Silk Road forums
Market => Product offers => Topic started by: sportbetting on October 19, 2012, 04:50 pm
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Hi.
I will try to make money this way because online bookies heavily limited my accounts. Only pinneacle will take my money (others wont, or will but minimal $). And i cant create account on some other person name - they wont pay me out it is against the rules.
And i want to sell my picks totally anonymous so you can safely take money from them, and for that service I will take money from u :D. So i will try to explain, shortliest possible, how this works.
First of all i dont have fixes matches, it is all based on math, logic and odds market movement.
HOW IT WORKS?
Odds that bookies gives represent probability. For instance if you find over/under match and odds are 1.92 - 1.92 - probability for each outcome (that is bookies probability, not real probability. It is impossible to manage probabilities so accurate for every match) 50%-50%
All my picks have some kind of value . On some picks i will not bet on team that will most probably win, but on team that is "overpriced". Easiest way to describe this: There is tennis match, and 2 players have equal probability to win match. But odds are ( player 1 1,5 - player 2 2,4) so will take player 2 because that will make positive Expected Value. (EV+)
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This is part of strictly mathematical NBA power ranking for 12/13 season that i use. It is based on hard math and if computers will play outcome will be this:
EAST
HEAT 61-21, (684 PTS), +4%
CELTICS 50-32, (575 PTS), +2%
ATLANTA HAWKS 49-33, (566 PTS), -1%
NEW YORK KNICKS 48-34, (555 PTS), +4%
INDIANA PACERS 47-35, (539 PTS), -7%
CHICAGO BULLS 44-38, (512 PTS), -22%
BROOKLYN NETS 43-39, (525 PTS), +19%
PHILADELPHIA SIXERS 42-40, (485 PTS), -2%
etc....
Pts represent sum of player points (plus some other stuff) and percentage represent this year power compared with last year power of team.
Celtics
GARNETT - 93
PIERCE - 90
RONDO - 85
TERRY - 61
BASS - 54
LEE - 44
BRADLEY - 35
SULLINGER - 25
GREEN - 23
etc....
Players ranking represent combination of PER (player efficiency ranking), Potential, "bigger picture" (how will they adapt in game plan) etc...
Then there is subjective power ranking. I will show only one team (not wanna share too many informations :D )
HEAT
- Last year get rid off isolations as primary attacking weapon, Spoelstra wann LeBron and Wade in spot up situations - where they can penetrate, shoot or pass quality
- when they pass to other players it is mostly for 3pt or distance shoots
- They are overpriced this season - La Lakers strongest favorites for the Ring because of missmatch ag Heat under basket and quality defenders to slow down LeBron and Wade. East is weaker so in regular season they will dominate heavily (when they want. This is big qeuastion mark - it is šossible to boston be 1st ranked team - have have leack of motivation in attack)
- There is Ray this year - Heat now have 2 plasyers to spread the floor with outside shooting
- Heat will be best spot-up team in league - Ray Allen
-Biggest minuses - They dont have strong C, they cant win without LeBron, Wade is under question mark - how will he adapt to knee surgery, Spolestra is bad coach.
Missmatch: Lakers
Dark Horse.
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So this is small insight how this works. Whole deal is far more complexive .
Price for 1 match is 10-50 $ (depend on EV. if match have bigger EV, price is bigger) but 95% time will be 30$ or bellow.
If someone wanna buy - I have one big match. odds are 2,30 and EV is huge. Starts next week but i recommend to buy it early - odds may drop
Will be happy to answer all your questions
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bookies dont create lines las vegas does, and they follow the line shifts throughout the week.
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LA create odds for USA sports.
They dont create odds for bookies like: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb https://www.bwin.com/default.aspx http://www.bet365.com ,....
And here http://www.betfair.com/ users create odds (exchange community) . Everyone can be bookmaker
Odds (lines) moves with money. Because bookies wanna smth like this Heat - Lakers 1,9-1,9 and million $ on both sides equali. so they can take the juice and dont depend on outcome.
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i want to put a fat bet in on monday or tuesday on anonibet. what are you thinking. pm me and we can work something out i have been on the worst cold street the last 10 days....
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LA create odds for USA sports.
They dont create odds for bookies like: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb https://www.bwin.com/default.aspx http://www.bet365.com ,....
And here http://www.betfair.com/ users create odds (exchange community) . Everyone can be bookmaker
Odds (lines) moves with money. Because bookies wanna smth like this Heat - Lakers 1,9-1,9 and million $ on both sides equali. so they can take the juice and dont depend on outcome.
any where you bet the lines are always almost identical no matter where you go. never heard of that betfair site though.
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LA create odds for USA sports.
They dont create odds for bookies like: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb https://www.bwin.com/default.aspx http://www.bet365.com ,....
And here http://www.betfair.com/ users create odds (exchange community) . Everyone can be bookmaker
Odds (lines) moves with money. Because bookies wanna smth like this Heat - Lakers 1,9-1,9 and million $ on both sides equali. so they can take the juice and dont depend on outcome.
any where you bet the lines are always almost identical no matter where you go. never heard of that betfair site though.
No, they are different. For example on Youzhny Interwetten 3,40; pinnacle 3,85; bet365 4,00; Landbrokers 3,75,.... (difference between 2.00 and 2,20 is huge. On long term it is a lot of money). http://www.oddsoddsodds.com/ check this out. And best picks are ones that you take before odds movement. (you take it for 2,30 and odds drop to 1,90)
PM sent
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i want to put a fat bet in on monday or tuesday on anonibet. what are you thinking. pm me and we can work something out i have been on the worst cold street the last 10 days....
anonibet have juicy odds for my pick. u will almost tripple your money
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i want to put a fat bet in on monday or tuesday on anonibet. what are you thinking. pm me and we can work something out i have been on the worst cold street the last 10 days....
anonibet have juicy odds for my pick. u will almost tripple your money
dude im not betting 100 bucks on a plus 300 team.
i will report back here if i won or lost forum members on Wednesday!
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i want to put a fat bet in on monday or tuesday on anonibet. what are you thinking. pm me and we can work something out i have been on the worst cold street the last 10 days....
anonibet have juicy odds for my pick. u will almost tripple your money
dude im not betting 100 bucks on a plus 300 team.
i will report back here if i won or lost forum members on Wednesday!
It is not that kind of bet. u will put your money on favorite, not underdog. i will send you PM and explain
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ok thanks...do you mean a parlay? im confused how i could triple of a favorite.
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ok thanks...do you mean a parlay? im confused how i could triple of a favorite.
It is single bet. Im sent you pm to explain this
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Interested to see how this goes. I'm such a hardcore gambler it would be nice to have some kinda logic-based form of gambling. I'm gonna do it anyway, might as well be calculated. Let's see what happens?
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This reminds me of the $20,000 match fixing on the hidden wiki... i could get the funds but it seems like it's a big risk for someone who you barely know with no escrow,,, anyone use this service and get a return?
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This reminds me of the $20,000 match fixing on the hidden wiki... i could get the funds but it seems like it's a big risk for someone who you barely know with no escrow,,, anyone use this service and get a return?
This is not match fixing. I dont guarantee that every match will be won money. But i can guarantee that on long run will be positive Return of Investment. Nobody get a return from this service, because first match from this service didnt start yet.
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This reminds me of the $20,000 match fixing on the hidden wiki... i could get the funds but it seems like it's a big risk for someone who you barely know with no escrow,,, anyone use this service and get a return?
this guy know his stuff i talked to him privately and am very impressed.
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This reminds me of the $20,000 match fixing on the hidden wiki... i could get the funds but it seems like it's a big risk for someone who you barely know with no escrow,,, anyone use this service and get a return?
this guy know his stuff i talked to him privately and am very impressed.
so you're saying you think it's not a scam.... we could raise some major funds for this site if that's the case (of course taking a little cut ourselves for the trouble) :)
.......sorry, off topic.. to the original poster though I am very interested in sports betting. just not on this account. it would have to be done separately on another name so as not to piss off my affiliates.
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dude go to anonibet.com and make a btc sports betting account.
i got 15 btc on the bears winning by 5.5 and am looking good!
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you're my new best friend
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dude go to anonibet.com and make a btc sports betting account.
i got 15 btc on the bears winning by 5.5 and am looking good!
You need to post accurate lines if this service is gonna be legit.
I follow sports lines close ... and NOWHERE did I see a number below 6.5/6.
Maybe you found one ... but I dunno. NFL numbers stay pretty rigid on certain numbers ( 3,4,6,7,10,13,14)
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For this time only, I will write down reasoning and my pick. If u wanna - bet my pick and pay me after. Of course i cant know if u bet my pick or not, u can easily trick me bet, and not pay. But then u will have to deal with Carma (RL Carma) :D :D
Pick is from Champions League and starts tomorrow. (handicap betting - which team will won by 2 goals diff or higher)
Dinamo Zagreb - PSG (-1) 2
Odds are 2,70 / +170 / 17/10
Why are the odds this high?
Well bookies are pretty precise in dealing with Power Ranking of one, - national league. But competition in which participe teams from different national competition gives them hard job. And they fucked up this time.
Where they fucked up?
If they do not have enough information for some national league (like Croatian league - which champion is Dinamo) they, between some other calculation (like fifa ranking of team and fifa ranking of league - that is messy stuff) correlate that league with National team strength. And cro natioanl team is pretty strong - like top 10 in world, but that has nothing with cro league which is not even in top 20 in Europe. (france league is top 5 and PSG is top 10 team in europe)
Dinamo is power house in croatia - won the league 7 times and they will do it again this year. But that only implicate that Dinamo is strong team - they arent strong, Croatian league is pretty weak. If u wanna look it from financial stand of point - PSG players are worth 308.250.000 €, and all players from Croatian league (12 teams) only 148.350.000 € (Dinamo 43.100.000 € )
Style of play
Dinamo isnt used to defend and they dont do it often, because in domestic league they are so dominant that every match they "go for the goal". 90% of they opponents are defending ag them 90% of time. And they are not used to situation when someone is attacking them heavily. They are expeccially weak ag fast players and fast attack (PSG is good at this). They central defenders are really slow (if u look at they age it is not surprising - they are 34 and 32 years old) and they do not have good Defensive Middlefilder who will "water down&slow down" opponents attacks. Theirs best player is Sammir - player that is good against average and weak teams but he cant play well against really strong opponents. In middlefild u will probably see Kovacic (18 years) and Brozovic (19 years) maybe even Halilovic (16 years). They are good but not strong and they will get dominated by strong, physicall PSG players. In attack Dinamo have some nice players but no one has really good Finishing. And they goalkeeper is inconsistant.
Motivation:
PSG is motivated because they lost last game ag Porto and they need this points if they wanna be 1st in group. Dinamo will be last in group like 95%. On other side BBB (Dinamo supporters) throw hate ag Mamic and Dinamo Zagreb. They dont wanna go to watch game and suport their team. Situation is so funny that pathetic Dinamo chairman said - If stadion will be full (smth like 38 000 supporters) he will give one supporter 1 000 000 kn (its smth like 300 average monthly salaries in croatia). And they sold only 6500 tickets. So he send players to walk down the capital and talk down peoples to come to the game. It is not working and now he said he will give to 10 supporters 1 000 000kn (100 000 each) if stadion will not be halfempty. Situation is awful and Dinamo players are really down. This could be gang bang.
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what are you talking about i did post an accurate line.
anonibet.com had bears -5.5 @ -111.
i posted that before game time and i covered by .5
you go under totals in anonibet.com wise guy
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dude go to anonibet.com and make a btc sports betting account.
i got 15 btc on the bears winning by 5.5 and am looking good!
You need to post accurate lines if this service is gonna be legit.
I follow sports lines close ... and NOWHERE did I see a number below 6.5/6.
Maybe you found one ... but I dunno. NFL numbers stay pretty rigid on certain numbers ( 3,4,6,7,10,13,14)
This is my service, and i have not write down that post you have been quotead.
But u are wrong. U cant follow all bookie and all lines, and u can find that margine, especially in land-based bookies. There are many bookies out there :D :D Over 2000 of them. If u include bet fair the number is even higher
“The extent of money that it generates is diverted to clandestine and sinister objectives like drug trafficking and terrorist activities,” said Sharma during an appeal hearing in Delhi of two Indian men convicted of organising betting during a match between Australia and South Africa in the 2007 World Cup.
He estimated that there are “as many as 2 000 to 3 000 bookies operating whenever cricket matches or any other sport are played all over the world.
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dude go to anonibet.com and make a btc sports betting account.
i got 15 btc on the bears winning by 5.5 and am looking good!
You need to post accurate lines if this service is gonna be legit.
I follow sports lines close ... and NOWHERE did I see a number below 6.5/6.
Maybe you found one ... but I dunno. NFL numbers stay pretty rigid on certain numbers ( 3,4,6,7,10,13,14)
you need to delete this post your embarrassing yourself
sports betting i might try this play...or wait untill thursday night football i hit big last night FINALLY
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dude go to anonibet.com and make a btc sports betting account.
i got 15 btc on the bears winning by 5.5 and am looking good!
You need to post accurate lines if this service is gonna be legit.
I follow sports lines close ... and NOWHERE did I see a number below 6.5/6.
Maybe you found one ... but I dunno. NFL numbers stay pretty rigid on certain numbers ( 3,4,6,7,10,13,14)
you need to delete this post your embarrassing yourself
sports betting i might try this play...or wait untill thursday night football i hit big last night FINALLY
Din-PSG is really nice pick, but it is your call. If u wanna watch the game i will give u live stream link before it starts
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i got 5 coins on nba pacers moneyline -111
starts now!