I wanna know the likelihood of a CD if I were to only be buying just for personal use. If I was gonna buy some weed it'd be not more than an 1/8th. If it was ecstasy or psychedelics it would be no more than x10 - of which would last me a very long time. Probably a few months.
Or does it not matter or possible to know? Depends on the vendors credibility or location? Im about to pop my Darknet cherry. Please pardon if this is a dumb question.
I'm from the US btw.
Really hard to tell and there is no definitive answer. I'm familiar about a case where someone got pinched for a couple of Vicodins (less than 10). I don't believe its the quantity that drives the probability for a CD as much as just how easy the job was made for LE. If you present as low hanging fruit and an easy score, they'll probably do a CD or what not. This includes the vendor making you low hanging fruit via shitty packing and/or stealth.
Anecdotally, it seems that the risk of a CD due to a random find by USPS is extremely low. This is highly unlikely, esp for any personal quantities. I've found there are two main risk vectors (again, anecdotally) - the vendor and your drop. The risks are a vendor could get popped with the actual packagae in their possession before dropping it off, the vendor's packs were profiled and those in transit were nabbed in that fashion, or a vendor is compromised by LE. Some of the previous examples you can't do much about - its just shitty timing. Another major issue are people use bad addresses or fake names. Don't do that. That will dramatically increase yoru chances of the pack becoming intercepted. Unless you are vending, just find a good, simple drop that has a real name and real address (not a vacant house for instance). On that topic (and not necessarily DNM related), I've read several instances in the news about packs of drugs getting intercepted. I think I've read about 5 over the past 12 months and it isn't necessarily DNM related (have no clue), but the principle remains - in each of those cases the pack was uncovered by the addressee was to a vacant house and got the famous "Return to Sender", who happened to be unrelated, law abiding gentlemen who promptly called police when they found coke in an envelope.
If you follow the basic principles of how to order off the DNMs, you will have a very little chance of getting popped. The collective wisdom here is here for a reason, use it. The moral of the above is that CDs don't happen by chance (random screenings) - they happen b/c of human error or poor judgement of either the buyer or the vendor. Some things are just bad luck though (for instance ordering from a compromised vendor before they showed signs of being compromised).
What I generally do is watch a vendor and monitor their feedback closely. If I don't see packs getting delivered, I avoid. I also try to monitor the sub as well. Even when I'm not ordering, I will watch vendors I use carefully. Look for patterns in deliveries, how long shit is taking (that's why I love the FE Will Update reviews, esp when people update them. They give me a baseline of their delivery times). That being said, I broke this rule recently. I wasn't very active on the DNMs or this sub for the latter part of May and early half of June. I totally missed TSG and his exit scam or whatever befell him. I missed the signs completely. I wasn't watching his feedback on the markets and didn't see pages of "FE Will Update" reviews that were aging. I fucked up and totally missed it. So point being, try to at least lurk around, follow a vendor you may order from and watch their reviews closely. Ask about vendors too here and search. A good vendor yesterday might not be great tomorrow. Also, I don't know anything about international mail - all this pertains to domestic US.