10% of Australian psychostimulant users report recent DNM use, with 12% Customs intercept rate

"Characterising Dark Net Marketplace Purchasers in a Sample of Regular Psychostimulant Users", van Buskirk et al 2016:

A recent paper published by Barratt, Ferris, and Winstock (2014) analysed data from a large, international sample of 9,470 recent drug users who completed an on-line survey promoted through the media in 2012 (before the closure of the Silk Road) and found approximately 6% of their sample had purchased drugs from the Silk Road, with rates of purchasing highest among participants from the USA (10%) and lowest among Australian participants (4%). However, this low percentage of Australians is apparently at odds with the American Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) documents released in the wake of the Silk Road closure, in which it was determined that Australian customers were overrepresented on the original Silk Road relative to Australia's population (Ormsby, 2015). The most commonly purchased illicit substance across USA, UK and Australian participants was MDMA, followed by cannabis and LSD.

...The Ecstasy and related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) has been monitoring patterns of substance use and associated characteristics of regular psychostimulant users (RPU) in Australia since 2003. In this sample, participants are eligible if over the preceding six months they have used on at least six different occasions one of the following psychostimulant substances: 3,4-methylenedioxy- methamphetamine (MDMA), 3,4-methylenedioxy-amphetamine (MDA), methamphetamine, cocaine any non-prescribed use of pharmaceutical stimulants (e.g. methylphenidate, and dextroamphetamine). Over the past two years, the EDRS has reported an increasing proportion of participants sourcing NPS and traditional illicit substances online. In 2012, 3.6% of those sampled reported sourcing any drug online in their last transaction, with 5.7% of the sample having purchased online in their last transaction in 2013 Sindicich and Burns (2013, 2014).

...The sample incorporated 745 participants recruited as part of the 2014 EDRS. This study is designed to monitor self-reported changes in illicit drug market use and preference across Australia (for full methodology see Sindicich and Burns (2015). Participants were recruited for face-to-face interviews during March-July 2014 using a purposive sampling process, via advertisements in universities and street press, and peer referral. Participant eligibility included an age of 16 or older, use of a psychostimulant drug at least once monthly in the preceding six months, and residence in the city of University of New South Wales Human Research Ethics Committee.

...To measure dark net use specifically, respondents were asked whether they had ever used a dark net marketplace to purchase drugs, and whether they had done so in the preceding 12 months. Those found to have recently purchased from dark net marketplaces were asked if they purchased from domestic (i.e. Australian) retailers on these marketplaces, or if they purchased from retailers in other countries. Buying from domestic retailers offers a relatively lower level of risk of detection compared to importing drugs across the Australian border, due to stringent screening of packages at the international border (Australian Crime Commission, 2014). Participants were asked what substances they had purchased, and whether their purchases were made for themselves or others. Participants were then asked about their main motivation for purchasing online, any negatives associated with purchasing online (both including free text response options), their likelihood of purchasing online in the future, and if their last ordered package arrived without detection.

...Of the 745 EDRS participants, 82 reported that they had ever purchased from the dark net (12% of the sample), with 66 (80% of all dark net users; 10% of the sample, 95% CI: 7%-11%) reporting having done so in the previous year.

...The majority of recent dark net purchasers reported they had purchased from the original Silk Road, with the majority reporting they had bought from international retailers, either exclusively (38%), or from both Australian and international retailers (30%). Most reported purchasing for both themselves and others (83%), and stated that 'a few' of their friends also purchased from the dark net (73%). Notably, seven participants (11% of purchasers) stated none of their friends purchased online. MDMA was nominated as the most commonly purchased drug, followed by LSD, cannabis and new psychoactive substances (NPS). Participants largely cited the cheaper price online as their main motivation for purchasing online over street markets (38%), and the higher quality of substances online (30%). The mostly commonly cited negatives of purchasing online were that packages did not arrive (27%), the slow overall process of purchasing online (22%) and the difficulty of the process (20%). The vast majority of dark net purchasers stated their last ordered package arrived without being intercepted (88%).

...Due to low numbers reporting past month fraud or violent crime (2% and 4% of the sample, respectively), these two categories were collapsed as a single variable. At the univariate level, those who reported recent dark net purchasing were more likely to be male (OR 3.24, p<0.001) and aged under 25 (OR 2.70, p=0.007). No other demographic differences were found between the groups. In terms of substance use, dark net purchasers were more likely to report using: any NPS in the preceding six months (OR 7.51, p<0.001); psychedelic drug classes (OR 13.26, p<0.001); cannabis daily (OR 2.01, p=0.031); ecstasy weekly or more (OR 2.20, p=0.005); and two or more ecstasy pills in each session of use (OR 1.91, p=0.016) in the preceding six months. They were also more likely to report having committed a property crime (OR 3.05, p<0.001) and a dealing crime (OR 2.58, p=0.001) in the month preceding interview.

...Though a small proportion of the sample reported ever (11%) and recently (10%) purchasing substances on the dark net, proportions are slightly higher than those from the 2015 Global Drug Survey sample (6.9% of Australians in the sample reported purchasing from the dark net in the preceding 12 months; Winstock, 2015).

...Substances in Australia are traditionally more expensive than other countries, likely due to Australia's relative isolation (Sindicich & Burns, 2013, 2014), and as such dark net marketplaces appear to represent a cheaper alternative to street markets (Van Buskirk, Roxburgh, Bruno, & Burns, 2013). This is supported by the finding that almost 70% of the dark net purchasers in the current study ordered from retailers outside of Australia, despite a higher legal risk of detection associated with international importation compared with domestic mail, due to stringent screening process of mail at the international border (Australian Crime Commission, 2014).


Comments


[6 Points] None:

I think that if anything, it must be below a 12% interception rate. I'd imagine that in at least some of those scenarios, the vendor didn't send anything. but then again, 27% said a possible downside to DNM is non-arriving packages. though perhaps the people composing that 27% have made hundreds of orders each, with very few non-arrivals. could also be that those who had packages confirmed to be intercepted (as opposed to just non arrivals) are currently incarcerated and/or no longer want anything to do with DNM/drugs, so arent included in the survey. who knows.

I'd be curious for AUS buyers what the overall percentage of non-arrivals is (ie total non-arrivals / total purchases). it'd be tough to retroactively determine how many orders you've made though

really interesting read. regardless of what the actual interception rate is, it's certainly nowhere near what DNM vendors would lead you to believe.


[3 Points] rusty_nailer:

I haven't ordered anything illegal from the DNM but I can tell you that from my recent experience ordering cigarettes is that Aus Customs have been intercepting around 50% of my smokes. It still works out a little cheaper for me to order from overseas even if I lose half of my orders.

With Australia being a island country and all international mail going through Sydney customs probably makes it a lot easier for them to intercept any illegal mail items.


[2 Points] travelghost:

I'd shit my pants if 1-2% of my packages were intercepted.


[2 Points] octomarvel:

Thanks /u/gwern.

Kinda wish there was more reporting of this nature here.

=)


[1 Points] None:

I feel for the aussies, I really do. It's like, one of the most naturally deadliest continents on the face of the earth. I mean, I know that more city scape areas are not as overrun by scorpions and spiders and whatnot. But for real, if we could get more good drugs into them, they might stop huffing so much raid xD please tell me you guys have heard of the crazy noonga