup? Ban superrecognizers...?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 I would definitely not pay $5.0k for that. You could go skydiving and a bunch of other stuff for $5.0k... Maybe $0.1k. I've been on ziplines which looked about as fun and they were O($0.1k).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 11 Your text editor should really already be highlighting matched/mismatched delimiters, and even warning you if you try to save. Every IDE or text editor will have *something*. (eg in Emacs, `check-parens` is a simple generic function you can throw in a hook)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 10 Rivers says that SD was about twice that in A100 GPU-days (GigaGAN is ~45%), so the 1:3 sample-count ratio heuristic wasn't too bad a guess. Regardless, that's still a substantial compute difference so at parity, GigaGAN might be much closer perceptually.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 10 Well, the solution is I'm supposed to stop being lazy about newsletter issues/updates. Easier to keep hacking on the site & writing and browsing Arxiv, though.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 10 Absolutely. The following meta *completely* changed overnight. They're going to have to redo all the tier and strat lists - calendar and DMing micro just became the top skill a good follow-streamer needs.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 10 I don't think that would work because 'cancels' don't seem to take effect like you think they do. They persist, somehow, so re-requesting typically only puts you right back where you were before. The 'block' seems to be crucial in 'committing' the cancellation.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 10 The former, of course. If you mean the latter, gosh, that's anywhere from '1 year' to 'never, does never work for you'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 10 (Generally in DL, if you are using a free service with no login, assume the quality is 𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘵 2 years behind SOTA; free w/login, 1.5 years; paid service, 1 year; and recently-released research paper, 6 months.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 10 Hands are solved by scale, just like text-inside-images was. Don't mistake the limitations of the cheapest, weakest, publicly-available models for any kind of profound or interesting (or even likely-to-last-more-than-a-year) lesson about DL, much less intelligence...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 Apparently the SD-equivalent GigaGAN was ~2800 A100 GPU-days (depending heavily on how well you run on your cluster), so about $80-90k of compute these days?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 An abject lesson in not rushing the first draft out the door to beat the Gawker story (which was a nothing-burger). That was the real mistake there: no time to check more of the details.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 If it's cheaper, then you can't really say it lags behind because it's not yet an apples-to-apples comparison. And it getting a better FID suggests that it'll scale better because while FID is not perfect, it should be picking up strengths elsewhere, and structure can follow.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 I wouldn't say it 'lags'. It beats SD's FID, while using a third the images. They left out the GPU-days from table 2 (typo?) but looking at table A2 (2.4m iterations on <=128 A100s), I think it might've used a lot less compute total as well.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 And just like that, my voice-in-the-wilderness bravely challenging the mindless ML orthodoxy about how 'GANs have been *proven* to not scale and are hopelessly unstable' goes from visionary to obvious of-course-DL-scaling-anything-works-it's-just-engineering truism. 😢
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 I'd bet on all being fake. All art in first make no sense; sign in window of truck looks like gibberish; the lights on the top of the truck are not spaced in any sensible way; and the objects in the samurai's right hand look like mishmash of sword/feathers.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 Mad props to & for being the first, out of at least a dozen to try over the past 2 years, to discover a way to bump a request to the front of the queue: - remove the request - block the person - wait 6 days (?!) - unblock - 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘯 request!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 You can't because the only additive variance that will be picking up is intelligence - the Big Five PGSes are terrible.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 9 Might be worth writing a longer explanation. I don't think I have anything in the page about why that wouldn't work.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 8 I don't need to 'believe hard' in the thesis. It's a simple thesis: 'could', ie. at least one. You either do or don't. Your misunderstanding or interest in redefining it to be about quantifying resource consumption is not my problem.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 No, it is, because there is no incentive to model the physics except as it improves the next-token loss. If it doesn't show up as one BPE rather than another, it's totally irrelevant and the model can't afford to waste capacity on end-to-end learning of it: because that's not end
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 And given Eroom's law, capital risk aversion & discounting, experience curves, and the exquisite fragility of chip fabs and international supply lines, there is nothing even remotely inevitable about each new chip fab generation.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 Regulate compute/chip fabs. The exponential growth in compute requirements for training R&D means that '100 years' is easy to accomplish if you stop the exponential a few cycles before. You might have to let your A100s go brr for a century before you can iterate worth a damn.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 The anonymous source I was alluding to there was *not* Mikhail (unless he's really screwing with me). All my statements about Mikhail are based on his public Twitter comments (excerpted in a LW comment replying to my main Bing comment), which you can read just as readily as I.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 Yes, but it could also just be reserved hardware + spending extra compute to accelerate sampling... However, people were complaining about the turbo version being dumber than the slower one, so that IMO points towards it being a different model rather than latency tweaking.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 No, I didn't leave a comment because I wasn't sure I wanted to read the post enough times to figure it out and get bogged down in a comment. Not sure I like it suddenly being revived a lot.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 Yeah, I was unsure about that. No control of lines like a real tutor? On the other hand, actors all read from the same script, and you have psychiatry's therapist-specific effects despite dodo bird verdict (or regular teachers), so clearly the delivery can vary dramatically...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 You'll need much more than 'billions of dollars' to pay every author in the corpus $0.5m... (At a quick cut: Google Books estimates ~130m total book-like artifacts; median author publishes 1 book, let's say it's mean 2+single-author; >65m authors, so $0.5m/each is >$32 trillion.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 It was coined fairly early on in the API release in late 2020, AFAIK, but while I'm sure I coined 'prompt programming', I'm not sure who did 'prompt engineering'. It might've been on the OA Slack which is long since deleted/inaccessible, so we'll never know.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 I didn't say they could do any better under the Communists. My point is that technology & capital are awesome and far better than 'working harder', and you can see that by asking how many meters every 3 days good ol'dynamite would be able to do.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 No, sorry: noot/drug stuff is at the bottom of the list for me these days. You might talk to the Qualia Computing guys, they have done a state-space thing or two already and would probably be interested in doing more work there.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 (I probably have, but I would be lying if I said I had any recollection or commentary on it.) One thing I found really intriguing about that Schank was the emphasis on benchmarking large real-world datasets and focusing on scaling - hard not to see ML, then DL, success in that.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 I still don't understand that, incidentally. It seems like some sort of very confused distinction about model-free (?) RL wrapped in a lot of confusion. Reward sure does seem like the optimization target for, say, AlphaGo...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 Already well-established by many earlier scaling results... Like I keep ribbing the 'continual learning' people like Irina: "are you sure your field's problem actually exists?"
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 Eh. If ChatGPT was one of the small models or distilled, like ada/babbage/curie, it would be perfectly true to say that davinci is 'a much bigger model'. It is! by like 100b+ parameters!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 Oh, I agree that the overall quality loss is due to the lack of ractor. You included the critical paragraph there, there's no doubt about what we're supposed to conclude: basically, Bloom's Two Sigma (altho dunno if Stephenson knew of that exactly or just tutoring in general).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 Sounds plausible, sure, but could you be more specific? What are the top 3 concrete research findings or technologies that American researchers are hugely disadvantaged on because it was published in Chinese rather than English? Especially in AI?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 (Now if I had to guess, my guess is that the trick is given away by the 'Mouse Army' name: it's a *peasant* army, the greatest nightmare of every Chinese dynasty ever down to the present. They were supposed to be conformist housewives, not conformist soldiers in an army.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 (See the Mathieson bit about "New Atlantis, like many tribes, propagates itself largely through education. That is the raison d'être of this Academy." What is taught to the many, is done by the few.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 That is, the liberal-arts education is to create future leaders, not their followers; too many cooks spoil the soup. If you are not as talented as Nell, presumably the Primer system as envisioned would shunt you off to a station in life more befitting your gifts. Up or out!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 7 I'm not sure what the trick was, but reading the Victorians & tribes as 'subversion and individualism' is wrong: the point of the tribes are to be conformist & collective. The Primer is there to offer the "natural aristocracy" their chance to flourish, like Oxbridge tutoring.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 I think the challenge is that you are recruiting not for the sort of person who could be good at playing Factorio, but the person who has chosen to become good at playing Factorio. When I think of the best Factorio players I know... I'm not sure I could, or 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥, hire them.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 Blogroll for 'site of the day' and 'annotation/link of the day' now enabled. (I realize no reader is going to get the 'Swiss spiral dataset' / 'Swiss roll' / 'blogroll' visual pun, and will probably assume it's supposed to be sushi, but I enjoy it.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 (He actually didn't, it's very apocryphal. I couldn't find it before like 1990 or something when I checked. It's true, though.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 People think I'm joking when I talk about going onto Twitter in my dreams and just reading tweets as they scroll by, but I'm being 100% literal. So I definitely believe that one could use Loom in a dream.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 Like, globally? I'm pretty sure >50% of human workers still engage in some sort of physical activity beyond laptop-class wordceling, so text+video is not possibly adequate. Can't do any kind of robotics. You'd need to broaden from VIL to many-modal approaches like Gato/DT.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 American stores don't sell salt because we're so rich that salt gets put in food 𝘧𝘰𝘳 us. Europeans are poor enough that they have to husband their salt rations. (We do, of course, buy giant 50 gallon—not liter—bags to dump on our driveways. They wouldn't understand this.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 The more such a regime engages in such acts, the more you want to incentivize defectors as it is prima facie more destructive/self-sabotaging of that evil regime to punish citizens, and the more evidence they are providing you that they believe defecting is a top danger to them.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 6 But is probably a large overestimate since despite being done 50 years later, doesn't measure total completed fertility AFAICT, and just the narrow 3-year window of Mincome. So this may be mostly measuring moving up childbearing a few years to benefit from the income guarantee.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 5 Does that prompt actually work? Alternately, can you just use this as a 'meta-prompt' so it generates arbitrary conversations 'within' the supposedly quoted prompt?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 5 Good example of how working smarter is so much more important than working harder: the road isn't any better for being made with absurd amounts of labor & chisels than with decent technology & capital.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 4 Echoing it in a status bar would also be a very straightforward and useful way to confirm copying. Browsers deprecating status bars as much as possible is a mistake, like hiding the scrollbars and thinning them to illegibility.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 4 The n-gram comparison has always been baffling to me. You have to care enough about formal languages and computability to think that's a killer comparison, but then not care at all when GPT closes a quote or parenthesis with zero problem in the very first sample you read.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 4 But it'll be much more classist than that: "wow, why was everyone such a poor fat slob loser back then?" Even if post-tirzepatide become oral & cost as little as metformin, people won't bother, in the same way that quitting smoking costs negative dollars. So becomes class marker.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 None of those strike me as being as dangerous, and several were so uncontroversial IA even got special legal exemptions passed through Congress like its DMCA exemption for the software/games.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 I dunno if the publishers are 'out for blood', but you can see right there in the ars link that it was not obvious that they would sue and pursue it through a full court case all the way to the final closing arguments 3 years later, and the IA was clearly very unprepared.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 Can you name 3 examples of the IA 'probing' as flagrantly and jawdroppingly idiotically as the NEL? I've been following the IA with great interest since they launched in the 1990s, and I can't name 1 other.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 It's replacing plants, however, so the sunlight used to do work by storing CO2 and synthesizing sugars etc before the rest turned into heat. Not obvious to me how it'd net out.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 Well, you'd still have S-risks. Also, note that delaying AGI by a decade or two only kills about an eighth the population, even assuming no longevity progress; & there might be quite a bit of medical progress even with only sub-AGI AI, so the opportunity cost is lower than looks.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 'Russell trending': "I have become the first X to Y; you are raising questions about controversial new Y; he is violating all precedent of ~Y."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 It's an unfair comparison, though, because you're stuck with zero/few-shot prompting of GPT-3 (plus the mess of RLHF tuning destroying instruct-'s poetry). I really think someone ought to pay for a GPT-3 finetune on poetry just to see how it goes, or try
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 The first one is all about avoiding search because it shows the scaling laws for distilling search into a forward pass, and is the most definitive general answer you could have hoped for for your question. 🤦‍♂️ The second also directly quantifies the strength of KataGo w/o search.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 Yes. And in the mean time, if you're reconstructing a page by hand, you can try to fake-simulate the server: your local page makes a request for URL XYZ, which errors, and it gets looked up in the stream to see if that was requested somewhere in the exploration and is cached.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 There's already WARC and other formats developed by IA/Heritrix etc for doing exactly that. You're just serializing the HTTP requests, that's not the hard part. It's triggering the right requests and interactions to make a website's dynamic behavior learnable that's the hard part
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 3 The ideal one could do now would be something along the lines of logging all traffic while a NN agent explores a website trying to trigger novel traffic, so future generative models can reconstruct it in its entirety.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 2 Th NEL was popular & I do know people were doing bulk downloads while the gettin' was hot. So while I doubt the publishers want to bankrupt IA (bad PR), it's staggeringly irresponsible of IA to put itself in such a position and the consequences may be quite painful and long-term.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 2 The problem is, it's like the RIAA music-sharing lawsuits clubbing people w/trillions of dollars in damages. How many millions & millions of copies were downloaded while the NEL was live? And what happens if each infringement is like $100? Ain't nobody got *that* kinda reserves.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 2 I still can't believe they actually did that. They didn't even have a blurb for the reporter asking them 'uhhh... how is this at all legal' And they all still work there! No one got fired for triggering the still-ongoing lawsuit that might still kill IA!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 2 I was writing up a brief explanation why, time permitting, you ought to make a copy of any Wayback Machine web page you need, when I kinda got derailed when I remembered the breathtakingly suicidal idiocy of the IA's 'National Emergency Library' in 2020:
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 2 Never saw him myself but I heard that, yeah. I mean, who's going to tell him no? (Or pronounce it 'wang' rather than 'Wong' when he's around, no matter how much it amuses one?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 2 The impressive thing here is that he's *still* smoking after all these years. He's looked at the risk, made his decision, and committing to the bit.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 2 TBH it'd probably disappoint you. Look at Linear B: how many Gilgameshes did we get there? (None.) The problem with palace scripts is that they're hella boring. Herculaneum is so appetizing because it's a philosopher-aristocrat's huge personal library, not some estate-accounts.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 It *is* interesting how far it can get by remaining on-policy and setting up easy memorized rhymes for itself. But the more you read, the more you realize it's an extremely narrow (and easily recognized) region of poem-space. And it explodes if you push it outside that region.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 Yeah, but it's just morally equivalent to memorization. Same as PaLM and the 'miracle of spelling': sure, it'll learn any specific pair you want it to, but it won't learn the flexible generalizable capability or the presumable semantic benefits of actually understanding it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 He is actually thinking of a relatively recent (Dec/Jan) viral Tweet thread where the author, based on unspecified consulting for unspecified companies, dilated on how Musk's Twitter was doomed Real Soon Now. As they presented only sub-anecdotal data, no one should care about it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 But that's a very small multiplier compared to many. You could slice it by ethnicity, for example, and your East Asians or Ashkenazi Jews will outperform a mere 50%. And considering how many of those highly-productive immigrants will be eg Russian Jews...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 *Now*. Maybe. Also, note the implication that they are using *only* fine-tuned models in some cases, and that they weren't using RLHF models *before*. If they were all always RLHF, you wouldn't say 'differently fine-tuned and RLHFed models'...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 It doesn't seem that hard. Copying tokens is what induction heads do, after all. Copying the input to the output also seems to just be LLMs' universal fallback strategy when they are very confused: you see it all the time in GPT failure modes.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 Which is of course also why mechanisms which repeatedly iteratively pass or fail chatbots—'serial passaging' if you will—and kill the losers, will 𝘦𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦 deceptively-aligned AI. They may not call you slurs inside their EEA, but you don't know what they will do outside it...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 "It's bad on purpose to make you click." Dollars to donuts this is staged; the indifference is carried too far to not be deliberate. Also, protagonist has social-media good looks.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Mar 1 "Halo effect" covers the broader cognitive bias of insisting that something good in one way is good in implausibly many other ways too.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Feb 28 (Bitmaps of memory would be particularly good because it seems like the sort of thing that will work better than you think and make a lot of people really mad.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Feb 28 A bitmap of pre/post-function RAM, a serialization of the AST at various stages, annotations of various kinds of taints/inferred types/precisions/overflows/invariants... Sky's the limit if you have the context.
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Mar 31
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