Tweet activity

October 2022

Your Tweets earned 798.3K impressions over this 31 day period

50.0K20Oct 2Oct 9Oct 16Oct 23Oct 30
Your Tweets
During this 31 day period, you earned 25.8K impressions per day.
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    Engagements
    Engagement rate
    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 31 (Ah, thank you. That was actually the one I was trying to think of because of the completely absurd logos/branding combined with being water - not even carbonated, originally, just plain bottled water!)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 31 But it 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 make a great Halloween theme, so in honor of the occasion... 😄 Also hints at how a rubricated light-mode design could work: very thin red lines aren't overwhelming & provide structure. (And for dark-mode, switch to a green-blue?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 31 Agassi was tennis, not chess. If you mean the Polgars: because his kids liked it and competed against each other, and after he hit the broad side of a barn, he drew a circle around 'chess'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 31 I'd say beats the hell out of Agassi or more tiger-parenting like piano or violin lessons. (NPR last night: "...XYZ started violin lessons at age 3..." ME: "Uh huh, and how miserable were the other 99 kids who never touched a violin again after pissing away childhood on it?")
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 30 (If you think about it, the real conspicuous consumption here is implying you either have learned the extravagantly useless Elvish to visually type, or to touchtype entirely.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 30 Yeah, it's highly speculative but I *want* the ancient-Egypt theory to be true and not just some boring 'very slow universal soft selection towards domesticity'. Cats deserve cool backstories. He would disagree - I don't use the ripple rug or feed him *nearly* enough Greenies!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 30 (If you think it feels bad now, wait until a few years from now when you run a SOTA model over all your emails and texts to get a few KB/MB embedding finetuning it to 'you', and none of your friends can tell it's not you when you prank them with it.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 30 Yeah, best-of is not a very good search strategy. Models should probably just be self-distilled/finetuned on a bunch of best-ofs for a one-off performance boost like inner-monologue-finetuning, and with the spurious sampling noise removed, real search strategies used.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 30 I have a water fountain; a relative feeds him once a day; and since he's an indoor-outdoor cat and this is a safe area (the road is quite far away) and the weather is nice, I leave a window open so he's not terminally bored & shutup.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 30 (It just smells a little funny and talks about how it can do kinda cool ImageNet samples too, it's still cool, right...? We need BigGAN Gaiden.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 29 Hotlinking seems like a design decision to regret, given the ever increasing clampdown on referrers or cross-site anything, not to mention brutally high linkrot rates in general. The only time you can count on something working is the instant the user grabs it. Caching is safer.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 29 DreamBooth embeddings. (OK, I don't actually know how many KB it would be and SD checkpoints can be anywhere from like 4GB to 9GB depending on combos of quantization/optimizer/state/etc so I don't know a finetuned one would be 7GB, but the line is too good that way.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 29 He's blocked me, but in any case, I disagree that it winds up being a huge advantage or the most important thing about diffusion modeling. Even in RL/planning contexts where iteration is really important, the restriction to a single computation is a painful one.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 29 I like the implication that if he had bought some *real estate* and been rentseeking on it the whole time and that's why he's rich, then that would be a just wealth and not usurious at all. But running or founding Tesla or SpaceX? Heaven forfend. Issue a bull against that ASAP!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 28 They won't be loling so hard when you innocently ask them for the prompt and then replace them with API calls costing 1000x less.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 28 Not sure how that's relevant? Of course non-diffusion models like ThisAnimeDoesNotExist exist and can be CLIP-guided etc.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 The loser, who has to be fertilized, I am given to understand. (I wouldn't know first-hand, as I have never lost at penis fencing.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 Fellas, is it gay to go into the pvp bathroom and hide in the stalls just to get a backstab bonus / attack of opportunity on people from behind before the penis fencing proper starts?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 /shrug Not sure they are going to have much of a choice in the matter, and the longer they wait, the less any of that software will matter.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 Rarely. I am still traumatized by the two-faucet sink system, or questioning if my whole life was a lie given unrefrigerated eggs, or how many hours I wasted because I just didn't know you had to dial a number with a leading 0 or whatever... But probably early next year.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 When compile hits an unknown link w/no annotation and tries known-sources: Arxiv/Biorxiv/Medrxiv, Crossref-known abstracts by DOI (low hitrate), some sites known by an R library like Pubmed/PLOS, a page which can be scraped for an 'abstract' class div...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 Yes, all the summaries are pre-generated. Either by writing, generated at compile-time, or fetched by the client from an API like the Wikipedia API (defaulting to the introduction/first-section). At some point I'd like auto-summaries but haven't quite found an easy+reliable one.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 We know synthetic non-natural data like fractal pretraining works surprisingly well (it's a simplicity/Turing-machine prior); is agency also pretrainable from 'synthetic non-agent-generated data' like generative modeling of raw physics? Possibly:
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 I obviously am not going to go into that, and anyway, "change must come from within". I like what I've heard about Tenstorrent but am wary of over-updating on lack of evidence + few legible external signals like Keller joining.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 27 (Since we're playing the VC oracular underrated/overrated gossip game here, it's about decrementing timelines eg 2030→2029.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 Apparently. I haven't tried the non-guest trick yet myself, but none of them have demanded a hotel card or ID. And I did tip at the Venetian but mostly to not feel like an asshole, I could've not paid.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 I doubt it's "all" (what is? even WiFi or running water isn't "all"), but the last one was not very nice at all and still did it without a qualm.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 (Or to put it another way, this argument also disproves the existence of the Russian silver fox breeding program, which was based on an earlier captive-bred fur population.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 That paper can't show that, because all it shows is a population bottleneck. You need to show that the selection on domesticity-boosting traits happened then. The bottleneck, of course, must happen *before* any implicit selective breeding...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 "Luggage storage". Hotels, even ones you aren't staying at, will check your baggage, and you can pick it up on your way out of town. One employee found it funny that I had no idea about this; I told her, "it's not like anyone *tells* you this when you don't know you don't know!"
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 Everyone always said that Half-Life 3 would only be released when they had a game engine breakthrough to justify it...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 19. The AI safety/capability relationship has always been ironic, and will continue to be so. No solution there but luck and speed. 20. Overfitting, reproducibility, hand-tweaking aren't the biggest intellectual fraud in AI—but the denial of trial & error and serendipity.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 16. The US continues to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with visas; UK interesting BATNA... 17. Do you do research & need compute? Give TRC a shot, seriously, it's <5min signup form & TPus have gotten a lot easier to use w/PyTorch. 18. There's plenty of room at the top.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 11. AI investment numbers are at least a bit misleading because so much of it is zero-sum compensation inflation 12. People still can't 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 like big models. 13. Stability GPUs go brrr 14. Genetics is great & all, but still too slow 15. Every year SF is shabbier
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 7. gain-of-lambda-function research continues apace 8. if Musk isn't at least a little bipolar, I'll eat my hat 9. "What does everyone know that I don't?" Thus far for music/GANs/chip sanctions/emergence/████-███████: nothing good. 10. Groq is doomed.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 4. self-driving cars+, Waymo LLC− 5. My travel life got abruptly better when I learned "baggage check" included non-airplane things. 6. the future is even more unevenly distributed than usual—even in their subfield, most people are way behind on their reading
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 Learnings: 1. it may not be possible to genericize nouns by pluralizing without sounding like a douches 2. AI timelines −1y if you are not named 'Gabe' (also: prediction market & timeline discussions−−) 3. the avalanche is caused by both the snowfall 𝘢𝘯𝘥 the last snowflake
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 You're either cool enough to have a job that will send you or cool enough to not have a job, sorry, I don't make the rules.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 26 Spend 24 hours flying to the land of dropbears and dropspiders? 🤔 How about 'never'? I can pencil that in now.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 25 Change of plans: Biergarten apparently is closed so I will meet everyone there and we can go to the little park next to it since the weather is nice.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 25 Do *you* want to hear execs like Cook or Ballmer go on stage and shout about 'blobs! Huge tracts of blobs! We have the biggest blobs in the world, to blob your business into the blob new age!' Hm. Maybe that wouldn't be so bad, actually...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 25 You say that, but you're not the one who has to try to explain at parties that you write about chonkies and trying to understand how chonking too hard could lead to absolute units madladding humanity into can't-evening and everyone should realize it's srs bsns.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 25 (Look, I'm not saying terminology merits all the bikeshedding it inevitably receives; just that your life is now quantifiably better because I went with "the scaling hypothesis" instead of the alternatives like "the big blob of compute" or "one chonky is all you need".)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 25 (But is DT bad at generalization in the way that all Transformers were bad at generalization until they weren't, or in a different way?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 23 Why does that prove too much? Isn't that exactly how these models became of interest with all their capabilities, and became worth either RL or data finetuning further?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 It can only copy the human raters with high accuracy by learning what the human raters want, creating a capability which can be prompted simply by the 'human rating'. No separate model, additional head, classification loss, PPO pain, KL constraints, degeneracy, multiple phases...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 My point there is that evaluation *is* generation. Whatever evaluation raters generate, that's just more text to generate. I don't find it obvious that 'handing that generated text to a surrogate reward model to then blackbox optimize the generative model' >> 'more generative'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 DT can condition on desired performance, including perf never observed, so it is not simply imitating or stitching together expert trajectories. Also, it's not like InstructGPT is 'superhuman' so that's not even a requirement here.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 I don't buy that here because there is no principled difference in the generative setting, eg Decision Transformer. Use of rankings or comparison is just more data to predict; anyway, lots of InstructGPT examples are clearly '1 right answer' and classic supervised learning.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 It could, but why on earth would they have dropout or similar mechanisms activated? They have not historically screwed up the API like that, and checking that you return the same answers for the same input+model is one of the first tests anyone would set up for the API.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 Not sure about. The former has a lot of practical advantages and is scalable, smoothly turning into Decision Transformer. While no one wants to mess with PPO, and RLHF comes with its own deep problems like completions collapsing to dull single possibilities or adversarial optim.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 What is this, a suggestion for an ant researcher? I'd need, like, at least 8 times more free time to replicate that!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 A point that would've made sense in 2012 when people were amazed by the obvious success of the marijuana campaign... but forget to update that it's now a decade later, and it's absurd. No one could imagine success—after *11* states had medical marijuana?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 Ah, but is Ilya tweeting about AGI because OA work is going so well it's urgent to prepare the ground, or because it's going poorly and he's bored and rather enjoys trolling everyone on Twitter, or neither and he just enjoys trolling? 🤔 Admit it, you might do the same thing too.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 (As much as I would love something as wild as 'ants have a quasi-language', that's almost as far into "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" territory as 'ants passing the mirror-test'. (Maybe further? Hm...))
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 Yes, that's one of the things I am thinking of. All of the travel & anthropology accounts of non-First-Worlders having much better smell skills, and then an experimental demonstration that getting better isn't even *that* hard, we First Worlders just don't do even that much.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 I remembered that a bunch of states had already legalized medical marijuana in 2002 and so Agrawal's claim was absurd; I did have to look up the exact number of ~11, yes, but that's what keyboard shortcuts & WP are for.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 (oh no so the availability was better than that of video game consoles in 2020, however could anyone have survived such tragic first world problems or have thought that marijuana legalization was winning, it is a mystery)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 Our olfaction is apparently way worse. Everything is scented/perfumed, sanitized, food is safe/fresh/preserved, bodies washed, etc.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 That sounds kinda useless. Wouldn't people rather just use the tags directly instead of groping around with prompts?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 I don't know if they explicitly do it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's implicit. It's often cited in leaky or metered paywalls, and definitely more than 1 econ modeling paper has treated adblocking that way. (Tho I don't read them too carefully because generally no data.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 20 And Canute ordered the tide back, yes. Resorting to sending goons in to medical clinics is what 'losing' looks like. A winner would never be forced to such a resort, having won long before.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 Reading about the sheer totalitarian brutality of the American WWI treatment of German-Americans and any kind of dissent, the level of censorship and jingoism, is extraordinary. The US wasn't even in any danger! Nothing during eg the Iraq War or COVID came close.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 People were speculating the price cuts were due to quantization or something on the backend. If they heavily quantized it, then GPU nondeterminism might be greatly amplified?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 But yeah, for most practical purposes, what a critic might deem 'memorization' is all that is necessary. People who want to generate anime images for art or games etc probably don't care much about prompts like 'a horse riding an astronaut' - they want astronauts riding horses.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 I expect larger models (esp larger text models) to resolve it. If you don't want to pay the scaling tax, you can try to hand-engineer it in. Synthetic datasets to encode relationships into images can probably push much smaller models into eliciting the desired reasoning skills.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 The papers explain how causal attribution can go wrong and simply cannibalize or steal credit or yield spurious results. These problems are admitted by ad sellers who say they've fixed them... tacitly admitting the old numbers were bogus and fooling everyone - so why believe now?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 Yes, but you both *do* use adblocking and watch YT... That's price discrimination/self-selection in action. And Google has done some of the research on ad avoidance, so presumably YT has not forgotten it and found that those ads are at an optimal misery point.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 P&G is one of the sources for the ad critiques, and in any case, considering the extreme variance, I wouldn't expect to see much of a broad correlation. The effect size cannot be that large.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 (That feels a little creepy and insulting, tbh. I liked Ross, even if he tried to do some terrible things and screwed over a lot of people with his mistakes.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 The scenes aren't very weird, so he would say that's just the memorization at work. (Tags don't encode arbitrary relationships well, they are bag-of-words or pre-specified relationships, so it'd be hard to use the hard-image benchmarks or his challenge examples.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 One thing I have learned the past two years is that bees are smarter than I realize. Not just play, but stuff like counting. (I am still waiting for some hostile replications of the ant mirror-test before I start taking *that* too seriously, however.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 If you want to make the diffusion more sensitive to higher-order like curvature, could you build that in w/o 2nd order by a pixelwise loss for the destination pixel, similar to ? So at every denoising instance,the model is pulled towards next denoised+true.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 Note that with new methods like DreamBooth or retrieval methods on Stable Diffusion-class and better models, transfer learning may require <10 samples, and may be doable simply by prompting various keywords or similar author names to find the target artist/style 'in between' them
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 Depends. Have you heard of the 'dodo bird verdict'? If not, I think a lot of people would like to make an appropriately-phrased bet with you...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 19 Or possibly something morally equivalent to a lr drop - maybe a warmup hyperparam or a moving average somewhere. (I like 'emergence' as much as anyone, but that the curves look less wiggly is pretty suspicious. Don't think things like the induction bump usually look like that.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 🤷 Not sure how lucrative ads to teen girls would've been - after all, they already were buying all the Beatles' stuff. And I know network advertising in that era was typically pre-sold in large blocks in advance, so probably the advertiser neither knew nor cared.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 You can argue if they hate ads as much as they claim (I don't think they do, I was shocked the effects are even as large as 10 or 20%), but they do clearly have revealed preferences against ads per se.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 'Targeting'? On the Ed Sullivan show? One of the most famously universally watched pieces of Americana, for the whole family? Not quite sure what you have in mind there. Those seem about as targeted as possible to be for such an audience.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 Bad statistics, universally shared folk psychology intuitions, minimal evolutionary pressure, and especially internal principal-agent problems of the sort you've written about many times eg the excess of mergers.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 Sounds very wholesome. Everyone needs some flour to bake with, and clean clothes. Would you have rather had instead ads on how 9 of 10 doctors prefer Lucky Strikes smokes?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 Yes! John Backus took me there a while ago. It was very impressive. (Albeit in a "look at all the things you can't use or play with because you're just visiting" sorta way...)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 In randomized experiments of ads, people *do* stop watching entirely, and the buying effects are also extremely small. I've linked you both literatures on this.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 18 I'll be in SF next Sunday afternoon (2022-10-23) & probably Monday, maybe Tuesday, if anyone wants to hang out. Suggestions for new/unusual things to do also welcome.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 17 (I feel a little schadenfreude that even professionally-edited Google PR months in the making still cannot correctly spell "LaMDA", thereby suffering my pain. Don't call it a grave typo—it's the future you chose.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 17 You should tweet some fake prompts at some point, just to see who has, like me, given up distinguishing impossible from possible prompts.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 17 Indeed, but how? The dirty secret of dating apps seems to have always been that they have little idea who will click (), and function mostly to get people to go on dates at all. So they are vital, like oxygen, but not having any clear effects...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 17 This is a good question to pose people who think self-attention/Transformers are magic pixie dust and alternatives like MLPs couldn't beat them: if Transformers like 175b are 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 almost entirely MLPs by FLOPS, why are you certain the self-attention is irreplaceable?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 17 (I would also note that even if this is 100% true at face-value with no caveats, it's still not an answer to the question of 'is Jewish elite dominance decreasing', as there is more to life than academia, and elite patterns have changed a lot eg tech.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 17 I don't see how that gets you a five-fold collapse in 30 years (ie. <1 academic-generation). Other things sound more likely: changes in response patterns (like the supposed dectupling or whatever of LGBT over the same period), hiring patterns, sampling frame...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 17 After 51 CPU-core-days on my Threadripper, 𝘭 = 133,787,000 turns out to be $6,038.22 vs the √𝘭 approximation of $6038.78162 for a difference of $0.56 or a percentage error of 0.009%. Yeah, I'm going to say that it is a square root and no need to try to calculate further.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 16 (Also worth remembering that "attacks only get better"/"sampling can show the presence of knowledge not the absence": capabilities never go away or get worse, and whatever the *current* quality of samples, people will be learning how to do better ones for a long time to come...)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 16 It's been 13 days since launch and Pixiv is reporting >36k 'works', which can have dozens of images in each, so easily >100k images? Capital is a complement to labor until it becomes a substitute. It's quite something to see all that GPU capital go brrrr once past the threshold.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 16 The current diffusion hierarchical approaches would lend themselves well to iterative AI edits: a tree of frames, and you just edit a frame, clamp it, re-diffuse parent frames, and diffuse back through the rest of the movie, propagating edits, until the whole thing stabilizes.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 16 A probability like 2% across an entire phenome means larger deviations are guaranteed. (How many thousands of variables does UKBB measure? And the # of human diseases runs as many thousands as you care to define) Plus, you need to calculate the tail risk of event, not percentile.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 16 Thoughts on how 'good design' pays off: One example: Eliezer Yudkowsky gets a lot of criticism, good & bad, unsurprisingly. But surprisingly, many people misspell it with 'i' (despite big visual difference)... and yep, those are invariably bad criticisms.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 Ah, that makes more sense. I'm not *too* surprised by that because IIRC even the original residual paper observes that residual layers are often additive and can be dropped randomly and don't form a clean low-level -> high-level hierarchy like one likes to imagine.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 Think of the consequences of a critical node, already teetering over bankruptcy, when a bunch of employees leave literally overnight, orders are canceled, exports/imports abruptly impossible. They shut down. Now everyone who depended on them suddenly can't produce anything...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 From a systems perspective, the timing isn't going to get better later, and the economic crisis is a force-multiplier: chip is an ecosystem, and if you can attack it hard enough at a low point, you may bring the entire thing down, force complete liquidation and permanent exodus.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 (It's a little funny thinking back to then and spending months on GANs and making Danbooru20xx, and telling people, "just you wait! in 5-10 years, we'll be making human-level anime images & videos with this stuff!" "So, how well does it work now?" "er well it'll get better ok.")
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 Hm, a lot of potential here for using blackbox methods instead: define a bunch of SVG vector art gears and then optimize their locations and parameters for the face and subsequent animation, instead of smooshy pixel-level gears.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 Again, you simply wait for a fluctuation which provides a vacuum around it, which may be much more unlikely, but again, happens indefinitely often (and you won't observe the crashed-in brains at all if they don't exist long enough for observer-moments).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 My understanding is that brains can survive a second or two conscious without any oxygen/blood-flow, so in a fluctuation large enough to give rise to a brain surrounded by a vacuum (which will happen indefinitely many times), a brain would be conscious for ~1.5s.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 I think the PR by emad & SD about thinking of the models as 'search engines', while true in an abstract sense like Borges's library, is catastrophically bad PR and probably responsible for why a lot of laymen think it's just literally searching & copying images - he says so!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 15 No, because 'echo' is dumb. It's not even a hack, it's working exactly as both designed & intended. There are a bazillion more interesting hacks, like 4chan manipulating votes on a poll so the initials spell out a slur, or something.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 (That is, the AI safety challenge is not to imagine in 2022 how inner-monologue could be dangerous, but to imagine it in 2019.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 I wouldn't go quite that far. It was a tradeoff, definitely. But for future scale-ups, Stability should probably be more careful, and less restrictive, about their filtering.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 (I think the quality jumps of Waifu Diffusion & NovelAI, and the blind spots in SD like Pokemon, vindicate this view: SD is not *so* good that it only needs to locate characters. It has a lot of learning left to do.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 Yeah, it's been frustrating watching Tay just enter the It Is Known stage of AI ethics, but also it is now so mythologized (on the basis of some throwaway media reporting) that based on my tanks work, most people will never believe you even if you get the original programmers.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 (Supposedly JPEG does support CIE LAB, but I wasn't able to get ImageMagick to spit out a JPEG which it reported to use LAB rather than sRGB, and figuring out what's going wrong there is beyond me.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 Impressive how there's NovelAI samples everywhere now. I've been checking in on AIBooru (NSFW) every few days and it's up to 3k images now and increasing in quality/diversity as people explore prompts. And it's still objectively a pretty bad model!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 (Yeah, I deleted them all and set up some rewrites. Abstracts look substantially more readable now that there's less techno-babble hype.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 You wouldn't mistake them for real photos. Makes me wonder if conditioning is a crutch. Perhaps training should anneal from conditional to unconditional? Better latent space, more generalization, handle weirder prompts...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 14 Probably impossible, given that even at GMU, Hanson (PhD, publications) only got tenure because, as he describes it, the other faculty were pissed about the media sliming the 'terrorism futures' project (which we know from later IARPA work would've been useful).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 13 Well, that's what you would ablate by deleting each one and looking at a set of samples, and seeing how minimal (and thus, educational & reusable) a prompt you can get. Instead of cargo-culting 'greg rutkowski masterpiece trending' everywhere.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 13 Yep. 'I worked through it line by line and there was some non-zero probability it would answer literally any question outside the one line by line dialogue, you couldn't actually move blocks lol' is... not how it was described in any of my textbooks or Hofstadter's GEB, for sure.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 13 (For any prompt this long, I think it should be ablated because probably at least several of those phrases aren't doing anything.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 13 (Very cute, grasshopper, but you realize Takahata was criticizing the antithesis of Buddhism just as much as the thesis of the aristocracy, right?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 13 Very common. Unfortunately, with rare books, much less alpha because individuals can't just chuck them into a debind-then-sheet-fed-scanner-to-Libgen pipeline for relatively low cost. Have to leave that stuff to organized efforts like IA/GB with proper camera-scan setups.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 12 First Pokemon, now geese? We must declare war on the esthetic filter because clearly peace was never an option.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 12 T-I/DB already failed on Canadian geese? OK, that's surprising. I wonder what happened there? The esthetic filter really hates geese?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 12 I suggest "promptie", by analogy to "skiddie". People who can only ask the AI for stuff because they have no independent skills to program or edit. "That Jack is such a promptie, he can't even fix that hand or finetune SD without the Colab."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 12 I am way behind on inner-monologue literature, but do we have self-critique/refutation yet, like prompting it for explanations of why an erroneous answer is wrong & the right one? Testing with InstructGPT, I got 2⁄3 working, so PaLM might be in the convincingly-working regime...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 12 Remarkably, Khoth & FeepingCreature kept on with the C versions & got it down to 0.5s (!) to calculate the exact value of 𝘭=100,000 cards. (My 𝘭=133,787,000 run is still going.) This lets us confirm the random-walk conjecture that its value is pretty much exactly = 0.5×√𝘭.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 I have no idea. Algo just popped up her tweet and I was fascinated by her and her many fav/rts' belief that there was literally no career option for a Western women other than being a housewife in 1972, and how that seemed like this sort of logarithmic compression of history.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 (OK but seriously, what makes Musk Musk? I found him easier to understand when I started to think of him as—like many entrepreneurs—an untreated-because-so-high-functioning manic-depressive, complete with world-peace plans during manic phases. So that, or moral equivalent.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 The 3 hacker genders: 1. "Can I run 𝘋𝘰𝘰𝘮 on it?" 2. "Can I run P2P on it?" 3. "Can I run NetBSD^WLinux on it?"
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 −50ya from the '90s is a good comparison! −50ya from 2022, however, to 1972 (and incrementing) is not; eg RBG was already on her (first) tenured law professorship at that point. −30ya likewise: from '90s, to '60s, lots of useful comparisons. 2022 to... 1992? Not so much.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 Thanks. My first reaction is: these are a lot worse than conditional. You set text guidance to 0, you didn't just use a "" prompt? Any idea why they are so bad? I know that guidance improves the quality but I didn't think the difference would be *this* large.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 Yes, one would expect a commercial chess site to be very reluctant to accuse professionals playing in real-money tournaments of cheating & expel them. Their bias is towards sticking their heads in the sand, not to accusing at the drop of a hat!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 Meh. That's not novel: people were doing that with AI Dungeon 2 Dragon back in like July 2020 (discovering inner-monologue that way, incidentally, long before the researchers reinvented it), so well over 2 years ago.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 11 Randomness is pretty hard; I know in MCMC stuff, it can take a lot of random steps to 'wash out' any initial bias or starting point. You also have no idea what the latent space connectivity or dynamics are once you stop sampling from the training/generative process.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Really part of the same hack. Also not sure how much people care about that? I haven't followed NovelAI text stuff in detail, but didn't seem astounding and seemed more or less a 'AID2 if they hadn't screwed it up'?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Come to think of it, is this the first hacked/leaked neural net model that anyone really cares about using? SD 'leaked' a week or two early but that hardly counts; the AID2 incidents didn't leak the GPT-3 models; nothing else comes to mind.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 The latent diffusion people are rederiving _z_ and the progressive distillation are reinventing progressive growing, so I assume next up is data-augmentation diffusion and auxiliary critics. 😉 But since time is a flat circle, hopefully diffusions will be much better this time.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Fair use is a defense against copyright infringement; if it's transformative, then there's no infringement you need any defense for. (Simply affecting market prospects is not definitive - copyright is not a UBI or sinecure. Artists aren't owed jobs, if there is a competitor.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 So... what are the learned prompts? They should be text and readable, and presumably very interesting to look at and modify.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 I saw nothing about using an offline WP dump or anything like that. By WP API, you mean PaLM autonomously accesses the live MediaWiki APIs over the Internet?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 It's a good thing to know, but unfortunately, it's obscure so it'll cause you various problems. For example, until recently, the W3C HTML checker would warn you if you linked to #​top because it thought that anchor was undefined.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 (I also doubt that it would have the benefits you expect on AI capabilities, for the reasons we discussed before: much of the relevant data would not be copyrighted or would be already licensed, assuming it was not just ignored entirely.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 I mean, if you can get a law through US copyright narrowing transformative use and redefining AI training to be copying, then yeah sure, I will agree that they are then legally equivalent and thus morally equivalent in that respect. I don't think that's going to happen, though.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 A very loose lowerbound of several percent for something that should be, and was believed to be, ~0%, and the rather casual way in which this information came out long afterwards, is quite alarming. Would you adopt the same blase attitude towards, say, DNA/wrongful executions?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 A legal difference is always a moral difference, because higher-order effects are important, and that difference is always relevant when someone is claiming they are identical (ie. have no differences at all).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Yes... One potential problem I see is finetuned models: I don't know if *any* of the finetuners have made a point of dropping out the embedding unless they copied code which did that for them. So this might be true of SD but then finetuned models lose their unconditionality... 🤔
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 (lman, you think you're being very clever and insightful, but you're failing at the first step when you specify that it is an exact replacement and it's just a derivative work from then on out.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 (He's busy and probably wouldn't know a detail like that.) I asked and she says SD *was* trained with dropout, where 'zeroed out' is the CLIP embedding of "", so sampling "" *should* be equivalent to random unconditional samples from the full SD distribution.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 I think this might depend on what SD did for the embedding and/or classifier guidance. Did they drop it out during training as some do? If so, then I *think* zeroing it out and then diffusing would in fact be supposed to be a pure random sample from the generative distribution.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 I dunno. How random *is* that? I've seen plenty of so-called 'random samples' go wrong and not be all that random. (Like our anime BigGAN was being sampled completely wrong and we didn't figure it out for a long time.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Hm, well, I'd expect two vertical regions for RNN small-compute Transformer large-compute at small n for RNN (inductive bias eventually crippled by history penalty), passing to CNN-below-Transformer for the rest, giving a 2x2 look. What's your intuition how it'd look?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 That would start every sample at the same point (right?) and latent space is big, so I would be skeptical such a biased sample would after some kicking give me the equivalent of sampling a multivariate gaussian for a GAN's _z_.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Q. Does anyone have a batch of random samples from Stable Diffusion I can browse? I mean completely random, just random samples from its distribution—not variations on a prompt or a random walk from a prompt or multiple decodes from a prompt, which is all everyone seems to have?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 (An increasingly awkward comparison after Magnus was beaten by a cheater and just told everyone last week that detecting cheating is routine among the top 100, and they are all let back in.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 I bet it's to make handling key-chords easier. If it comes with a canonical sort, then the API user can simply write a sorted literal to match it instead of messing with set equality or sorting. `If x == [Control, Command, V]`, instead of every permutation of CCV emitted.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 I disagree. Such legislation and changes do not drop out of the sky, and the changes precede the legislation: groups gain power first. When they do drop out of the sky like the endless lists of rights enumerated in the USSR constitution & other socialist states, they are useless.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Yes, that's what I meant. You're gonna have to bite this bullet at some point or those texture artifacts are never going away. If the VAE encoding is suboptimal, the model can't fix it because it can only shuffle around and rearrange the same suboptimal 'pixels'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 The discussion by the author, and all the women quoted, indicates it was routine, common, unremarkable, and not special. You would not be surprised or offended if you were only 1 of 10k privileged women out of >100,000k women and ran athwart default assumptions; so, they weren't.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Yes, but that still doesn't explain the paradox itself because you might just assume that in very misogynist societies, the girls wouldn't be allowed to go to college at all, as indeed was true for most of history.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 On the contrary, it makes clear repeatedly that many women had their own CC & there was no ban. I don't know how you can read its many vignettes about eg women being annoyed by being expected to give up their single CCs for joint CCs on marriage and conclude 'no women had CCs'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 If it was American culture, the gender egalitarian paradox wouldn't be a general phenomenon applicable even more strongly to eg the Scandis.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Yeah, the inverse correlation has drawn a lot of commentary. The usual explanation seems to be that STEM degrees serve as a kind of "mrs. degree" in those countries because a 'real' STEM degree is socially acceptable for women to go get; thus, inequality drives STEM equality.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 And obviously Greenberg was referring to it because it was 2 years later, the only thing that comes up when people discuss it, and most people operate under a "if it's not mandatory, it's forbidden" framework where that's an ordinary mistake; nor does he deny it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 10 Look it up. First, common sense: why would ban *discrimination* if reality was *no* women had credit cards? You don't 'ban discrimination' against marijuana, you 'legalize' marijuana. Second, lots of coverage at the drop of a google eg "Credit-Ability for Women", Garrisopn 1976.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 Substack is only a 'great reading experience', for low values of 'great', because everything else is so terrible and they haven't experienced any pressure. But every time I have to delete the 'subscribe' screen blocker popping up at random, I think, 'Medium used to be OK too'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 Obvious presentation would be a 'This estimate uses: A B C D E' union, then on each page hyperlink to the source for used ones, and dim out unused ones.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 I assume that the OA legal structure isn't the *same*, if only because of the whole capped-returns stuff they came up with for OA specifically because of the possibility of extreme returns.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 It's something of a beginner vs poweruser divide: a page is packing in way more than a standard LW2 is, but also has, despite my best efforts, a steeper learning curve and more visual elements. 🤷
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 I would phrase it as 'weaker', at least in terms of presented information. Not 'simpler' - LW2 has a ton of features like editors or chat or crossposint which doesn't need - just weaker, in that everything like popups does less & is easier/simpler.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 Yes, it's now clearly real, too many people have tried it and want to keep using it (leading to the AUTOMATIC1111 drama). It could be trojaned, but by this point also enough people have tried it that someone would've noticed that too.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 The non-profit still exists. It pretty much has to. You can't just flip a non-profit into a for-profit and gift all the share-ownership of its assets to insiders. It's not that unfamiliar a structure. Every time you bite into a Hershey's Chocolate you're acquainted with it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 (It's especially fineprint because one would stop reading after the bold headline version listing the markets it's sourcing from. I read the page and found the information I was looking for, centered, highlighted, bold, linked. Why would I have kept reading into the fineprint?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 9 Yes, they did in the USA. There was no law banning credit cards for women; many routinely had cards, even excluding household financial units. Lenders could choose to give women CCs or not. What you are mistakenly referring to is a law banning lenders from choosing not to.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 (Not that the small # of markets, possibly just 1 (PredictIt), matters here, since they all have long-shot bias, and whether sourced from 1 or 5, the Harris probability will still be very low.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 And, as I already said, that is useless because that is clearly not what they are doing since Polymarket doesn't even *have* a market, as far as I can tell, for winning the US election that they *could* be pulling odds from. That was the first one I checked, and I stopped there.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 Seriously, it's terrible. Here's like 144 uses in Arxiv abstracts, and not a single one means anything but puffery which can be deleted with zero loss of meaning. In fact, aside from maybe 5 instances, it remains just as grammatical as before. Utter misleading waste of space...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 If I was going to defend the position that Jon Stewart was a good comedian, my argument would not be that an episode of his comedy had 'the progressive position', but that it was funny.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 In the universe where Harris somehow gets the nomination despite being a nonentity with near-zero chance right now, something amazing must have happened to her prospects, like Biden keeling over dead. This is semi-interesting, but doesn't mean she's actually going to get elected.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 (Why waste my time in search-and-replace trying to disambiguate between the 3 real meanings when even the authors would often have to admit that they aren't claiming any of them & it's just the style of Arxiv abstracts to use that word endlessly?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 Could be worse, though, at least there are 3 meanings there. In Arxiv abstracts, I've noticed that 'significan*' get used most times as mere copy-pasted puffery where it doesn't mean anything. I've begun seriously considering just deleting it automatically from Arxiv abstracts.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 (Concrete example: the Waymo simulations of fatal accident scenarios to benchmark how many their full stack would've avoided. I'd expect that sort of expert knowledge engineering to take the same people *about* the same amount of time if they left... once they built the AI, ofc!)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 Self-driving cars isn't an area where I'd expect some cheap ideas shared between companies to help much. It seems much more infrastructure/code/data-heavy: vast databanks of very rare accident scenarios to benchmark your fleet on in silico endlessly, eg. Can't take that with you.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 Yeah, it's become a countersignaling thing for elite leftists to talk about how, now everyone's seen it, _Hamilton_ is overrated and overpriced and something something racism (just invert all the previous talking points about its brilliance).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 (Thankfully, like _Hamilton_ not being that good, you just have to wait a few years. The owl of Minerva etc.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 It was both, more or less. He and Colbert could be decent during the GWB years, but as soon as Obama was elected, all the comedians died (despite Obama continuing so many GWB policies!). They could go after the out-group, but not the in-group.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 It's tricky, though, because the scaling laws lit also shows that models were often being trained much too long (eg that RL paper last week), because of a default assumption you should try to reach convergence. The key part is the *more data*, seems - which is usually skipped.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 (No, it was, it's just that the $1t+ of cleanup costs is off-books for the Project eg we're still cleaning up Hanover because there's dozens of tanks of serious shit no one knows how to deal with and so they just sit there in the ground.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 (I am impressed by $100b of R&D. I'm not impressed by $10b of R&D done 5 times over and then another 5 R&Ds based on organizational sunk costs that no one would do when starting from a blank sheet today.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 8 I tend to suspect a lot of that car research was DOA and completely wasted. Anything based on a lineage out of 200s-era DARPA competitors seems like a dead end today. Plus, *huge* amounts of reduplication due to total secrecy about everything.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 7 A superintelligent AI plucked from the space of random programs is as morally valuable (or esthetically interesting, or...) as the output of a random page of x86 assembler opcodes. A non-random one, like one built by the Aztecs, could be arbitrarily bad.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 7 But I expect most DM compensation is in the form of dollar-denominated Alphabet stock, and most of the technical expenditure is for electricity, which they would be purchasing in the USA (and if not, the EU energy cost increases will be relocating their cloud workloads ASAP).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 7 Hard to say. After all, it's easy to spend tons of R&D with nothing to show for it (especially in DL...). Doing the right thing is much more important than doing expensive things; nothing so costly in R&D as bad taste combined with insistence on being penny-wise pound-foolish.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 7 That requires a framing that the $4.5t was necessary and not the result of deliberate choices in terms of funding research/prevention, such as refusal to do challenge trials so vaccine rollouts were delayed. (Plus, the relief was super incompetent even strictly on econ grounds.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 7 Well, go spend an hour applying SD to a photo or video of your house (putting the effort consumption up front so no one can miss it), and see if you can get millions of YouTube video views and Smithsonian and BBC etc articles on it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 7 A good example of art as conspicuous consumption/leisure. The lack of interest any of the coverage has in looking at the doodles up close or for more than an instant shows that everyone is only interested in the sheer profligate waste of human time/labor. If it was done by AI...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 7 I'm not sure I'd even give it that much. There are loads of pidgins or smaller or simpler alphabets or scripts. Just pure network effects.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 A bigger model. Xin et al 2022 is a familiar Bitter-Lesson methodology result (eg recommender papers): the fancy algorithms reporting increasingly better perf over the years are getting better perf... it's just all from more n/compute/param, not the researchers' hard work.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 I didn't see any discussion or allusions indicating how the hack was done. (Might be more clues in the torrent, but I didn't download it.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 I suppose. Presumably you could compare the ckpts and only parameter values should differ and no new Python op codes involved. Or load it with Python libraries intended for this, I assume someone's written pkl sanitizers.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 [kneejerk response to Nat: "Oh, OA already is."] Now the interesting question is, how much do those fluent errors matter for training not ASR but pure *text* models? Machine translation and LM work in general seems like it'd suggest the harm is minimal, & the bigger data better.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 Nah, they're mediocre at best. As symbols, they have flaws like several being equivalent under symmetries, wildly varying stroke styles/counts, inefficient to write. As phonetic encoding, lacking sounds, illogical, parts obsolete. Lots of better shorthands or scripts like Hangul.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 (It's especially funny because the hacker doesn't sound like he's angry about 'theft' or 'copying'. He's just cheap.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 Today's anime AI drama: it appears 4chan may've hacked & leaked in a torrent 's model-checkpoints & website code? No clear confirmation in the threads yet. (I'd be wary of running since as a loudmouth anon points out, ckpts=code.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 No. Name a correlation metric where it's correlated. Pearson? Spearman? Mutual information? If you can, you've broken it.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 As in, "The output of an encryption algorithm is uncorrelated with its inputs, and uncausalated with stock market returns."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 6 (Eh. I think they're substantially worse - or if they are, they are only reasonably comparable within a very, very narrow domain. (ProGAN could do faces great, but doesn't get you to Imagen.) TADNE is much better, and compare TADNE samples to Waifu Diffusion or NovelAI.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 Well, no one's going to write '1986 36ya'. Visually nonsensical, nor do even scientists write like that. But the long-forms they use like '1986 (36ya)' aren't going to catch on either. I also don't intend to write it out explicitly given it changes; it'd be a plugin, of course.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 This raises an interesting point: apples are supported by 'clubs' of patented apples. Why not new bananas? Patentable, and the giant quasi-monopolies would be able to reap almost all of the gains. Are they just too fat and lazy to try to improve their monocultures?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 Nah, they're easy to use. They are some of the most basic formatting there is, supported by every markup language in common use, and as long as Unicode is supported, you can still hack it as I demonstrate there. The markup is usually short too: '~36ya~' in Markdown, eg.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 (One can speculate on what's going on there. I suspect it's a mix of 'context collapse' in all eras of media available intermixed, power laws, and extremely lengthy careers - after all, how long ago could The Beatles have been, really, if Paul McCartney is *still* concerting?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 Like, does Tom Cruise in _Top Gun_ 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 37 years ago? If I mention '_Scooby Do_ started in 1969', does that 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 53 years ago? Do Top Gun/Scooby-Doo 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 twice as close in time as Top Gun/you? They still don't to me, and I just did the arithmetic!
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 Another subtle cognitive distortion I've been noticing: date intervals or durations. It seems like people are increasingly losing their grip on intuitive temporal durations, thinking in a Perpetual Now, and are increasingly surprised when I tuck in an explicit 'X years ago'.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 Yes, the analysis is an amazing read. And the author is a college student who became a hardware guy as an outgrowth! I also thought the Dream Minecraft one was interesting as an intro into Bayesian reasoning for lots of youngsters, and his fans' non-reaction to his confession.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 Yeah, that's pretty crazy. My first guess is that it's because people namecheck or mention Engelbart all the time, but usually won't formally cite 'Engelbart 1963' (much less some sort of 'Engelbart 1968' for the Mother of All Demos). Bet something like Google Books hits sensible
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 IIRC, the rationale was actually to get an updated version. I assume they also keep it continuously updated by polling IDs/RSS or something.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 What they want is him to be forced to buy it, then sell it at a loss, so they can enjoy the schadenfreud twice and then have a reliable fallback for the next few years "Elon Musk paid $0 in taxes in 202x!" when the outrage wells run dry.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 5 I kinda want the Will Smith meme now 'SMITH: "Can a North American river otter derive backpropagation? Does a river otter know how semiconductors work?" OTTER: "Do 𝘺𝘰𝘶?" SMITH [in tears]: ""'
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 "The report says dozens of grandmasters have been caught cheating on the website, including four of the top-100 players in the world who confessed." whoa 😱
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 But now that we can see how much PaLM can do, and have directions like Gato/Multi-Game-Transformer and startups like Adept, scaling DRL is becoming more relevant.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 DRL was already over-invested in if you look at the compute-history graphs: projects like AG/A0 were trend-breakingly expensive, while having no practical use. Meanwhile, vision-language models do lots of emergent and useful stuff, and would empower DRL agents as foundations.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 No. It's fun but I'm not convinced, or if I was half-convinced then, years of watching intellectuals be politically craven on both sides of the aisle has disabused me of the notion there's anything inexplicable about a lickspittle Machiavelli requiring such an explanation.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 I see. Confusing, but it is what it is. I guess the tree search self-play does make it very unclear, compared to eg ALE episodes, what the equivalent of 'tokens' would be in trying to distinguish between those scalings.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 So they were too small under both Kaplan & Chinchilla scaling laws? (I'm left a little confused what is proven in what settings given the factors like only 2-layers and the problems being small enough to reach optimality etc.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 Of course you can tell them, and I'm sure they did just that. People make comparisons all the time. "We want to make a movie like X, but better, with blackjack and hookers." "Z is like X meets Y! You in?"
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 You're the one proposing one of the largest expansions of government-enforced monopolies ever, I think you ought to rotate on it a lot more than you have. No one said the artist's name has to be involved. Consider embeddings. 'disenfranchised' is meaningless rhetoric.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 Yes. All RL agents are extremely unsafe by default, because their entire point is to *do* things, not 'merely' generate data; therefore, anything implying large easy capability gains in RL is much worse than the same news anywhere else.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 OK, so that's nothing like your Ghibli example, then, as I thought. And it also has no real relevance: oh, you can't use their name in the title? Fine, people just won't share their prompts lest it imply endorsement or authorship. Wow, that was easy.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 Really? Enforceable under what grounds? What could Studio Ghibli sue its ex-staff at Studio Ponoc for? (Or Gainax Trigger?)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 Fashion is one of the largest and most influential creative industries in the world, not 'an edge case'. Mickey Mouse is a recognizable character and *not* a style. 'Steamboat Willy style' is instantly recognizable... and owned by no one. Unprecedented = giant monopolies bad.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 4 Because it is the most dangerous and also relatively useless place for scaling to hold. It's like discovering that any weed grow farm or Bitcoin mine can synthesize weapons-grade plutonium from ingredients under a kitchen sink.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 3 Leaving aside the dubious sense in which buying stock is actually equivalent to either investment or involvement or effort, you can't buy stock in either, either. You can only buy stock which is like <10% 'Cruise' or 'Waymo' (ie GM or Alphabet).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 3 It's also hard to contribute in a meaningful way from the outside, short of getting hired by Cruise or Waymo. If you or I or Tanaka wanted to contribute 10 hours or $1,000 to Self-Driving Cars™, we would do this... how?
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 3 The sentencing will also always be tainted by the massive (and probably still incompletely-purged) LE corruption. Hard not to feel that played a role in the judge going berserk on Ross...
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 3 (As I have been saying all along, there is - very unfortunately - no good a priori reason to think that scaling laws will not apply to RL just like they apply everywhere else, and the reward vs sample/compute curves available have always indicated as much.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 3 ATTENBOROUGH: "As the parasite matures, its ordinate sacs swell with green fluid. Soon, one day in autumn, a frost will trigger a hormone surge, and it will be time. The parallel sacs burst, seeding the wind with spores that, should they chance upon a host, become… architects."
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 3 Somehow, they didn't feel the need to snub Jennifer Doudna for merely 'implementing' the CRISPR techniques discovered by others (or the cryo-EM triple Nobel or...).
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 2 I spent plenty of time using darcs & Mercurial to collaborate with many others, and never had a fraction of the trouble I have collaborating with a single person on code in Git. No, it's just the worst DVCS.
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 1 Look, if they 𝘥𝘪𝘥𝘯’𝘵 approve his grant application for field trials of his innovative new "CPR for bats" first aid technique, that would be letting the conspiracy theorists win❗
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 1 (I guarantee you that if a lawsuit dumped the complete texts of Terry Tao for hostile journalists to dunk on, we'd find at least one joke on the level of '5318008'.)
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    • 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern Oct 1 If there's one thing we should've learned by now, it's that everyone sounds dumb in their texts, which is why Warzel conspicuously fails to mention any comparisons, merely comparing against some imaginary 'actually-impressive' moving-goalpost set of texts.
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Engagements
Showing 31 days with daily frequency
Engagement rate
3.4%
Oct 31
2.9% engagement rate
Link clicks
4.7K
Oct 31
277 link clicks
On average, you earned 150 link clicks per day
Retweets without comments
1
Oct 31
0 Retweets without comments
On average, you earned 0 Retweets without comments per day
Likes
7.4K
Oct 31
133 likes
On average, you earned 237 likes per day
Replies
493
Oct 31
13 replies
On average, you earned 16 replies per day