Total number of multisig transactions by day: no decline?

So I was curious about how multisig transaction has been varying over time: in particular, I suspect the blackmarkets have shifted even more to centralized transactions after Operation Onymous hit in November.

I scraped http://webbtc.com/scripts/multisig for multisig transactions:

for i in {0..220205..20}; do wget "http://webbtc.com/scripts/multisig?offset=$i"; done
# https://www.dropbox.com/s/arj02lci9g4jm1k/2014-12-10-webbtc-multisig.tar.xz

And loaded up in R, counting transactions by roughly 1-day chunks of blocks:

multisig <- as.data.frame(table(as.integer(system("grep --no-filename '<td><a href=\"/block/0' multisig* | sed -e 's/.*\".*\">//' -e 's/<\\/a><\\/td>//' | sort", intern=TRUE))))
multisig$day <- rep(1:(round(nrow(multisig) / 144)), each=144, length.out = nrow(multisig))
multisig <- aggregate(Freq ~ day, multisig, sum)
library(ggplot2)
qplot(multisig$day, log1p(multisig$Freq)) + aes(group=1) + stat_smooth()

https://i.imgur.com/BLXDynx.png (log-scaled because some assholes added 15k transactions in one day, apparently)

Onymous was ~40 days ago but I don't see any noticeable break downwards around day 160 - maybe a small decline downward but that could easily be part of whyever it flatlined day ~125.

So it seems that the market turmoil and closure of TMP and whatnot did not affect overall multisig use; this is good in the sense that it shows lots of people are using multisig for other purposes, but bad for us since it shows that hardly any blackmarkets are seeing much multisig usage (there are hundreds/thousands of DNM transactions per day).


Comments


[2 Points] ShulginsCat:

I'm surprised there's that many multisig transactions out there period. Is that ~3k/day?

What would you think the biggest source of transactions is outside of DNMs ?


[2 Points] DrugsnAnarchy:

So, what are you saying? You were curious if op. onymous would make people distrust centralized dnm's but discovered no noticeable difference between before and after? Only an increase in multi sig outside of dnm users, how can u tell the difference between dnm and non dnm multi sig?