My theory on Alphabay's downtime.

I would appreciate this post not being removed; I know there is a megathread but I figured I would get much more visibility here than at the bottom of a 300-comments sticky thread.

My hypothesis is that the hardware seized in Quebec yesterday as part of an FBI's investigation into a "Worldwide network of drug sales on the dark web" might be the reason of this downtime. The FBI didn't bust the market as a whole like they did for Silkroad, because Alphabay is much bigger than Silkroad ever was, so it would be logical to believe Alphabay is operating through several servers in different areas of the world. Maybe the FBI just seized one of the mirror servers of Alphabay in Quebec and there are many other servers located around the world. It would explain the "worldwide" aspect of the FBI's ongoing investigation that is talked about in the article. I believe right now the "updates" promised by Trappy and Bigmuscles are actually Alphabay's bosses attempting to secure the rest of their network and replace the Quebec's seized server.

I would also like to point out that the FBI is heading the operation, and not the DEA. As far as I know, all operations targetting markets were headed by the FBI, while investigations on specific vendors are typically headed by the DEA. Another point that is worth mentionning, is that when the FBI and RCMP raided the three locations in Quebec, they were sepcifically looking for computer hardware, and not drugs, despite the investigation being about a "network involved in drug trafficking on the dark web". That rings a bell to me.

I have no doubt Alphabay will come back. Obviously only one arrest was made in thailand and the investigation is ongoing so we can assume most of Alphabay's higher command must be free and active. I just find the timing and length of this downtime to be a too big of a coincidence. Its one of the longest Alphabay downtimes since its opening, and it happens the exact same day "computer hardware" is seized by the FBI as part of an ongoing investigation targetting a "worldwide network of drug sales on the DNM"?... Please.

We have to assume all Alphabay data up until today, even if Alphabay comes back online at some point in the future, is most likely in the hands of the FBI. It does NOT mean that the market would necessarily be infiltrated upon its return, but simply that it is likely that the FBI obtained a mirror copy of the Alphabay website as it was up until July 4th, with all its vendor info, hashed passwords, private messages, and possibly one of its hot wallets. The 4 million dollars wallet speculated to be linked to Alphabay that was suddenly emptied yesterday is definitely not representative of the entire sum of the escrow on the market (as Evolution was much smaller and made off with 12 millions on their exit scam), but it could be the "small" fraction that was being kept in this very specific mirror server's hot wallet. Either seized by LE, or more likely, remotely moved by Alphabay's higher command in other to keep it safe.

As such, I would recommend everyone (most importantly vendors) change their passwords upon Alphabay's return and hopefully most of you have used PGP for your most sensitive communications.


Comments


[82 Points] C_Lana_Zepamo:

My theory:

Someone was masturbating in the server room again, and didn't control where the load went, frying one of the servers.


[48 Points] _-________________-_:

I have no doubt Alphabay will come back.

Sure... :-p

If the Quebec stuff is related to Alpha, and they had any common sense, they'll quit while they're ahead.

Trappy and BigMuscles are ultimately figurehead puppets who know nothing about anything behind the scenes.


[35 Points] None:

[deleted]


[15 Points] None:

[removed]


[14 Points] papervoid:

The dump I took this morning best represents what I think of your theory.


[11 Points] None:

you would think the biggest dark net empire would host their illegal servers somewhere that isn't in the reach of the five eyes. Better yet, somewhere that isn't as secure and crowded as Quebec.


[9 Points] qpquestion:

Haven't you kinda already made like 3 different posts about your theory on alphabay now? Just trying to keep score


[8 Points] None:

The fact that scares me most... is it's likely true... what other market could it be, and it's got to be one.. recently I started using auto encrypt... I know.. I just got lazy.

So now a few orders if they are stored by AB instead of encrypting without storing, are probably traceable to me.

I feel kind of fucked rn actually.


[5 Points] TrojanRabit:

I don't think AB would operate a server in Canada, a government with such close ties to the U.S. Why wouldn't they use small countries in eastern Europe where the Fed's can't as easily get to them with less or no cooperation from local government.


[4 Points] None:

I hope AB comes back as I have 2 orders which haven't been shipped yet and are still in escrow.

But I 100% will never be using them again, would need to be an idiot.

Hansa looks nice enough :)


[4 Points] None:

You think you're too good for the pinned thread, innit?


[3 Points] thenorm123:

I think this is probably close to the truth. I'm not quite so confident it will be back though


[3 Points] DrDNMreviewz:

but Dreams downtime before the Alpha downtime tells a different story.

My tinfoil hat says that someone as competent as /u/hugbunter found some new exploits and worked with them to get em fixed, now alpha is working with him to get them fixed too, but as always, they take much longer to react!


[3 Points] Throwaway278983949:

Really makes you wonder who's who.... Wonder if alphaone knows anything about ab.... lmao

Imo someone is compromised and giving info.... knew it was coming it was just a matter of time, this is more than likely just the beginning if it actually was a piece of ab.

You never know who is tied to who in what way


[2 Points] notanalphabayfan:

AB admins were doxxed, all of them.

Trappy is compromised and has been working with LEO.

Some vendors were warned and went FE only.


[2 Points] DareToHope:

The 4 million dollars wallet speculated to be linked to Alphabay that was suddenly emptied yesterday

This was proven to be false, the wallet lead back to a wallet that existed long before alphabay did. and most likely is a poloniex wallet.

*edit for source * https://www.reddit.com/r/AlphaBayMarket/comments/6ldi5q/stop_talking_about_this_stupid_address_with_1400/

https://www.walletexplorer.com/address/12cgpFdJViXbwHbhrA3TuW1EGnL25Zqc3P


[2 Points] blahblahonetwo:

Does anyone believe that the Ukrainian servers seized during the pedo investigation may be related to the current AB downtime?


[1 Points] qpquestion:

My theory is that the late great quantik (rumored lizard squad founder) was actually part of the AB leadership and was in charge of the Quebec operations. With all his inside information he tried to warn the community but everyone said he was crazy so he killed off his latest incarnation and gave those accounts to random people around the world to be reborn again as a new vendor. It would explain how his alt accounts automatically receive high trust levels on AB. How ie it again that vendors earn their trust levels? Completely just random bullshit speculation though and any names used in this though were created by my imagination and have no ties to any real life people who may or may not have similar usernames


[1 Points] dankmarket:

A tree limb just knocked out my power and it won't be on till tomorrow. I'm slightly stoned and drunk. Alphabay is cutting it off and taking the money. I gotta get off phone cause can't charge.


[1 Points] throwawayAB89:

would have to be a RAID 5 which doesn't make sense on multiple servers.


[1 Points] Iorderedtoo:

Aye yo bitch, who all lost money now?


[1 Points] Crazypens30:

So do you all think that it will return, or is it too early to tell? There are so many possibilities as to what really happened.


[1 Points] SorryNotSober:

People thought Agora would come back up as well.


[1 Points] yellyinbelly:

Have you checked the time? According to dnstats its now 61h since alphabay went down.. Its now 2pm in french canada... No agency would raid a server in the middle of the night .. they would first have donuts and coffee and then get their asses up and do it in the morning.. :-)


[1 Points] CokedNchocked:

I WANT TO FUD YOUR WORLD. I WANT OP FUD SO SO BAD.

GIVE ME A HIT, SO WE CAN GET AT IT.

That golden arm chair, digital FUD, digital FUD is what gets me stiff as an LEA visit.

Coked out, all day, I spend my day waiting for Alphabay, shitting FUD essays.

A few hours hours in, some masterfud will change it, you fucking plebs, dont know shit, oh wait a minute, my lines are getting thin.

Confidence and ideas are running of wind.

Erase this fucking shit, OP delivered that FUD for the win.

HYPOTHESIS proven, proof is for pigs anyway, retards. You have no idea, who the fuck I am. You don't need proof. Just that arm chair bullshit.


[1 Points] Craigmancustie:

too long, no reasonable explanation

only safe assumption if they come back is LEO honeypot


[1 Points] stonedbuyer01:

I'm currently shitting on your post OP


[1 Points] octopusonhead:

Big load off my back, if true.


[1 Points] None:

Password change is a must, yes.


[1 Points] None:

My theory:

North Korea shot one of the servers with a missile


[1 Points] smithaux:

sad but true :/


[1 Points] None:

[deleted]


[-1 Points] crushdudes:

it would be logical to believe Alphabay is operating through several servers in different areas of the world.

Why would they do that? There is no benefit, and increased risk.