I'm being completely serious and want only serious answers, if possible. Through my extended research, it'd seem to me that the drug market is indeed lucrative; that's inarguable. But I'm failing to see how.
Numerous documentaries have shown that your standard drug dealer makes less than minimum wage off of the earnings from slinging on any given week given almost any product.
But let's just assume you're not that. You're not a low-level street dealer peddling for someone else. No. Let's assume you're operating alone. All costs and burdens are upon you and you come into some product. Unless you have bulk, the profit margin for nearly any quantifiably recreational amount is so petty that the repercussions for possession and distribution vastly outweigh the measly $500 or less you could ever get in return.
But let's go further. Assume you do have bulk. How'd you get it? Wholesaler? Are you a self-sustaining manufacturer? Are you able to sell that product at fair and reasonable prices to remain competitive? How much do you charge to cover the costs of the start-up, quality control, and the necessary charges to restock, be it to buy again to resell, or to reproduce yourself?
Let's go even further and assume all best case scenarios. You're not on the street, you're on these darknet markets. Security is a (relative) non-issue, for the sake of argument. Pick any drug in which you'd vend and you'd expect to see any worthwhile return. Let's doubly assume that you're a one-man-show. No middleman. No one to report to, no one to buy off of. It's all you, so any potential losses are mitigated in the process. What do you start with first?
Well, let's look at some statistics:
http://www.killerinfographics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Prescription-v-Illegal.png
Here, data collected up to 2012 indicates that the most popular illegal drugs are weed, cocaine, molly, and amphetamines. In that order.
https://pay.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1xy5p1/use_of_silk_road_the_online_drug_marketplace_in/
In this post, Gwern claims the most commonly purchased drugs were MDMA, weed, and LSD. In that order.
Okay, so we've got a better idea of what's in demand. Now what? Let's assume you go with MDMA. Most prices out there on the markets are retail; not wholesale. You'd be very hard pressed to find any prices worth going through the process of buying for the purpose of reselling for any substantial profit. So you'll make it yourself.
Okay. That's fine. Without getting into too much detail, let's say you've got a budget of $1,500 to work with. Not unreasonable, right? The necessary chemicals needed in the appropriate portions to produce a batch yielding ~15-18 grams, depending on how you go about procuring them, at the time of this writing, can cost you anywhere from ~$400-$600+ alone. And half of those chemicals will probably only last you for one batch. And that's assuming you know the proper process and can handle the equipment well enough to not fuck it up the first three times, having to restock with chemicals that could very well bring unnecessary attention to yourself. But let's continue with our chain of assumptions. Best case scenario. You do it, you get it right on the first try. But what about the glassware? And the safety equipment? An entry-level distillation apparatus runs at least for $200-$300. Then come the stands, and the clamps and the miscellaneous accessories. And then come the boxes of gloves, the respirator(s), the hazmat suit (if you're into obscene caution). And that's not even mentioning where you're going to produce it. You'll need a place that provides both privacy and seclusion, as well as decent ventilation. Not to mention running water and electricity. So let's say you rent a house on a monthly basis, to avoid any suspicion. Best case scenario, you get one for $500/month. You got everything you need, you got your first batch ready, now what?
Time to post the listing. But wait, you can't even get your listing out there without first paying a vendor bond. Of course there are places such as TorEscrow which allow free posting, but it's not exactly gained traction as a bustling place of business. Any other place, the fee can range from $150-$500 just so you can sell. Not even assuming you can accrue the necessary attention and trust to sell any of your product in the first place.
So where are we at now? Once again, assuming best, best, best case scenarios on all fronts; cheapest method of chemical, equipment, glassware, and vendor attainment. You've already spent $1,100 of your $1,500 budget. And that's only if you're only available on TorEscrow. If you want to expand to The Marketplace, you'll have spent $1,250. And not a single cent in return yet.
But wait, there's more. We haven't even gotten into shipping costs, equipment, stealth peripheries, and the recommended circuitous depositing methods consuming your gas. But, no problem, right? You can get USPS priority mail envelopes and labels for free. But what about moisture barrier bags? And heat or impulse sealers? And whatever else you plan to stash in the envelope to make it seem innocuous in a worst case scenario? All of that costs money as well. And you have to repeat the process every time you receive an order.
But let's keep going, we're not done yet. Assuming, for the extieth time, all goes well. Everything's smooth. You haven't made any errors up until this point. Transactions have gone as planned, law enforcement has no interest in you as of yet, and you're doing well to get rid of your stock in reasonable amounts. Let's say all of it. 15 grams. If you partitioned the dosages to ~200mg each, and you sold each dose at an average of $10, you would've accrued $750.
$750. And it hardly covers even half of what you invested to get here. And it isn't even yours yet.
We haven't even gotten to the point of selling the bitcoins for fiat. Taking market volatility into account, your "deserved" $750 could end up being only $700 after market exchanges and losses with various dealers.
But that's okay. You're determined. You take what you can get. After starting with $1,500, spending $1,250 to start up, you're left with $250. In the best possible situation. And you make $700 in who-knows-how-long it takes to sell all of your product. But you've got to keep that house to make another batch, right? So you have to move enough in less than a month, or start moving around for a different place to manufacture. So now you're back up to $950. $550 less than when you started. But you're going to keep going. You want to make another batch. But half of your chemical supplies are exhausted. That's another ~$250 worth of investment to get what you need to produce again. So you're back down to $700. Less than half of what you started with.
But what if you sell that batch too? Valued at another ~$750? Well, you're back up to $1,450. After selling two whole cooks worth of illicit product, under the best possible conditions, you're still making less than you would've had you just saved your money.
And how did you get your money in the first place? Are you working a job? If so, what is the logical reason you would sell in the first place? It's been empirically proven to be a financially non-viable option. You've actually lost money trying this.
And you're the one selling.
So please. Someone. Tell me. HOW DOES ANYONE PROFIT OFF OF THIS?
(inb4 scammers and market administrators.)
How about a quick look at some of the top coke vendors, they buy in weight and sell in singles. This almost never happens in the real world, people either buy small, sell small or buy big, sell big.
This gets the vendors maximum profit. Small example.
Buy uncut kilogram of cocaine, £40,000. Sell per gram £100avg. Turnover £100,000/ Profit, £60,000. How long does it take to sell that? Not long for top sellers, including small weights,
Bulk Ecstacy 10,000 pills, Buy at £2 each, sell small scale £3-5 each, small small scale £5-£8 each.
$1,500 is no where near enough capital to start a business on, never mind making your own drugs and packaging/sending. Your simply looking at it the completley wrong way.