ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernFeb 29Not that anyone cares, but I got my flu shot & stocked up today (after watching _Agrippina_ - pretty good and surprisingly ribald production).
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 14Email etiquette:
DON'T: "sorry I'm late but catching up now lol"
- craven
- obvious
- makes recipient mad
DO: "Greetings from the valley of the shadow of death in this, the Plague Year."
- accurate
- serious, sobering
- recipient reflects on triviality of email, work, & life
ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 13Family statuses on FB:
- MIDDLE-AGED: very angry at the governor's temerity for interfering with school graduation ceremonies because of some virus thing
- SEPTUAGENARIAN: posting dank memes about how alcohol must make rednecks immune b/c only few hundred cases in Red states
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 16'Ah, from my "Quarantine Query" series interrogating biopolitics of late globalism. I call it... "The Wait of the Future". The sapling can survive, but after too long before release, is deformed and then dies."
[Gwern, 2020. Mixed media. Cellulose, fly ash, lime, clay, acrylic.] pic.twitter.com/3C0Z60wcS2
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 21I see a lot of hopeful tweets lately about new drug trials and whatnot.
If only science & medicine replicated as well as viruses.
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 11(Matt F. seems to've derived it himself. I'm still surprised that this very simple obvious seeming question doesn't seem to have been already been long addressed in the order statistics literature that anyone seems to know of.)
ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 8@theshawwn has just tested the simplest most obvious thing of just replacing (most of) the convolution layers in a 128px StyleGAN with self-attention, and it does still work with anime faces, so no particular problem there...
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 15Gonna be a lot of time-series papers from corona.
I'd like to precommit to not believing them much: people will be running (& not publishing) tons, & come on, corona didn't do *just* one thing. It didn't make people fatter solely because less activity, they baked & fear-ate etc
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 24Particularly interesting is that each instrument or 'voice' is generated in a single block, so as sampling proceeds, the piece remains the same lengt, but it becomes more complicated as V1 is completed, then V2 is generated to match, then V3 is generated using V2+V2, then V4 etc.
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 11For the case of double-testing of the same point (bivariate exact max), the result is interesting. Someone just provided an exact formula: stats.stackexchange.com/questions/4272β¦ It seems that the correlation functions as a constant-factor boost but asymptotically just 1/n. Counterintuitive!
ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 15"...there is an inverse relationship between ruler duration and the probability of being overthrown, which indicates that ruler duration is largely determined by the probability of being deposed." gwern.net/docs/history/2β¦
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ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 4Alternate history exercise: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Sβ¦ What if instead of killing Saudi Arabia's heir, Brazil's president, South African PM, US First Lady, NZ Labour head, Italian royal..., it took Walt Disney, Friedrich Hayek, FDR, Leo Szilard, Woodrow Wilson, Kaiser Wilhem II...?
ππ΄π’π―π«@gwernMar 4EAG 2020 SF has been officially canceled, and with it my SF trip. π’
(At least I was concerned about coronavirus early enough to not book any hotel or plane ticketsβoption value!)
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