Silk Road forums

Discussion => Newbie discussion => Topic started by: marvinm on July 04, 2013, 12:05 am

Title: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: marvinm on July 04, 2013, 12:05 am
As if the buying and selling of drugs and using the mail system for delivery wasnt a risky enough business unto itself, trying to deal with the drastic fluctuation of bitcoin just takes things entirely to another level.  I love the principals of silk road.  I love that the community seems for the most part to be a team working towards a common goal, and i feel privileged to consider myself a member of said community.  I have bought and sold amongst in black markets for many many years, and we are all aware that this type of trading is always accompanied by substantial risk.  However i am recently forced to contemplate not only the risk of snitches, thieves, spies, thugs, and cops; but now the additional stress of my currency not sustaining its value. 

I remember watching the news while third world countries such as Libya were undergoing rebellion or Iran hit with massive sanctions, and their currencies became instantly worthless and millions of people lost their life saving in the matter of hours because they were unable to convert to a stable currency in a timely manner.  I recall thinking that was a horrible scenario for the masses that wanted nothing to do with the political agenda but were still subject to its repercussions simply because of where they resided: guilty by association.  Granted i do not have my life savings invested in bitcoins, but shit when 10 grand turns into 6 grand in 2 weeks time, it certainly makes an impacting difference in my life.

Anyway, I suppose the best thing to do right now is sit and wait.  Perhaps even invest more?  They say buy low sell high right?  Bitcoins are at $77 usd today, two weeks ago it was $120.  That is 40+%.  Logic tells me that the value is bound to go back up, at least to 100, and if i were to invest now that it would very likely pay off.  However logic is something that often just floats around in the back of my mind.  In the front of mind things function a lot more passionately, and it is difficult to get past the anger of my current loss.  And there is always the possibility of more exchanges being taken down by federal agencies for tax evasion reasons causing the value to fall even further.  My fucking paradox.

Anyway, I am more or less just venting.  I will not be investing.  For me, I think the best route is to sit tight and not spend dollars or bitcoins rightnow and just hope that the market recovers in a timely manner.  A month from now I will either be regretting that I didnt invest, or regretting that I didnt spend.  I will not risk venturing in either direction at this time, therefore minimizing my loss and at the same time minimizing my gains. 

I am interesting in reading others' thoughts on this.  Please, vent with me.
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: Zookie on July 04, 2013, 12:15 am
I completely agree with you here. I was really lucky, just spent all my btc when it was in the 95s I believe. I am really tempted to buying up some btc now as I also believe it's bound to go back up to at least somewhere around the 100s. But hey it could go the other way as well. And also as you said you never know if btc will ever be taken down for what ever reason. It's a risky business indeed, but still a lot better then dealing with people on the streets.
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: SmokesHisBroccoli on July 04, 2013, 12:18 am
I feel your pain.  I've been a member on the road for going on a year and when I started bitcoins were under $10.  Stupid me though I never thought to buy a ton and stock up thinking the price would go up dramatically.  I just spent what I bought at the time lol. 

If you can be patient, I personally feel bitcoin will rebound.  I, however, am not patient.  My strategy for the past few months ever since bitcoin was $200 + and then tanked is to buy bitcoin and spend it as soon as I get it.  I only buy as much bitcoin as I need and I try never to hold onto the bitcoin.  Sure I could profit from holding bitcoin, but in the past few months bitcoin has been trending down down down and without any good news it will probably continue to go down.  There's a entire forum dedicated to bitcoin and there's a speculation section that I poke around on.  Google "bitcoin speculation" and it'll be the top hit.  A lot of people there feel bitcoin will continue to drop before it goes back up.  No one knows for sure.  But $50 or $40 is a real possibility.  But months down the line it'll probably shoot back up into triple digits again.  But I can't emphasize enough that it's all speculation.  It's gambling really.
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: rustykoin on July 04, 2013, 12:34 am
"I remember when a dime bag cost a dime." Haha.

But seriously though, as with anything worth investing in, it's not about the finer details of ups and downs but long run consistency. I'm not into day trading, but it was obvious this was going to happen for awhile, especially since two weeks ago. Consider it an opportunity, and as you pointed out, every opportunity comes with risk. Now with selective domestic banks embracing the currency & making BitCoin "legitimate" it's bound to bounce back like it always does but now on a whole nother level. As pertaining to SR I know everyone is feeling it, but it ain't like this hasn't happened before. Hang in there, pick a time and take your chance. I wouldn't depend solely on it, but as with any stock, diversify your bonds! Keep it optimistic, learn to enjoy the lows of life, because you can always get high. Peace!
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: marvinm on July 04, 2013, 12:34 am
Its interesting the power of a forum.  Conceivably we could actually as a group make a big impact on the value trend.  How many members trade on silk road?  How many dollars or bitcoins are exchanged here?  Its a very large amount.  We come here as a community to talk and trade, but we are not organized by any means.  If somebody were able to take leadership of this community, and make financial decisions for the group, we could do major things.  Imagine silk road not as a black market, but as a corporation.  Do you realize the buying power that we as an organized corporation posses?  As a group we have millions available for trading.  That is enough to impact the global value of the currency. 

Essentially, if we were able to coordinate mass purchases, we could all buy right now at $77 per share, which would instantly stimulate the market because we just dumped a million into it, and then we could turn around and sell sell sell.  Some major trades on wall street are aquired and dumped in a manner of minutes.  Food for thought i suppose. 
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: chiflado on July 04, 2013, 01:01 am
ehh...
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: milliday on July 04, 2013, 03:25 am
Its interesting the power of a forum.  Conceivably we could actually as a group make a big impact on the value trend.  How many members trade on silk road?  How many dollars or bitcoins are exchanged here?  Its a very large amount.  We come here as a community to talk and trade, but we are not organized by any means.  If somebody were able to take leadership of this community, and make financial decisions for the group, we could do major things.  Imagine silk road not as a black market, but as a corporation.  Do you realize the buying power that we as an organized corporation posses?  As a group we have millions available for trading.  That is enough to impact the global value of the currency. 

Essentially, if we were able to coordinate mass purchases, we could all buy right now at $77 per share, which would instantly stimulate the market because we just dumped a million into it, and then we could turn around and sell sell sell.  Some major trades on wall street are aquired and dumped in a manner of minutes.  Food for thought i suppose.

Seems kinda fucked up.
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: GreenInc on July 04, 2013, 04:23 am
Sounds tricky. Imo, Silkroaders are in it more for the drugs than the investment/economic fun.
Title: Re: Bitcoin Value Fluctuation
Post by: Imei01 on July 04, 2013, 05:32 am
In theory as the bitcoin economy grows there should be less variance.
So i say buy more drugs on SR!