I would appreciate this post not being removed; I know there is a megathread but I figured I would get much more visibility here than at the bottom of a 300-comments sticky thread.
My hypothesis is that the hardware seized in Quebec yesterday as part of an FBI's investigation into a "Worldwide network of drug sales on the dark web" might be the reason of this downtime. The FBI didn't bust the market as a whole like they did for Silkroad, because Alphabay is much bigger than Silkroad ever was, so it would be logical to believe Alphabay is operating through several servers in different areas of the world. Maybe the FBI just seized one of the mirror servers of Alphabay in Quebec and there are many other servers located around the world. It would explain the "worldwide" aspect of the FBI's ongoing investigation that is talked about in the article. I believe right now the "updates" promised by Trappy and Bigmuscles are actually Alphabay's bosses attempting to secure the rest of their network and replace the Quebec's seized server.
I would also like to point out that the FBI is heading the operation, and not the DEA. As far as I know, all operations targetting markets were headed by the FBI, while investigations on specific vendors are typically headed by the DEA. Another point that is worth mentionning, is that when the FBI and RCMP raided the three locations in Quebec, they were sepcifically looking for computer hardware, and not drugs, despite the investigation being about a "network involved in drug trafficking on the dark web". That rings a bell to me.
I have no doubt Alphabay will come back. Obviously only one arrest was made in thailand and the investigation is ongoing so we can assume most of Alphabay's higher command must be free and active. I just find the timing and length of this downtime to be a too big of a coincidence. Its one of the longest Alphabay downtimes since its opening, and it happens the exact same day "computer hardware" is seized by the FBI as part of an ongoing investigation targetting a "worldwide network of drug sales on the DNM"?... Please.
We have to assume all Alphabay data up until today, even if Alphabay comes back online at some point in the future, is most likely in the hands of the FBI. It does NOT mean that the market would necessarily be infiltrated upon its return, but simply that it is likely that the FBI obtained a mirror copy of the Alphabay website as it was up until July 4th, with all its vendor info, hashed passwords, private messages, and possibly one of its hot wallets. The 4 million dollars wallet speculated to be linked to Alphabay that was suddenly emptied yesterday is definitely not representative of the entire sum of the escrow on the market (as Evolution was much smaller and made off with 12 millions on their exit scam), but it could be the "small" fraction that was being kept in this very specific mirror server's hot wallet. Either seized by LE, or more likely, remotely moved by Alphabay's higher command in other to keep it safe.
As such, I would recommend everyone (most importantly vendors) change their passwords upon Alphabay's return and hopefully most of you have used PGP for your most sensitive communications.
My theory:
Someone was masturbating in the server room again, and didn't control where the load went, frying one of the servers.