Market deaths; which will be next to fall?

Seems like an unusually high amount of DNM's falling recently, while the past few months has been relative smooth sailing.

Just in the last week or two:

Cannabis Road hacked with 200 BTC stolen.

Pirate Market admin missing and withdrawals disabled.

OUTLAW market hacked, all BTC stolen.

Pandora admin / all staff missing.

Is anyone willing to bet which is the next to fall? Of course, I don't want that to happen. But it seems inevitable that these markets rise and fall all the time. Interested in hearing people's opinions about which will be next to run into difficulties and the reasons for their choice of DNM.

Can refer back to this thread in the future to see if your predictions were accurate. All DNM's on the sidebar are choose-able.

What do you say?


Comments


[30 Points] Vendor_BBMC:

I've got a feeling that Agora will close soon - but in an orderly way. The first TOR marketplace to successfully retire without robbing people, getting hacked or busted.

By the middle of this month, Agora's owners had earned 81,538 BTC in commission. If we call it $500 oer bitcoin, that's $40 million - easily enough to pay for a second server.

This is Agora's commission wallet.

https://blockchain.info/address/1HC3dc4DubRat1P39YBBkwVRbph3ijbtPQ

I don't think I'm giving away any secrets - 5% of every transaction passes through this wallet, so it lights up like a christmas tree if you do a forward-looking taint analysis from your own Agora deposit address.

you will also see that a decent tumbler operates in agora, this wallet l is unmissable, but customers and vendors coins get tumbled when you withdraw, and you are actually paid somebody else's bitcoin that was tumbled yesterday (the fact that they were buying drugs too isn't important).

The wallet raises some interesting thoughts:- if $40M is agora's 5% cut, that meabs that $800M dollars of business has taken place in a marketplace which is STILL IN BETA, and has 20% downtime.

More importantly, I feel, is that Agora's 5% commission stopped going through that wallet in mid-august. The person or people who wrote agora's software has 40 million dollars, but is holding off from buying more processing power. they won't have had a day off since february. DDOS attacks, hackers, law enforcement, constant nursemaiding of the struggling server, scammers, escrow disputes in every time zone - most markets fake a hack and shut down, JUST TO GET A DAY OFF.

When BBMC moved to Agora in February, we got SheepRoadReloaded2 (the forensic blockchain accountant) to deposit a few cents into our agora wallet from the 1Ah wallet he uses for chasing bitcoin thefts. Then I emailed Agora admin and got them to promise they will never steal from us. I thought it went without saying a year ago, but it doesn't. Agora admin are men of few words, but they have quite a dry sense of humour usually. They were all new and idealistic, SR2 hadn't hemoraged all its its vendors and customers to agora yet and there were new market features everyday. They seemed really upset that anyone would suggest they would do a runner, but they grudgingly agreed and promised to never rob any BTVA vendors, and we won't send SRR2 after them to do a forensic blockchain audit.

Its not worth it for 1 bitcoin or so. Agora were involved somehow with bitcoinfog, and they'd seen Sheeproad's wallet dropping pennies through their tumbler and come out of the other side with the bitcoins he was chasing.

In the aftermath of silk road, marketplace owners were cracking up and robbing us every 6 weeks I suggested that Agora should decide when its going to retire, and pre-announce it. They really seemed to like that idea, because markets usually carry on to failure.

They must be like old men now. Rich, but no time to spend it. Every day, the discussions about retirement must be getting more frequent.

I just feel that technical problems are being put on hold at Agora, and they're taking each new day at a time, exhausted but carrying on.

They will announce that they're shutting down. We have a month, finish any business and take our bitcoins (I hope).

They could always use their good name, as the first market not to fail, to start up again with more servers, admins etc in place from day 1. DPR is a hero because he didn't rob us, but he did something worse:- he didn't know when to stop. He, and lots of other people are in prison. and we still lost our bitcoin.


[15 Points] roionsteroids:

Hopefully SR 2.


[4 Points] None:

I feel as if sr2 or agora would be next in line to either get taken down by feds or pull an exit scam. I have a feeling a major market will fall within the next 3-6 months


[4 Points] gerundive:

Cannabis Road... Pirate Market... OUTLAW... Pandora...

It seems like only yesterday we were being assured that all these markets were more reliable than SR2 :)

Is anyone willing to bet which is the next to fall?

Yes. Which Escrow service have you set up, what's the min/max stakes, and have you set odds?


[3 Points] tom_team:

Many of these markets allow MultiSig Escrow! Please use it!


[5 Points] runrunrunrun9u898989:

Ive successfully predicted the downfall of sheep and Tormarket a few weeks prior to each, called out to the herds to run and was always ignored, ill make another prediction:

Agora will shut down gracefully, since they either run btcfog or are working with btcfog of whom claimed they were previously on their team, why does this matter, because if anyone had a good reason to run with the money and had a ton of money to steal its btcfog and to date they have not. They will shut down in the next 4 months, by the end of 2014.

Evolution will run with everyones money and claim someone hacked the site. They will try to outlive agora in order to take the market and run with a heaping pile of coin, this will be within 3 months of agora leaving.

About this time openbazaar will have been launched, however due to the fact that its localized software most of buyers and sellers will be skeptical of its security, so it will be 2016 before it replaces all DNMS.

Until then c9 and TMP will struggle to take the lead, however knowing the herds they will jump onto the next scam site such as SR2, TOM, pirate, hydra, andromeda, leaving the longer lived and more trustworthy markets such as blackbank, bluesky, TMP and c9 in obscurity.


[2 Points] runny_crypto:

Honestly all markets need to evolve/innovate and move onto multi-sig and stop using centralized escrow. Yes, this does discourage some users, but it is central to securing the markets.


[1 Points] dastampmasta:

I mean it would be pure speculation for the most part.... whats the point


[2 Points] ta1337marketnoob:

Did anyone really trust Pirate market, outlaw or pandora? Come on now.

Cannabis road is the only one that really surprised me, and it still hurts. I really hope another "all natural" drug market pops up.


[0 Points] AdventureTimeSupply:

All sites will run with your money when it's time for them to shut down. You'd be a complete fool to assume anything other than that.


[-5 Points] ilovemdma2:

farewell every1 i hope u all get robbed cuz nobody listens anyway


[-8 Points] ilovemdma2:

this isnt speculation, these are the facts so beware of these scum market owners also your post and my post will be down voted or deleted by mods of this subreddit as they are paid off by these market admins to support their meth habit (mainly HUGS)

evo is going down soon, they have tons of money in escrow and they dont allow vendors to FE. its a perfect time for them to run off with everyones coins in each wallet

c9 will be shortly after them , psycho cunt admin wont make it longer than a month or two as its the girlfriend of the owner of sheep c9=sheep2.0

also evo started as a carding/fraud market. dont think the admins of the market have an interest in fraud? scamming people?

you sheep are blind