Question regarding Tracking Numbers and Vendor OPSEC

Warning, this may be a little long

Sorry if this is a very noob question, but since I'm not a vendor, I never really gave this much thought/research before.

So as far as I am aware. When you purchase a listing, most vendors don't give the buyer a tracking number because of at least two reasons. One- most buyers are antsy and unpatient, so the vendor fears that buyers will constantly track their package from their home desktop which would raise a red flag at USPS, putting your previously unsuspecting package on their radar. Two- It gives location information that puts the vendor at risk.

My question pertains to number Two. What precisely about this presents a risk to the vendor? I understand their location can be narrowed down via the tracking # based on where the package departed from. However say a package was shipped Monday and arrives Wednesday. On Wednesday I can still just as easily track the package (to get all the location information from Pick Up to Delivery and all in between) anyway, and if it's a matter of withholding the tracking number so the buyer cannot get this information prior to receiving the actual package, what harm could LE do if they had this information early?

I know there are situations where a vendor may drop say 5 packages at once, and if LE can narrow the location down right away, they can potentially put a hold on the other 4 packages at the same location. I do understand that, but excluding this situation (which absolutely makes sense why the vendor would withhold tracking), I'm curious as to why.

Say it's tracked ASAP, like as soon as they get the tracking number, in this case say it's just 2 hours after it was shipped. Even then, what OPSEC does the vendor need to worry about? Sure LE can figure out which post office this was shipped from early on, but a smart vendor uses various drops sometimes an hour apart, as well as making sure not to use the same drop twice in a row. Now the absolute earliest LE tracks this package and gets a location, the vendor is long gone from the post office, so he's out of any danger in that aspect. So what advantages does LE have acquiring this tracking information early, before receiving the package? At first I thought it's because LE might want to intercept it before it gets to a location they are going to CD, so they want to find the package before it was delivered. But if the only person the vendor gives the tracking to is the one who bought it, then the one who bought it must be LE, in which they don't need to intercept the package, as it's coming to them.

Sorta adding to that, say it's been passed the estimated delivery date and the package didn't arrive. Be it 5 days, a week, 2 weeks, whatever. Is the reason that most vendors still refuse giving out tracking numbers (usually only offering it to the market admin for resolution purposes, and not the buyer) because of the red flags? (reason One in the beginning of this post?)

Again, sorry if this is a pretty noob question, just always wondered the main security reason behind this practice.


Comments


[2 Points] noseybast:

The commonly given reasons are the two you've mentioned but in reality they aren't the reason tracking info isn't given, when the buyers pack arrives they have the tracker on the package, so checking that would give the location plus a return address so hiding the location is impossible, the reasons are vendors shipping at a later date than stated (can't do that if handing out the tracker), if the market server was seized then LE would have access to the trackers (though no self respecting vendor would cleartext that info)

So down to the actual reason why vendors don't give out tracker is...... drum roll please......if a vendor handing out the tracking info, then LE could order, get the tracker, get the package, use the tracking info and package to identify other packs the vendor has sent and seized a load before they arrive. If the vendor doesn't give the tracking then LE get their item and they can't seize others in transit as they've already landed