Silk Road forums
Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: UANDiR1 on April 11, 2013, 02:59 am
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Hello,
Today's decline in value for bitcoin (BTC) was caused by a very precise market play where a group of traders, suspected to be from Japan, caused a controlled decline from 266 to x<220 within a time frame that intentionally caused many FOREX-based trading algos to initiate selling, which resulted in further panic from retail BTC'ers (such as the majority of SilkRoaders), causing an even greater decline due to superficial fear, allowing those same Japanese traders from the beginning to re-initiate / add to their BTC positions at the extreme lows of today (today's low was 105).
That's how it works.
And for anyone who cares, I am very, very familiar with derivatives (futures and options) trading, in addition to FOREX trading.
Please +1 Karma me if you appreciate this information as helpful. My only agenda with this post is to send love to this community by radiating the truth, and since I have some background in public equities trading, I figured I would shine some light on the darkness. Thanks!
Infinite Love,
UANDiR1
P.S. This is my first post as a non-newbie, my 51st post. I first posted this information a little while ago in the newbie section, and re-posting here since I am seeing a lot of folks are confused and still afraid, and most of you don't go to the newbie section.
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If there was such thing as a controlled decline we would all be doing it to buy it up cheap after the drop. If what your saying here had some reality to it, we would also be discussing the transactions in the blockchain that "controlled" the market. The simplest explanation is often the one that is the case. Apply that to the situation and its pretty obvious what happened. You can't have a market go parabolic forever. You can't invest in something and expect double digit % gains every single day for a extended period. I think people simply aren't used to a deflationary currency and once they get a taste they spend way too much time being bullish about speculation rather than counting their blessings and engaging the market with real transactions. If you want to support bitcoin stop treating it like a free money machine and start treating it like a government free market machine.
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If there was such thing as a controlled decline we would all be doing it to buy it up cheap after the drop.
I'm sorry, but your first sentence hints to the possibility that you don't understand the skill and coordination required amongst an intelligent GROUP of COORDINATED individuals to perform the task (not trying to ridicule you or anything, just saying).
Also, if you are at all familiar with how free market financial instruments work, they price in not current economic support of the instrument, but rather FUTURE economic support of the instrument. For instance, no tenured trader looks at the "current P/E" of any equity with earnings, but rather the "forward P/E." Using this line of thought, you may understand why BTC is still in a bullish trend, despite you bearish fears. GL.
Please support me by +1 on Karma
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Hahaha. You say some very intelligent things, but the karma bid is ridiculous. I'd give ya one if I could if it puts a smile on your face.
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one can never be sure about this controlled decline....maybe it was santoshis cronies cashing on their seed bitcoins...
but their is partial truth to this since someone big sold a bunch suddenly causing preset trades to catch in the flush
IMO the price went up too fast so a correction was due and healthy......i forsee a steady rise back to 200$ level leading to 420 sales
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They are from China actually.
and today was more about mtgox having shitttty servers
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sounds like its possible that the FOREX algorithms could have prompted what was said to be a DDOS attack on the MtGox servers. i havent researched this at all.
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Looks like Mt.Gox and CampBX are offline at the moment. Glad I got my coins bought and moved out to my wallet today at $136 per coin.
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Looks like Mt.Gox and CampBX are offline at the moment. Glad I got my coins bought and moved out to my wallet today at $136 per coin.
Its going back up for sure. ;D
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If there was such thing as a controlled decline we would all be doing it to buy it up cheap after the drop.
I'm sorry, but your first sentence hints to the possibility that you don't understand the skill and coordination required amongst an intelligent GROUP of COORDINATED individuals to perform the task (not trying to ridicule you or anything, just saying).
Also, if you are at all familiar with how free market financial instruments work, they price in not current economic support of the instrument, but rather FUTURE economic support of the instrument. For instance, no tenured trader looks at the "current P/E" of any equity with earnings, but rather the "forward P/E." Using this line of thought, you may understand why BTC is still in a bullish trend, despite you bearish fears. GL.
Please support me by +1 on Karma
please shut up you really have no idea what you're talking about
go back to studying your thesaurus and college level economics books
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They are from China actually.
and today was more about mtgox having shitttty servers
Nope, just verified again (Even though I was already 99.9% sure), and it is JAPAN just as I said before, not China.
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Can you source any of this? Where did you find out they are from Japan for instance?
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Can you source any of this? Where did you find out they are from Japan for instance?
i know their bank is in japan.. saw it when looking at bank transfers to MtGox (which i didnt do).. talks about conversions on deposits made this way having to go through currency exchanges with Yen ans shit. ofcourse that just means a bank that they use goes through japan...
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You all complained about it being too late to buy BTC when it was at 200
now you're given a chance to buy low and get in on the huge payout in the near future and you still complain!
BUY BUY BUY is all i have to say...and that includes LTC.
You know deep down inside that BTC and LTC will rise again, so youre only kidding your selves if you dont buy now while its low.
all buying/selling/exchanging of BTC/USD/LTC can be found here:
*Clear net link*
https://btc-e.com/exchange
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You all complained about it being too late to buy BTC when it was at 200
now you're given a chance to buy low and get in on the huge payout in the near future and you still complain!
BUY BUY BUY is all i have to say...and that includes LTC.
You know deep down inside that BTC and LTC will rise again, so youre only kidding your selves if you dont buy now while its low.
truth^^
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The only thing I see of relevance here is grim for BTC. If the market is able to be controlled and manipulated to this extent by anyone then Bitcoin will never be adopted by the public at large. To us this is just a bump in the road. We predict another rise and it probably will happen. But to what extent? In order for BTC to truly be successful and reach those $1k+ per unit prices I've seen fantasized about it has to reach the masses. Bitcoin was coming off the best 90 day news cycle of it's life. New start-ups and venture capital, a robust economy with more and more businesses accepting it. The fork and how quickly it was handled. Coverage was everywhere, and it was all good, now this.
If this in fact is the case I'm afraid this is bad news for us, the Bitcoin Community. As with anything there are growing pains. But this will most definitely be considered strike two and at the least will have a marked impact on the success of Bitcoin. Like so many of us I've lost thousands of dollars over the past couple days but still hold onto thousands of this currency. We may be a tight knit community but in terms of finances BTC is a drop in the pond.
This kind of behavior can not be tolerated. If it is then it's the same as any fiat currency, only easier to tamper with. As long as that's the case, wait the perception, then Bitcoin is destined to fail. As a community we may always be able to keep it afloat, but in order for it to reach it's full potential big changes need to be made to ensure this can never happen again.
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You all complained about it being too late to buy BTC when it was at 200
now you're given a chance to buy low and get in on the huge payout in the near future and you still complain!
BUY BUY BUY is all i have to say...and that includes LTC.
You know deep down inside that BTC and LTC will rise again, so youre only kidding your selves if you dont buy now while its low.
all buying/selling/exchanging of BTC/USD/LTC can be found here:
*Clear net link*
https://btc-e.com/exchange
Yes, but the real pain in the ass is getting USD into BTC, especially now that Gox is down. I've looked at several options already today. Coinbase was still selling BTC at like 110$ when it was trading in the 60's. So that's a definite no go. We need better exchanges.
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The only thing I see of relevance here is grim for BTC. If the market is able to be controlled and manipulated to this extent by anyone then Bitcoin will never be adopted by the public at large. To us this is just a bump in the road. We predict another rise and it probably will happen. But to what extent? In order for BTC to truly be successful and reach those $1k+ per unit prices I've seen fantasized about it has to reach the masses. Bitcoin was coming off the best 90 day news cycle of it's life. New start-ups and venture capital, a robust economy with more and more businesses accepting it. The fork and how quickly it was handled. Coverage was everywhere, and it was all good, now this.
If this in fact is the case I'm afraid this is bad news for us, the Bitcoin Community. As with anything there are growing pains. But this will most definitely be considered strike two and at the least will have a marked impact on the success of Bitcoin. Like so many of us I've lost thousands of dollars over the past couple days but still hold onto thousands of this currency. We may be a tight knit community but in terms of finances BTC is a drop in the pond.
This kind of behavior can not be tolerated. If it is then it's the same as any fiat currency, only easier to tamper with. As long as that's the case, wait the perception, then Bitcoin is destined to fail. As a community we may always be able to keep it afloat, but in order for it to reach it's full potential big changes need to be made to ensure this can never happen again.
Agree completely. If the system by nature can't be regulated, then we need a more diverse range of BTC exchanges and funding options. Competition, to some degree can provide stability. I am still optimistic about the long term BTC future. With so many articles about it this week, in so many mainstream news sources, its getting the sort of attention that could really launch it into the next level. (or kill it). But like I said. Optimistic.
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4/12/2013: Bitcoin quotes from MTGOX
Low: $54.25
High: $140.00
Currently @ 4:29 CST $93.00
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This is crazy!
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Yep, and just like that it's right back up to $120, the same price Mt.Gox froze at and SR was using even when they were trading below $70 at the time. Let's see where it goes. ::)
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time to buy!
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I bought back in at $70 and at $104. I'd love to ride another wave but no one really knows. It'll be fun though ;)