Silk Road forums

Market => Product offers => Topic started by: LawlessLucy on February 29, 2012, 02:55 pm

Title: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on February 29, 2012, 02:55 pm
============New Feature: Price Ceiling============
I will try to only stock 100mcg hits, but if I'm unable to source
those, I'll offer whatever stock I can find at a maximum of
$15/hit.

If I ever can only find hits LESS than 100mcg, I will lower my
price.
===========================================


Silk Roaders,

I, LawlessLucy, am here to finally offer you my connection to LSD.

Background:
I've steadily been shipping sheets from my source to friends in my home state for years now, and I've never had a failed shipment, and these are sheets, not just a couple of hits. I've been hesitant to join the ranks of SR vendors for fear of failure due to competition placing bad reviews, and for fear of stress due to too much demand. However, after watching the past few months only scammers pop-up as domestic sellers, and at prices that are often beyond reasonable prices for Lucy, I decided finally to get into the game and offer a good source for some good, clean LSD. I plan on being completely honest with you all, every step of the way, but I just ask that if I decide to go stealth and/or drop my listings at any given moment, everyone wont freak out. I'm already hesitant to join this business, and the community that's craving LSD is also the community that I feel has been pushing the vendors away. Mail getting heated for excessive amounts of time during travel is possible, so even under perfect mailing conditions, out of the sellers hands, the product could go bad. I've never had this occur, but it could theoretically, which adds to the stress of the job.

Product Info:
- 100μg White-On-White Blotters
- Laid by the same source who's been doing it for years, never had any inconsistencies in any of the batches. None ever gone bunk. Very professional.

Listing Info:
I will have only 1 listing for 1 hit of LSD, you'll choose quantity based on how many you buy. You'll get discounts/bonuses as you buy higher quantities. After I have established feedback (people aren't scared of me), I will set a minimum USD amount you must spend in order for me to accept the order. It'll likely be based on demand, but expect anywhere between $50-$100 to be the minimum.

Pricing Scheme:
Listing for 1 hit will be $15
 - Order 7+, get 3 free ($105 for 10-strip, $10.50/hit)
 - Order 15+, get 10 free ($225 for 25 hits, $9.00/hit) <-- Won't be available for awhile
 - Order 51+, get 49 free ($765 for a sheet, $7.65/hit) <-- Won't be available for awhile

Service Info:
>I'll be offering my services 100% within escrow, NO EARLY FINALIZATION, EVER. This way people have no reason to claim I'm a scammer because they see a bunch of early finalizes on my reviews. Also, if you finalize early out of courtesy DO NOT put "Finalizing Early" In your feedback at all, even if it's followed by "for a respected seller," instead say something like "Great Service."

>To go forward with the no early finalization rule, I will ABSOLUTELY NOT sell to any buyer who has less than 10 transactions, and I reserve the right to be as picky as I want with this.

>Mail will be packaged discretely with printed labels and correct postage. Will be shipped USPS First Class, no tracking. I will ship within 3 days of receiving your order and offer no guarantees in terms of shipping times, but will give some guidelines for expected shipping times:
70% of orders: 1 week
90% of orders: 2 weeks
99+% of orders: 3-5 weeks
< 1% of orders: Don't arrive

> My refund rate will be directly related to how many people claim their package did not arrive. I will start it at a 50% max for refund and adjust accordingly with how many buyer-scammers I run into. If I'm hounded by LSD competitors who all buy and give me bad feedback, I'm going to adjust the max refund lower, but if my feedback turns out to be all positive, I may consider offering full refunds for orders that don't arrive. My profit is dependent upon not losing product and issuing refunds.

> I'm offering NO FREE SAMPLES. My "samples" are me allowing you to buy a single hit while I get established here. Don't ask. Ordering 1 hit completely within escrow is really little risk, even with a new vendor.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on February 29, 2012, 02:58 pm
Expect listings to pop-up [hopefully] within a month.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: euler2718 on February 29, 2012, 03:26 pm
Looks expensive, but if the product is as advertised I'm sure it will sell like candy around here.
-euler
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on February 29, 2012, 03:37 pm
It may appear that way, but once you get to a 10-strip, $9/hit isn't TOO bad. I'll probably do a little recalculating once SR fees get thrown in, but these are my rough expectations.

Also, I'm buying in sheets, not thousands of hits, so prices have to be high for me to have an incentive to do this.

I'd love to offer you guys the best prices possible, but if I did, the demand would simply be too much for me to keep up with. This is also why I'm incentivizing bulk orders, and why I'm requiring a minimum USD amt after I'm established.

and given the LSD-shortage, if I turn out to be a reputable vendor that people trust, I'm sure I could get well over $13/hit for domestic LSD on SR, but I choose not to abuse that as much as possible.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: themessenger2 on February 29, 2012, 03:51 pm
Have you considered samples? Most people aren't going to buy if the stuff hasn't been tested and vetted by the community.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: Mitanox on February 29, 2012, 03:52 pm
Hey LawlessLucy,

Hope you'll have a great career here on SR. US domestic acid is indeed scarce lately. 9$ a hit for a 10 strip is indeed a good price but I think you will realize that its not enough once you calculate in the SR fees, bitcoin fluctuations and scambuyers. On the other hand you shouldnt have any problems when using DCN and domestic shipments, im just speaking from a international perspective. Anyways, enough rambling :) Hope to see your listings soon and dont forget to post in the LSD vendors thread!

Warm greetings,

Mitanox
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: Holly on February 29, 2012, 03:56 pm
Hey LawlessLucy,

Hope you'll have a great career here on SR. US domestic acid is indeed scarce lately. 9$ a hit for a 10 strip is indeed a good price but I think you will realize that its not enough once you calculate in the SR fees, bitcoin fluctuations and scambuyers. On the other hand you shouldnt have any problems when using DCN and domestic shipments, im just speaking from a international perspective. Anyways, enough rambling :) Hope to see your listings soon and dont forget to post in the LSD vendors thread!

Warm greetings,

Mitanox

Hurry the fuck up and restock your lucy  :P

<3
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: jollygiant on February 29, 2012, 04:57 pm
don't mean to sound ungrateful but these prices aren't that good. tony is doing $70 ten strips from Canada
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: zerostate976 on February 29, 2012, 05:07 pm
Quote
don't mean to sound ungrateful but these prices aren't that good. tony is doing $70 ten strips from Canada

Tony has not had anyone physically test them though, so you cant compare the two product just yet. If they turn out to be legit, then it will make this offering for people who really hate buying things out of country.  Also he is suggesting selling it hit by hit in the beginning which helps people who just want to try it once, plus it is domestic, so no worry about customs at all. It will sell, NN sells one hit for 25$ and it has sold out, plus its coming from .EU so price isnt an issue on the road
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: peter framptom on February 29, 2012, 06:38 pm
Anyone else think this could be ForeverFamily having another go at it under the name LawlessLucy? I sense some similarities that just give me that feeling. The big one is 99% of orders taking 3-5 weeks to arrive domestically. Even the name has a slight similarity to the way it is written. They could have very easily learned from that last fiasco, and made all these changes.

Not lookin to start any shit,  just sayin. ;D. If they would have started out this way from the beginning, they'd probably still be vending.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: zerostate976 on February 29, 2012, 07:20 pm
peter framptom, if everyone stays in escrow no matter what it will be figured out soon. Although the shipping time is reallllly long, domestic should be with in 3-5 days everytime. It would be way easier for them to mail out 5 free samples to mods or credible members to report back on quality.  I see a vendor in the lsd section offering a single hit and only one person has bought it, so if the consumers demand free samples sent out to respected members then they will have to do that eventually if they want it to sell.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: peter framptom on February 29, 2012, 07:42 pm
peter framptom, if everyone stays in escrow no matter what it will be figured out soon. Although the shipping time is reallllly long, domestic should be with in 3-5 days everytime. It would be way easier for them to mail out 5 free samples to mods or credible members to report back on quality.  I see a vendor in the lsd section offering a single hit and only one person has bought it, so if the consumers demand free samples sent out to respected members then they will have to do that eventually if they want it to sell.


Totally agree! I actually was on FF's side, and did get some from him that was definitely acid, and good shit at that! I split a hit with a friend, and we both had a great trip, and there is no RC out there that I know of that would get you that fucked up on a half a hit. I just wish he would have gotten his shit together, and done it right.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on February 29, 2012, 09:12 pm
Quote
don't mean to sound ungrateful but these prices aren't that good. tony is doing $70 ten strips from Canada

Tony has not had anyone physically test them though, so you cant compare the two product just yet. If they turn out to be legit, then it will make this offering for people who really hate buying things out of country.  Also he is suggesting selling it hit by hit in the beginning which helps people who just want to try it once, plus it is domestic, so no worry about customs at all. It will sell, NN sells one hit for 25$ and it has sold out, plus its coming from .EU so price isnt an issue on the road

My thoughts exactly. I figure there would be some people who would rather buy domestic, and in multiple quantities. Also people like to try different sources, so if word gets out that both Tony and I have bomb lucy, I'm sure people will at least want to buy it to try once, to get some variety if nothing else.

Anyone else think this could be ForeverFamily having another go at it under the name LawlessLucy? I sense some similarities that just give me that feeling. The big one is 99% of orders taking 3-5 weeks to arrive domestically. Even the name has a slight similarity to the way it is written. They could have very easily learned from that last fiasco, and made all these changes.

Not lookin to start any shit,  just sayin. ;D. If they would have started out this way from the beginning, they'd probably still be vending.

I'll tell you right now that I am not ForeverFamily. I however did watch him enter the market until he eventually fell, so I do know what he did wrong, where he needed to improve, etc.

As for the 99% of orders within 3-5 weeks thing, those were just random numbers, didn't know he used them as well. And yeah I agree 1-2 weeks is too long for domestic. It PROBABLY will be there within 3 or 4 days, but I put those estimates up there because I anticipate people freaking out if it's day 5 and there's no package. There are problems with the post, that's all I want people to understand.

Though I am glad that I'm apparently off to a good start, definitely good to know that I'm doing it right :)
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: respect on February 29, 2012, 09:23 pm
You should put a link to your vendor profile page in your forum sig
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: robotzombies on February 29, 2012, 10:51 pm
You're my absolute last attempt to trip on LSD and experience the magical-cosmic-spiritual peace, bliss, love and happiness that only Lucy can deliver. Last 7 or so times I've bought acid I've been really disappointed, both on and off of SR. Starting to wonder if Lucy has abandoned me.  :'(
Really crossing my fingers that you can come through for me man.

Side note. I'm gonna be home for spring break all of next week and until next weekend, and I can't have anything sent to my parents house.

Will you still have 1 tab listings up in like 1.5 weeks?
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: respect on February 29, 2012, 11:39 pm
You're my absolute last attempt to trip on LSD and experience the magical-cosmic-spiritual peace, bliss, love and happiness that only Lucy can deliver. Last 7 or so times I've bought acid I've been really disappointed, both on and off of SR. Starting to wonder if Lucy has abandoned me.  :'(
Really crossing my fingers that you can come through for me man.

You need a sure thing, domestic US, look at momiji, envious, tony76 (Canada).
I hope this guy turns out to be legit, but I wouldn't hang that much hope on a new vendor regardless of their sales pitch.
Time, # of transactions and rating will tell. Promises are just promises until there's a history of fulfillment.

Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 01, 2012, 12:20 am
You're my absolute last attempt to trip on LSD and experience the magical-cosmic-spiritual peace, bliss, love and happiness that only Lucy can deliver. Last 7 or so times I've bought acid I've been really disappointed, both on and off of SR. Starting to wonder if Lucy has abandoned me.  :'(
Really crossing my fingers that you can come through for me man.

You need a sure thing, domestic US, look at momiji, envious, tony76 (Canada).
I hope this guy turns out to be legit, but I wouldn't hang that much hope on a new vendor regardless of their sales pitch.
Time, # of transactions and rating will tell. Promises are just promises until there's a history of fulfillment.

Respect is right. You shouldn't put your last hope in a new vendor, as more often than not, you're going to be disappointed. If Bloomingcolor were around still that's who I'd recommend you to, but even he up and disappeared, taking a lot of people's money.

Nonetheless, I hope to provide you with a great experience when you purchase my product, you'll know exactly what you're getting, no exaggerated mcgs. 100 clean, and strong micrograms of clean LSD per blotter.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: Scot Walker on March 01, 2012, 12:22 am
Man, I hope this works out! Prices are a little high, but not too bad. Especially if it's good clean WoW!
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: robotzombies on March 01, 2012, 12:32 am
You're my absolute last attempt to trip on LSD and experience the magical-cosmic-spiritual peace, bliss, love and happiness that only Lucy can deliver. Last 7 or so times I've bought acid I've been really disappointed, both on and off of SR. Starting to wonder if Lucy has abandoned me.  :'(
Really crossing my fingers that you can come through for me man.

You need a sure thing, domestic US, look at momiji, envious, tony76 (Canada).
I hope this guy turns out to be legit, but I wouldn't hang that much hope on a new vendor regardless of their sales pitch.
Time, # of transactions and rating will tell. Promises are just promises until there's a history of fulfillment.

Respect is right. You shouldn't put your last hope in a new vendor, as more often than not, you're going to be disappointed. If Bloomingcolor were around still that's who I'd recommend you to, but even he up and disappeared, taking a lot of people's money.

Nonetheless, I hope to provide you with a great experience when you purchase my product, you'll know exactly what you're getting, no exaggerated mcgs. 100 clean, and strong micrograms of clean LSD per blotter.

Yes, and I am one of the people who's money he took, BC that is.  ;) He shipped quite a bit of bad product right before he vanished too.

See, normally I wouldn't put my last hope in a new vendor, but I've already tried 4 trusted vendors, and I just didn't have enjoyable, proper trips any of those times.

Also, it's not like I was planning on ordering 5 sheets from you man, haha, I was gonna order 2 tabs. Like you said earlier, it's a really small risk anyway when you're dealing with quantities that small.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 01, 2012, 03:31 am

Yes, and I am one of the people who's money he took, BC that is.  ;) He shipped quite a bit of bad product right before he vanished too.

See, normally I wouldn't put my last hope in a new vendor, but I've already tried 4 trusted vendors, and I just didn't have enjoyable, proper trips any of those times.

Also, it's not like I was planning on ordering 5 sheets from you man, haha, I was gonna order 2 tabs. Like you said earlier, it's a really small risk anyway when you're dealing with quantities that small.

That's really shitty to hear about BC. Unfortunately it's fact that any reputable seller can make a ton of money on an exiting scam whenever the feel like it, as they're well-trusted. I know personally that I don't plan on being here forever, but if I ever plan on dropping out, I will let everyone know ahead of time and make sure that all orders are filled so that I leave on good terms and can come back with good rep if I ever decide to.

And yeah, even though you shouldn't trust new vendors, When someone is eloquent enough to seem to know what they're doing, there's definitely no harm in giving it a shot, especially in-escrow.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: Kilg0re_Trout on March 01, 2012, 07:10 am
Anyone else think this could be ForeverFamily having another go at it under the name LawlessLucy? I sense some similarities that just give me that feeling. The big one is 99% of orders taking 3-5 weeks to arrive domestically. Even the name has a slight similarity to the way it is written. They could have very easily learned from that last fiasco, and made all these changes.

Not lookin to start any shit,  just sayin. ;D. If they would have started out this way from the beginning, they'd probably still be vending.
hmmmm....
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: microRNA on March 01, 2012, 08:20 am
there is no RC out there that I know of that would get you that fucked up on a half a hit.

There are numerous RCs that can be active in microgram dosages, most notably bromo-dragonfly and those in the NBOME series. Also half a tab could hold up to a mg or more of a chem. Simply because you think only acid could be active on half a blotter dose not mean it was really lsd-25

Even for experienced users some psychedelics can be fairly difficult to distinguish, especially in lower doses involving 25i

Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: mrfingers on March 02, 2012, 03:50 pm
When do you expect to have your listings up? I'll help you out and order a sheet off ya to get your SR business going ;)
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 02, 2012, 08:10 pm
@kilgore_trout [& others]: I assure you that I am not ForeverFamily. I wish to separate myself from him, as he was a failure of a vendor, and people shouldn't expect that kind of service/dodginess from me. I know it's natural for this thought to come to mind, but in time people will realize that we're very different vendors. One sure way to tell is that I told you all that I'm buying sheets for $400 to resell, and considering FF sold sheets for $375/$400 on SR means that we definitely are not the same person.

When do you expect to have your listings up? I'll help you out and order a sheet off ya to get your SR business going ;)

I'm not going to be selling sheets for awhile, as risking a large quantity initially starting out is definitely not the safest best. Especially to a member with only 5 forum posts. Talk to me once I've been established and we can possibly work something out, but I don't ever expect to sell consistent sheets.

Honestly, if the demand is as high as it is (Tony's stuff sold out super fast, and with little domestic sourcing there's a huge demand with little supply), I might not be able to keep up, so I imagine I'll probably run out of stock fairly quickly.

As far as when listings will show up, it could be as early as this week (this is what I'm hopeful for), but also could be as late as 2 weeks, depending on how my supplier is feeling.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: flicky42 on March 03, 2012, 12:32 am
Hey I'll be one of your first customers to order 1 tablet and write a review. I've been looking for a domestic LSD vender. Looking forward to do business with you!
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 05, 2012, 11:43 pm
Just bought a vendor account so I'm ready to get started on the SR-end of things, just waiting for my supply to come through. ETA late this week or early next week.

Love,

LL
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: robotzombies on March 06, 2012, 06:53 am
hah couple things, i noticed both she and foreverfamily both sign with only their initials :p  that and i read your refund policy and this part

Realize that if
a vendor offers you a 100% refund, s/he suffers a 200% (100% due to product, 100% due to price) loss and
you lost 0%. The only situation where it's truly 50/50 in loss is when a vendor gives a 0% refund (100%
for vendor due to product loss, 100% for customer due to BTC loss), so if a vendor even gives a 1% refund,
s/he's being more than generous IMO.

ummm i think you need to work out your math a little better on that one ;)   drugdealers that cant do math sweeeeet

Yeah I think mrgrey is right. I don't understand how it's a 50/50 loss when a vendor gives a 0% refund. In fact, that's not a loss at all for the vendor...that's the same as a regular sale. Think about it, if a vendor gives a 0% refund, then that means he retains the customer's BTC in exchange for shipping the product...which is the same as a regular sale...what am I missing here?
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 06, 2012, 07:28 am
hah couple things, i noticed both she and foreverfamily both sign with only their initials :p  that and i read your refund policy and this part

Realize that if
a vendor offers you a 100% refund, s/he suffers a 200% (100% due to product, 100% due to price) loss and
you lost 0%. The only situation where it's truly 50/50 in loss is when a vendor gives a 0% refund (100%
for vendor due to product loss, 100% for customer due to BTC loss), so if a vendor even gives a 1% refund,
s/he's being more than generous IMO.

ummm i think you need to work out your math a little better on that one ;)   drugdealers that cant do math sweeeeet

Yeah I think mrgrey is right. I don't understand how it's a 50/50 loss when a vendor gives a 0% refund. In fact, that's not a loss at all for the vendor...that's the same as a regular sale. Think about it, if a vendor gives a 0% refund, then that means he retains the customer's BTC in exchange for shipping the product...which is the same as a regular sale...what am I missing here?

(Assuming the value of the product itself and its BTC price are equal)
In the event of a nondelivery:
The seller receives the cost in BTC, meaning 0% loss (traded product for BTC)
The buyer receives nothing, meaning 100% loss (traded BTC for nothing)

50/50 loss means that buyer and seller loss are equal.
This occurs when the seller refunds 50% of the received BTC (0% loss + 50% loss = 50% loss for seller)
The buyer then receives half of the BTC, lowering a 100% loss to a 50% loss for the buyer.

So yeah, I made a mistake, but no worries this drug dealer knows math ;)

my mistake came from somehow forgetting that the seller receives the BTC in a nondelivery. For some reason when I was thinking out the math for this I took the event of a nondelivery to mean that the money and product were lost, but that's obviously not the case. The assumption came from the fact that escrow withholds funds. Now I can fix this mistake, thank-you.

However, to further my math knowledge, let's add some depth to this equation. So far we assume that in every "claimed nondelivery" the buyer had 100% loss. However, only about 10% of refund claims are honest and/or not the fault of the buyer (albeit through missing the delivery or using a fake name). In the other 90%, we can assume that the dishonest customer suffered 0% loss, or was the fault of the problem and therefore deserves the 100% loss, so we'll consider it a 0% loss.

let p denote the probability (0-1) that a refund claim is honest.
let f denote % loss
The expected value of any customer's loss is p*(f|p) = .1 * 1 = .1 = 10%

Therefore, in this adjusted scenario, in the event of a nondelivery:
Seller suffers 0% loss (traded product for BTC)
Buyer suffers 10% loss (10% traded BTC for nothing, the rest traded BTC for product)

In this scenario, a fair, 50/50 refund would be 5% and would account for all of the scammers.

However, unfortunately, as sellers we have to evaluate you individually, so we couldn't possibly just implement an equation that would take care of scammers, or that would promote scamming and be unfair to the honest refund requests.

Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 06, 2012, 11:58 am
After doing some mathematical meditation in the shower, I thought of a way to apply the weighted equation I came up with in a way that lets me calculate a fair refund rate for customers based 3 major components:
1)What % of your sales ask for refunds. (info gathered from your sales data)
2)What % of ALL SR sales ask for refunds. (compares the two to adjust accordingly to expected vs actual)
3)What you think is a fair refund rate.

Adjusted Refund Rate =
(0.03/[R/N])*0.5

> 0.03 is the expected % of nondeliveries (I've heard SR has an overall 97% success ship rate, though there may be a more exactly accurate number floating around)
> R is the # of Refund Requests you've gotten
> N is the # of Transactions you've processed
> R/N is the chance that any given transaction will request a refund based on your past sales data.
> therefore 0.03/[R/N] is the ratio of expected:actual.
i)When this ratio = 1, Actual = Expected (in this case, 0.03 = R/N)
ii)When this ratio > 1, Actual < Expected (less than expected refund requests; this suggests smooth vendor services and honest buyers)
iii)When this ratio < 1, Actual > Expected (more than expected refund requests; this suggests bad vendor practices and/or dishonest buyers)
>0.5 is the proposed refund rate (50%), what you think is fair. Based on my previous post I'll leave it at .5 for now.

This gives you the new refund rate so that you don't get completely screwed when refunds get out of hand.

WHAT THIS EQUATION SAYS: If there have been more refund requests than expected, adjust my refund rate to be lower. If there have been less refund requests than expected, adjust my refund rate to be higher. If there are exactly as many refund requests as expected, offer the proposed, fair, refund rate.

---META STUFF---
Let's take a look at what this formula implies and how we can manipulate/change it to our liking.

First, let's define Expected Total Loss (in dollars) as:
R*(D/N)*ARR

>R is # of Refund Requests
>D is total $ (or BTC) value of all transactions
>N is total # of transactions
>D/N is avg price for a transaction
(english: #ofRequests * AvgPrice * RefundRate%)

because of the way ARR is set-up, Total Loss is now independent of R, (ARR has R in the denominator) so with this formula your total loss should be stable.

Now let's take a look at Expected Total Loss %, and we can start making adjustments accordingly.

Expected Total Loss % = Total Loss/D = [R*(D/N)*ARR]/D = .03*.5 = .03 (expected) * .5 (fair) = .015 = 1.5% Expected Total Loss.

Our Total Loss is dependent upon what we choose for our expected and fair values in the ARR equation. With these sample #s, a vendor using this equation can expect to only lose 1.5% of his/her total sales to refunds. If you're willing to lose more in order to offer better service, you can see excellent results while appearing extremely generous.

My Example: Instead of 1.5% Expected Total Loss, I'll aim for 5%, since I think that's a fair amount to be allocated to mail mishaps and whatnot. to find my values for this the expected % of refund requests multiplied by the fair refund rate must equal .05.

I'll choose 1 (100%) for the fair refund rate
and .05 (5%) for the expected # of refund requests

Total Loss % = 5%. And with this I'm able to offer 100% refunds guilt-free as long as my %Chance of Refund Request is <= 5% (R/N) and offer only slightly lower discounts when there are more refunds than expected (can offer 50% refunds even when 10% of transactions are refunds)

Obviously every vendor situation is different (harder or easier to hide products, international vs domestic, etc), so adjusting this scenario should allow you to find a fair, adjustable refund rate.

**NOTE: ARR can possibly be greater than 1. Mathematically ARR would be replaced by 1 whenever it exceeds 1, as the max refund you can (and should) give is 100%. Whenever ARR is greater than 1, you provide a buffer of size (ARR-1) that you must reduce refund rate by before giving any less than 100% refunds. When ARR exceeds 1 and the "fair" value chosen is 1, expected total loss and %loss are overestimates.

ARR = (0.03/[R/N])*0.5

In conclusion: Yes, this drug dealer does maths.

Also, I opened up a thread for this formula if you wish to discuss it/comment go here:
http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=14335.0

Love,

-LL
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: mrgrey on March 06, 2012, 01:16 pm
math is still bad,  dont really have time to explain off to work but you should be using standard deviations to adjust.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 06, 2012, 02:33 pm
math is still bad,  dont really have time to explain off to work but you should be using standard deviations to adjust.

I like your catch-all "math is still bad" phrase.

I'd be interested to see where you point out errors and/or flaws in my reasoning. I definitely don't know that it's 100% right, I just pulled that eq/proof out of my ass. I'd love to know if this formula is useful at all. I don't quite understand how you could use standard deviations to the same effect, but feel free to fill me in when you have time.

So, am I an ivy-level math professor? No. Do I know enough math that you can be confident in my intelligence/reasoning: yes.

As far as the FF thing goes, it's really common for anyone whose name is 2+ words with 2+ syllables each to shorten as initials. However I do also find it interesting that by coincidence it's habit for both of us to sign by initials, though I have meaning behind mine, and don't understand the meaning besides FF other than ForeverFamily.

Also, I'll say it again. I'm not ForeverFamily. I'm not really worried if people do think I am him though, because they'll see in time through my service and the general way I approach problems that I am not the same person.

Either way customers who receive great product and great service will return.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: mrgrey on March 06, 2012, 02:59 pm
im not a math professor either, just in the engineering field.  but my point is you are taking an expected mean in several places,  infact all of your interpolated constants should be adjusted to the first standard deviation to find the true dispersion away from the mean. 

i would look at how SR weights their feedback and rankings, which use standard deviations to adjust.

your idea is good, the math behind it though will not result in very accurate or reliable statistics though
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: mrfingers on March 06, 2012, 04:29 pm
@kilgore_trout [& others]: I assure you that I am not ForeverFamily. I wish to separate myself from him, as he was a failure of a vendor, and people shouldn't expect that kind of service/dodginess from me. I know it's natural for this thought to come to mind, but in time people will realize that we're very different vendors. One sure way to tell is that I told you all that I'm buying sheets for $400 to resell, and considering FF sold sheets for $375/$400 on SR means that we definitely are not the same person.

When do you expect to have your listings up? I'll help you out and order a sheet off ya to get your SR business going ;)

I'm not going to be selling sheets for awhile, as risking a large quantity initially starting out is definitely not the safest best. Especially to a member with only 5 forum posts. Talk to me once I've been established and we can possibly work something out, but I don't ever expect to sell consistent sheets.

Honestly, if the demand is as high as it is (Tony's stuff sold out super fast, and with little domestic sourcing there's a huge demand with little supply), I might not be able to keep up, so I imagine I'll probably run out of stock fairly quickly.

As far as when listings will show up, it could be as early as this week (this is what I'm hopeful for), but also could be as late as 2 weeks, depending on how my supplier is feeling.

That's understandable, though really I just don't have much to say on the forums other than business. Once you took a look at my purchase history on SR I'm pretty sure you'd be satisfied, I usually buy much more than a sheet hahaha...I'll probably be ordering a strip off of you if you can run it at a decent discount.
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 06, 2012, 05:36 pm
That's understandable, though really I just don't have much to say on the forums other than business. Once you took a look at my purchase history on SR I'm pretty sure you'd be satisfied, I usually buy much more than a sheet hahaha...I'll probably be ordering a strip off of you if you can run it at a decent discount.

I'm sure if your feedback speaks for itself you wont have an issue getting me to hook you up with a sheet [eventually] as long as there's still profit for me.

10-strip will be $105 after SR fees, order 7 get 3 free (7*15=105)
Title: Re: USDomestic LSD! It's finally here! (Cheap, Fast, and Safe transactions!)
Post by: LawlessLucy on March 12, 2012, 04:40 am
Based on feedback (from my 125mcg offer), I've decided to implement a *Price Ceiling*, of $15/hit. I will try to only stock 100mcg hits, but if I'm unable to source those, I'll offer 125mcg hits at the same price to you.

I agree $18/hit is a bit ridiculous, and since my mission from the beginning was to provide reasonable prices, I'll take the loss when I can't find the reasonably priced stock myself.

Expect listings up Monday March 19th.

-LawlessLucy