- The US has a new DEA chief.
- Governmental pressure to regulate bitcoin will increase in 2015.
- The markets are relatively mainstream at this point in time.
These three variables did not previously exist and are worth bringing to the attention of any prospective or current vendors. I suspect, with minimal evidence, it will become more difficult to launder drug funds on the darknet in 2015, thereby making it less attractive to large-scale dealers servicing the community. Gwern compiled existing data on market lifespan, but I would not assume them to have a high predictive value. Drug trade changes = changes in LE prosecution of the drug trade.
TL;DR - Stay safe or stay in jail.
Yup this is why we need to decentralize the markets and use a more anonymous currency than bit coin. There's to much money to be made someone will figure it out. LE will still mainly attack the centralized markets because it's the only thing they can do. The markets are in need of a rebirth. Also laundering money isn't to hard especially if you do it somewhere besides the US. There's plenty of countries that don't give a fuck where the money came from