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[–][deleted]  (3 children)

[deleted]

    [–]_vvvv_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    I see, thank you for the insight.

    I'm a huge fan of your work, by the way. Keep it up.

    [–]krokodilchik 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Yep, pretty much 9/10. Mostly making a tongue-in-cheek comparison between vvvv's suggestion and the posters who had similar ideas about pirateat40.

    [–][deleted]  (9 children)

    [deleted]

      [–][deleted]  (1 child)

      [deleted]

        [–]reaperx2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        This same thing happens with carder sites. They get busted then the people not busted move onto other carder sites and eventually those carder sites get busted. I can see this trend carrying over the underground drug markets.

        Although, one possible caveat. Kmf was working on a "project", I think it was a decentralized marketplace. When he left SR forums he said he passed it onto people who will finish it. Kmf maybe a little weird and a pedo, but he is smart and I respect for that. He's been involved in other dark web shit that occurred before SR and he has not been captured so his security practices are good. He's the type of genius who stands a chance at developing a market place with the proper security to evade LEA. He's spent multiple years working on it so I'm sure its pretty damn secure.

        [–]bmrthrowagay -2 points-1 points  (4 children)

        you are less confident than a coin flip that BMR will still be up in 12 months time.

        I am a betting man, but only bets that are fair, I tell you what i will flip this coin, 1 bitcoin per bet, if its heads you win 0.4 of your bitcoin back, if its tails you will get 0.4 of your bitcoin back. Oh don't want to bet? lets try to use some retarded attempt at psychology to try to get more people interested "if you are man enough to bet"

        You are not even man enough to give decent odds on something you claim to be fucking confident about.

        [–]bmrthrowagay -4 points-3 points  (2 children)

        The bet example i gave was to indicate "your offer is stupid therefore i will reply just as stupidly" It was ironic, Trying to make the numbers add up compared to your bet wont work, its not suppose to, that was the point.

        Btw your "Definitions" are very unfair, anyone betting on BMR to still be up has already lost, because your link wont work, that isn't the BMR link.

        You are making it sound like something it simply is not.

        It is a bet at unfair odds to anyone who wishes to place a bet.

        [–]reaperx2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        He's a fucking moron with a big ego. Its not worth fighting cause he isn't listening to a word you say. I don't think he realizes he has no clue what he is even talking about.

        [–]LongLiveThe_KingIAMA Shill AMAA 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        True, thanks for your insight

        [–]IAmIncognegro 22 points23 points  (0 children)

        Welcome to /r/circlejerk

        [–]Zevee 4 points5 points  (1 child)

        Actually, the odds are crap. Worst I ever seen.

        [–]TUZU 1 point2 points  (6 children)

        so it's 4 of you right so does that mean if I bet the 2.3 or what ever for sheep to shut down in 6 months and it's 2.3 to 1 does that mean its 1 bitcoin from each of yall or one total? sorry I've made a living gambling

        [–]TUZU 2 points3 points  (4 children)

        see, so it's like betting against myself. The price of my bet doesn't even cover with winning bet if I win. Or are you doing it as I bet 7 bitcoins, I get my 7 plus yall's 1 if I win?

        [–]reaperx2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Yeah, I highly doubt SR 2.0 will auto encrypt addresses. Stexo vouched for the new DPR so I would assume the new DPR is knowledgeable about security and wouldn't do that because stexo understood security and I doubt he would vouch for someone who wasn't up to par.

        Hell, there is the possibility that stexo is the new DPR, but we would never know.

        Another possibility though this is a long shot is this SR 2.0 could be utilizing the code kmf was working on. Kmfs last post mentioned giving the code to someone else to finish. Kmf may possibly be a pedo, but he was super knowledgeable about security. He spent a couple years working on it so I have no doubt it was designed to be extremely secure. Again we probably wouldn't be able to prove this, but it is probable. I really hope this theory is true because kmf was pretty fucking paranoid so something coming from him should be well programmed.

        Also, this new DPR is well aware that the NSA had the capabilities to compromise the server. He intends to rent a bunch of VPS and use them as relays to make the job more difficult and expensive for the government. Also this DPR is taking his time to develop the site (hopefully he's actually thoroughly testing the security ). I think this whole ordeal about different vague release dates is intentional.

        But, I agree we can't know for sure until the site is launched. I have a feeling that this DPR pays close attention to detail and everything he says or does is well thought out and planned.

        This is off topic, but does sheep auto encrypt? I know BMR does (but I disabled it), but this is the first time I heard about sheep doing it. I still encrypt my informational manually so the point is moot for me.

        Sorry for the terrible structure and probably bad grammar. I'm a bit sleep deprived.

        [–]reaperx2 0 points1 point  (1 child)

        Gwern I think your smart enough to read between the lines here. Check out DPRs latest comment

        http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pmb3k/dpr_the_quiet_before_the_storm/

        This makes my theory about SR 2.0 being kmf's p2p market much more plausible. First he says his announcement will be major news around the world. So whatever it is its big and I think a p2p black market would certainly be big news. Secondly he says he's going to disappear after this. This would actually make a GREAT deal of sense if the market is p2p because he will no longer have to manage a centralized server. Moreover, a p2p market will not need a leader because it is decentralized. Also, with a p2p market it make a lot of sense to build all these relays.

        Thinks makes me much more confident in DPR because it shows he can "tame" his ego and not let it get the best of him.

        What are your thoughts?

        [–]angrygayvirgin -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

        y, very knowledgeable and does all kinds of research. Not to mention that detailed report on SR.

        Though, if your careful use PGP and bitfog and you only fund your account enough to make your order I think you'll be fine even if those sites go down, unless your unlucky an

        The new DPR sounds like an incompetent fool.

        [–]Delerrar 14 points15 points  (15 children)

        Well I for one can't wait to see how much BTC you manage to steal from people dumb enough to send you coin to that wallet. Cuz I'll bet money that if that pot gets big enough greed takes over and you pay off your escrow guy to give you all the cash.

        [–]Delerrar 13 points14 points  (12 children)

        All anyone has is your claim he's running escrow. This is the internet and I hold the opinion that 1. People on the internet are full of shit and 2. It is the best way to rip people off for sums of cash. Until someone proves to me that something is the case then they are completely full of shit.

        I will say this. First time anyone's ever called me a troll have an upvote.

        [–]Delerrar -2 points-1 points  (2 children)

        Well then I stand corrected, have fun with the bet! I'd have taken you up on the offer but unfortunately I'm not on reddit all the time. But hey guess that's good cuz I would have lost my money.

        [–]Delerrar 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Lol, well you are trying to get ppl to bet about something that they don't want to happen.

        [–][deleted]  (6 children)

        [deleted]

          [–]eminem56 1 point2 points  (4 children)

          Wow that's quite an accomplishment. How do you do all of that work; do you not sleep? What's your secret. I want to work that efficiently.

          [–]JAndiz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

          ...clearly you haven't read Gwern's material. Modafinil, obviously!

          [–]eminem56 1 point2 points  (1 child)

          I know I was trying to be sarcastic, which is kind of hard to do online.

          I knew that is an impossible task. Did you really believe that was an honest question? Do you think anyone would actually believe you there? Society can't be that dumb. Let's hope not.

          [–]KansasBibleCompany 3 points4 points  (1 child)

          Definitions

          • BMR = kss62ljxtqiqdfuq.onion
          • Sheep = sheep5u64fi457aw.onion
          • The exact definition of 'not operating' includes but is not limited to this: on noon EST of 30 April 2013 (6-months) or 30 October 2014 (12-months), if Nanotube can visit the relevant black-market, create a buyer account, deposit bitcoins, and order an item, then the site is operating. If deposits or new accounts or purchases are not allowed or not possible, it is not operating.

            At his own discretion, the arbitrator can take into account other factors, like widespread reports that a market has been raided and turned into a sting operation.

          These clauses sound like they are designed to get out of paying a losing bet. A market could shut down new user registration for a number of reasons; it doesn't imply that they have become non-operational. I'm sure they could bribe SMP or BMR to shut down registration for a short period of time if the stakes were high enough.

          The "other factors" are also very subjective and liable to be tampered with. I think it was last week that people were claiming that Sheep staff were stealing their money, and the /r/sheepmarketplace link on the sidebar was replaced with "SCAM". Sure people are skeptical of Sheep, but that was a mostly unfounded accusation. Especially if OP knows the right people, they can easily perpetuate a rumor like this for their own scam.

          Not to mention that they defined BMR and Sheep by certain .onion URLs. BMR has already had to change their URL, and one of the newer addresses is listed in OP's post. They could very well say "this URL isn't working" even if the given market is up under a new address.

          [–]reaperx2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          Kmf was working on a more secure market, though he passed it on to someone else to complete. I'm sure he left it in good hands and I think he quit is because of the heat, which is smart on his part.

          I think the market was p2p, but I'm not certain. Kmf is a smart guy and seems like an expert in security. He was involved in some other darknet activities before SR and he hasn't been captured. I'm picturing him as some uber paranoid computer nerd who lives in a bunker

          [–]fuckoffplsthankyou 2 points3 points  (14 children)

          Here's my take on this.

          Even if Sheep/BMR fall, as long as I use PGP and Tor and practice proper OpSec, how will it affect me?

          [–]fuckoffplsthankyou 3 points4 points  (10 children)

          1. Don't make big orders, or understand the risk. Start small and work up.

          2. Understood. The first step to avoiding a trap is knowing of it's existence. Greater care should be taken to avoid this issue in the future.

          3. Transition costs? I had accounts on BMR for months. I feel no fear about the SR fall. I certainly don't feel any uncertainty or confusion.

          My point was, what is the threat to my personal security. If I lose $500 bux (which I think would be my limit) because of a bust, so what? Count yourself lucky you aren't in cuffs.

          If a seller keeps buyer addresses/info, agreed, that is fucking slimy and stupid on the part of the seller, but that's no different from a seller in real life rolling on his clients. Only thing is, chances are I'm several states away and I control what info the seller gets. Some John Doe info doesn't necessarily have to be me. Agreed that buyers should all be much more careful in future about how they get their product, but, encrypt with PGP, encrypt your machine, (plus other steps I won't get into) can help secure, it depends on the user on both ends being smart, which unfortuately is a no bet, but there are ways to secure yourself.

          1. Well, I have several IRL backups so I'm unconcerned with the temporary downing of a darknet drug provider, tho I was very sad to hear of SRs downfall. However, BMR was alive and kicking so there has always been alternatives. Anyway, that's my .00000002BTC

          [–]fuckoffplsthankyou 2 points3 points  (8 children)

          What's the difference between a market being busted and a seller being busted? If the market is busted, the seller shouldn't find incentive to abuse the information any more than they would if they were busted IRL, unless they are the rolling over type. Any seller who keeps info because they think they can use it later is not going to be swayed because the market is "secure". In fact, people should assume that the market is never secure and take steps accordingly.

          [–]fuckoffplsthankyou 2 points3 points  (6 children)

          A market being busted can lead to seller busts?

          Only if they were stupid or careless.

          A market being busted can lead to sellers losing their balances and extorting their buyers which they would neither need to nor dare to do if the market were functioning as usual?

          If a seller is going to extort their buyers, they'll do it whether or not the market is functioning. It's just a matter of time if the seller is so inclined and losing their balances would just be the excuse. Whoever leaves BTC on an exchange or a market is taking a risk, why not withdraw immediately?

          All I'm saying is that there are unethical sellers out there and there are ethical ones as well. The functioning of the market does nothing to stop this, everyone has to take their own precautions regardless.

          [–]fuckoffplsthankyou 1 point2 points  (4 children)

          So in other words, yes. People have been stupid & careless, they are being stupid & careless as we speak, and they will be stupid & careless for the indefinite future. There is no point wishing for a fantasy universe where everyone is a skill cypherpunk whose opsec is perfect.

          I haven't been careless or stupid. If people can't practice proper opsec, perhaps they shouldn't play this game. The tools are there, if people can't, don't, or won't use them, they have no one to blame but themselves.

          No, they won't do it regardless of any and all external events. At the margin, this is false. Once a market has gone down and they are desperate, choices change especially as they no longer have much reputation or future business to forfeit.

          Obviously they will if they have. A market going down and causing desperation is a lame excuse at best. Why would you keep buyer records? Obviously you are doing so to attack a buyer in future which is pretty slimy and has nothing to do with the downing of a website but an inclination to be slimy on the part of the seller. (note: when I said you, I obviously don't mean you)

          Please see the previous point about stupid & careless, and throw in additional observations about how sellers are busy running businesses.

          Please see my point above about stupidity and carelessness. In addition, it takes the click of a mouse to move your money. I can't speak for others but I've never been too busy to click on a button, esp when it involved money.

          I disagree strongly. The design of marketplaces have great influence on the actions of participants. Regulation does, strangely enough, influence people. The checks and balances do change behavior. People react to incentives - you put in escrow, and sellers do not prosper by scamming people; leave out escrow, and you get a lemon market and scammer paradise.

          Feel free to disagree. My point wasn't about escrow, it was about keeping buyer addresses.

          [–]DarknetWanderer 2 points3 points  (1 child)

          1. Why would you leave your coins in the site any longer than you have to? Obviously for vendors this is risky, but potential losses like that are part of operating a business. Almost any vendor doing solid business will only take a small percentage loss of total profit for losing all escrowed funds at any time, and all the vendors have learned their lesson about leaving funds in the site any longer than absolutely necessary. This doesn't apply to customers at all.

          2. There is literally no way to stop vendors from doing this on any site.

          3. More markets are going to spring up in the next few months. The one that is able to provide the best atmosphere, as SR once did, will outcompete the others. I happen to think you're right and that BMR and Sheep will not be the sites to come out on top, but for the time being they work well enough until something better comes along.

          [–]Bigowl 1 point2 points  (0 children)

          Well it looks like you were right!

          [–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (3 children)

          this is stupid

          [–]Alpheus411 3 points4 points  (0 children)

          Mind if I steal your scam idea?

          [–][deleted]  (2 children)

          [deleted]

            [–]tabgrab23 0 points1 point  (2 children)

            30 April 2013 (6-months)

            Should probably fix that if you want a legitimate bet.

            [–]tabgrab23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            Watch some desperate junkie make a bet and then claim you're trying to scam them based on that minor technicality/loophole :P

            [–][deleted]  (1 child)

            [deleted]

              [–]c0rw1n 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              It's blindingly obvious that hosted sites with a (few) operator(s) are ROADKILL at launch.

              The only way an Internet marketplace can work is if it's completely peer-to-peer, where ALL the users are hosting it. And get paid to do so. (With commission fees, like a single operator would.)

              Seems that all the coders with the interest in black markets AND the skillz to make one are selfish greedy idiots who only see the LOLMILLIONS they can skim on sales, and go open sites that are hosted on machines they don't physically control. Then they get raidvanned.

              And now for something completely different, what's the uptime of Bittorrent, again?

              [–]caleborp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              I won't take this bet, but I would bet you that at least one underground market will be up and running at all times for buying and selling illegal goods. Eg. there will never be a time when there is not a black market accessible through tor.

              [–]btayloswishes he had a box after his name 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              "the arbitrator can take into account other factors, like widespread reports that a market has been raided and turned into a sting operation."

              Lol. . . fire up those hidden accounts and spark some rumours.

              [–]L3T 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              I know we all assume that the feds want to shut down BMR and Sheep, but what if they dont?

              In australia we are seeing an unprecedented crack down on bikie gangs and organised crime, but seemingly relaxed state on SR like 'small purchases'. Originally there was a crack down and it was hard to get through our borders, but not in the last 6 months. Maybe stretching their resources too far, but sometimes I think they have finally been giving an unofficial 'green light' to allow the safer drug markets online than street level?

              I think DPR ruined it himself by getting involved with a hit and a large deal on 1kg of coke. Otherwise the authorites were interested and 'watching' this new experiment called Silk Road as a mock, legalised trial drug market place. THey would never admit to running one for themselves, but the government must admit to how attractive extra taxes from such sales would be. "But lets just keep it quiet for now and take a measley % of all sales as admins".

              [–]Bukujutsu 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              One to go!

              Does this count? I mean, it's still up, but it's a scam now (Sheep).

              [–]Kyle_Crafty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Guess you were right.

              [–]Zevee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              I like how it ended up. Good job guessing. Dont know if I should call BMR out but I guess so.

              [–]Gomba1 1 point2 points  (5 children)

              I am putting my money where my mouth is.

              Doesn't that mean that you should be placing 3BTC against every 1BTC? (to prove how strongly you are sure in your theories, that i agree with personally)

              What you are offering is that people should put their money where your mouth is.

              [–]Gomba1 -1 points0 points  (3 children)

              m... no? Do you understand how odds and probabilities wo

              Yeah, But that's irrelevant for what i ment, i think that when someone offers to make a bet about a point they strongly believe in - the odds should be much more appealing to the other side.

              change the bet like that - anyone can place 1BTC if BMR/SHEEP will stay open after 6 months - they win 3BTC, and drop these technical stuff - open = not seized by LE or shut down publicly by the admin, regardless of domain change, temporary problems (DDos or whatever) or closure of registrations, and there you have an interesting bet :)

              [–]Gomba1 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              fference from the offered odds, and extremely pessimistic. I could not offer those odds and expect to break-even, much less make anything.

              Obviously that was an example, but do consider some change in the odds, it will be shame if there were no takers because of this.

              to optimists about the two serves. Guess your right, but I find it hard to believe there are people willing to put their money about that in less than a month after SR... That alone, will be amazing to see, i think that even backopy would not bet on that :)

              [–]exessmirror 0 points1 point  (2 children)

              I thought BMR would be busted 2 weeks ago (meaning they are operating 2 weeks after the time i thought they would be busted)

              And sheep just sucks, i give it 3 months

              [–]DarknetWanderer -1 points0 points  (1 child)

              Fuck your stupid bet, you say you "bet" they're down in a year, but you give the odds at less than 50/50. Anyone taking that bet would have to be very naïve to trust the coin will still be there in a year, and who knows what the value of bitcoin will even be then.

              Besides, who gives a fuck how secure they are? Have you heard of PGP? Unless you're using your real name as your username I'm not sure how it matters. It's simple. Don't keep bitcoins in the site any longer than absolutely necessary, and use PGP. Be diligent in how you purchase and transfer your bitcoins and don't take unnecessary risks.

              [–]canwegoback -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

              Nominated for worst thread /r/silkroad 2013

              [–][deleted] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

              fuck BMR and sheep, i bet 40BTC your mom dies within a year

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